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NHL Fantasy Analysis: Is the Cheechoo Train Off Track?

Poolies all over the continent must be scratching their heads about what to do with one 27-year old Jonathan Cheechoo, the spunky winger who piled up an amazing 56 goals just two seasons ago.

Once again, Cheechoo is off to an incredibly slow start, with just three points in his first eight games, and ZERO in the first five. Fans and fantasy league owners of Jon's must be wondering just WHO is the real Cheechoo?
SEASON  GP  G A PTS SOG SH%
03-04 81 28 19 47 175 16.0
05-06 82 56 37 93 317 17.7
06-07 76 37 32 69 250 14.8
07-08 8 2 1 3 22 9.1

Obviously, Cheechoo's amazing 56-goal performance, like Brady Anderson's 50-home run performance over a decade ago, was a one-year fluke where the stars in the sky aligned right and everything went right for the Sharks sniper.

So, what to make of Cheechoo? Just how much can we expect from somebody with his production curve?

1. Cheechoo's shooting percentage is abnormally low. He's still getting almost three shots per game, suggesting that he's still generating scoring chances. You can expect the goals to start going in soon enough. Somebody with a past history of burying the biscuit wont' stay dry for long.

2. Cheechoo is still playing on the same line with one Joe Thornton (after