Whaaaaaaa? Marion Barber might not be the only option in Dallas??? Go on ...

Winning your fantasy draft is easy. And free. Well actually, the free part is easier than the easy part, if that makes sense. (Why? Because you only need to hit up FleaFlicker and rock out all the free fantasy football you can find.)

But easy isn't hard, and before I actually start confusing myself, let's cut to the chase: there are tons of "sleeper" backs in fantasy football drafts this year. And, handily, they can be broken up into convenient little tiers.

Power Naps
Chester Taylor, MIN -- I know, right? He's not even really a sleeper, just because he'll see tons of carries. But the fact, whether or not you choose to recognize it with your number one overall pick, is that Adrian Peterson hasn't finished a full season of football since he started getting money to play football. Or, if you prefer, since high school. If he goes down again, Taylor will be an absolute monster.

Ronnie Brown, MIA -- Brown just returned to practicing sans cast but all you hear out of Miami is "Ricky this, Ricky that", because everyone thinks Ricky Williams will start and carry the rock for the Fins. I'm not buying it, personally. Brown was a top five running back on easily the worst team in the entire league -- one that should have been passing from the 10 minute mark of the first quarter based on deficits -- until he got injured. Sure, he might not dive right in and be a dominant back, but when he's your RB3 or RB4, the upside is too good to pass up.

Ever hear of the economic principle, the law of diminishing returns? Basically, if production of an item reaches a certain point, it's counter-productive to create more output because the profits will decrease for each additional unit. In fantasy football, there is an opposite affect on players with question marks heading into the season.
A perfect example is Steve Smith. I already own him on multiple teams. Why? He's suspended for two games. Because of this suspension, however, owners are letting him fall too far on draft boards. You just have to approach drafting Smith like he has three bye weeks instead of one. Plug those holes with a someone like Nate Burleson -- who will be Matt Hasselbeck's top receiving option in the early season -- in the next few rounds and you're covered.

Smith is going to put up monster stats with Jake Delhomme back and other receivers attracting coverage this season in his 13 games. The point of profitable returns for Steve Smith is about round five. He can't fall lower than that.

Chad Johnson has a partially torn labrum in his right shoulder. Yet, if you listen to Ocho Cinco, he is going to be just fine. I am not a medical "expert" per se, but I think that when you have anything that's torn in a important part of your body, you are not "fine".



Still, the loudmouthed Bengals wide receiver is maintaining that nothing is wrong.

Johnson did not seem to worried about the injury, and claims he will be ready for the season opener at Baltimore on September 7.

"I'm lifting my normal weight. I do everything normal now. Everything," said Johnson, who caught 93 passes for 1,440 yards and eight touchdowns last season. "It's been what? Eight days? (since the injury) I'm back to normal."

It takes me eight days to recover from wakeboarding for a weekend, and while I'm no professional athlete, wakeboarding is no partially torn shoulder muscle. So forgive me if I'm not entirely sold on Johnson's health.

Oh, and it turns out the Bengals might not be sold either. They have T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Johnson and Chris Henry (again!), so if everyone's healthy, the very last thing they need in the entire world is a wide receiver. Yet, SCOOP Mortensen is reporting that Rudi Johnson is on the block in Cincy, as the Bengals are looking to get a wide receiver in return for the former stud running back.

Trent Edwards, I think we all believe, is the starting quarterback in Buffalo. The possibility of J.P. Losman somehow snaking Edwards' has seemed pretty far fetched up until now. However, with Edwards down because of injury, J.P. impressed some people -- against the Colts on Sunday.

J.P. Losman was efficient in replacing Trent Edwards (bruised knee). Losman finished 13-of-19 for 108 yards before hurting the thumb on his throwing hand while making a handoff on Omon's 1-yard TD run. Coach Dick Jauron said Losman's injury was nothing serious.

It was exactly the kind of performance the Bills wanted to see.

"He did a terrific job," Jauron said. "He handled the information, we got in and out. It was a noisy game, and it could have been noisier but we got off to that good start."

Muy interesante. I certainly don't think Losman is going to steal the job from Edwards while he's injured, but a strong preseason performance could certainly do a lot to tighten up the leash on Trent, especially when you think about the playoff aspirations that Buffalo has to have this year.

Look, I understand that attempting to predict regular season success by sorting through preseason (exhibition, whatever) statistics makes roughly the same amount of sense as the average Ewok, but there is one thing you can tell from preseason numbers. When your gut tells you a particular player is going to have a bad year, it never hurts to confirm that hunch by looking at their performance in the pointless games. Let's take a look at some of the duds so far through the 2008 exhibition season.

Larry Johnson - Everybody says Larry Johnson is done based on his insane workload, 2007 burnout, and support of the worst offensive line in the NFL, but let's take a look at the numbers. As suspected, on the second highest total number of carries (35) in the league, Larry piled up a paltry 118 yards. That's a whopping 3.3 yards per carry with one touchdown folks. His longest rush went for 18 yards. If you're scoring at home, put him down as "do not touch with a radiation suit."

Matt Forte - Being a Bears guy, my colleague Matt Snyder is gonna string me up for this one, but the Bears line is just downright terrible. Forte ran the ball 25 times thus far and has yet to touch the century mark with 86 rushing yards total. Unsurprisingly, he has not spent time in the endzone either. Do not consider this a testament of his inability, but rather confirmation that whoever lines up behind Orton is gonna get killed out there.

So, you're closing in on your Fantasy draft and you've done your draft lottery and you realize you won't be grabbing one of the coveted prizes that is LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson. Who doesn't want the thrill of picking #1? Who wouldn't want the assurance of having the sure thing. Yet, it's not the end of the world. Relax, it happens.

Well, I'm facing that predicament as we speak. The final hours are ticking away before my first "official" Fantasy draft takes place. And yet, another year and yet again I won't be picking off the top line. It feels like I've been here before, probably because I have been...for as far back as I can remember. Well, no use crying over the fact, for tonight I've got to just cope and accept my fate as the #8 pick.

Now, normally around here it's always a relaxed, yet informative tone. However, I'm turning the page ever so slightly today in order to focus more on what makes Fantasy Football so addictive. And that's the hype, the fun, the drama, the anxiety and more importantly the draft.

Let's face it, the draft is arguably the best thing about Fantasy Football. If you draft with your league in person it's a great excuse to drink in excess and heckle your buddies for a few good hours. Well, maybe your draft isn't quite like that and my apologies for you if that's the case. Anyhow, for me the draft is probably the best two hours of the season...give or take.

And that brings me to the the harsh reality that most of us will face this week. And that's having to deal with our pecking in order in the draft. So, just how can you cope with the realization you're either wedged in the middle of your draft or stuck at the end? Well, just a few suggestions come to mind.

ESPN Scoopmaster Chris Mortensen is reporting that the Cardinals are going to enter the 2008 season with Kurt Warner as their starting quarterback ... not Matt Leinart.

Obviously, Leinart's case for backup QB last night was part of the decision (if the decision has been made, we all know that sometimes Mort likes to throw stories up before anyone else), but not the sole reason:

The source said Leinart's training-camp performance has been uneven, and the Cardinals are concerned about his arm strength and consistency.

I, for one, really thought the Cards were going to give the job to Leinart at least for the few first regular season games, as the line has been constructed for a left-handed QB and Warner's not going to be around forever. On the flip-side, if Warner gives them a better chance to win, they should definitely head into the season with him as the starter. It's a clean slate for every team in the first week of September, and the NFC West isn't exactly a beastly division.

I'll start off by giving an arm-bash to Mathew Greber on this idea. He's been running a series called, "Mistakes Were Made," a look back at some things that escaped fantasy players and experts alike prior to the '07 football season. I'll put on my prognosticator hat and give a whirl as to some mistakes that are happening currently in fantasy drafts.

If you read an unfamiliar term, it should be covered in the fantasy football glossary. If you are are looking for a league, jump on fleaflicker. It's free, and really sweet.

The Top Mistake? Ladies and Gentlemen ... it ain't even close:

Larry Johnson
Yeah, that's right. Larry Johnson on your fantasy team is a big mistake. I'm seeing him go in the late first round or early second round personally, and I'm viewing an ADP chart right now where he's ranked 11th overall. Ugh. I'm not going to list all the players being drafted behind him on the ADP chart who deserve to be taken over him, because it would take too long. I will, however, list the most egregious examples, in no particular order: Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Grant, Reggie Wayne, Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Larry Fitzgerald, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney, and Andre Johnson.


Again, I'd rather own a myriad of other dudes than Johnson, but those are the most glaring.

Why?

While the offensive line might not represent a direct draft day decision for your roster, few areas of knowledge can offer a competitive advantage in fantasy football like having a good grasp of the various units of trench soldiers around the league. Over the course of a couple weeks, I'll break down every NFL team's offensive lines into five tiers: the crème de la crème, the highly competent, the serviceable, the grim, and the bunk.

It's important to note that the "grim" group is not the worst of the bunch, but rather just the 2 stars out of 5 where you give an extra star because you are friends with the production assistant. To paraphrase the words of a wise old sage, this group offensive lines is "like a slot machine, they pay off once in a while but then they'll rob you clean." If you really have faith in a skill player on one of these teams, go ahead and pull the trigger. This does not necessarily imply impending doom for all those involved, but tread gently down this path for these units are not very good.

The Chicago Bears: All you Matt Forte missionaries might want to rethink your calling. The Bears line is awful. The front office invested in first round manbeast, Chris Williams, to shore up the line with a strong left tackle, but he just went under the knife for a herniated disc in his back. If he can play, which will be half a season at best, the Bears cannot help but improve from last season. If not, things look pretty much the exact same: the worst run blocking in the NFL. Center Olin Kreutz, despite his age, remains a top player at his position. The rest of the spots would be equally well served with a roll of fiberglass insulation.

2007 Sacks Allowed: 43

2007 Yards Per Carry: 3.1

With the news of Steven Jackson's holdout concluding, I'm sure Rams fans and SJax's fantasy owners alike are toasting to the renewed hope in the dangerously-close-to-being-lost 2008 season.

As a guy who once coached my alma mater would say: "Not so fast, my friend."

The Rams still have offensive concerns. Let's sort through them.

The Offensive Line
Orlando Pace has missed practices with soreness in the surgically repaired shoulder which ended his season after just one game last year. One of the main reasons the Rams offense took such a hit last year was the absence of Pace. You could even argue -- I certainly would -- that's what led to Marc Bulger's injury problems, considering Pace is his backside protection and the injuries were to his dome and ribcage.

Guard Mark Setterstrom and tackle Brandon Gorin are already out for the season. They were slated as backups, but the line durability and depth was a major concern heading into the season, as the Rams used 13 different starters for the five slots last year.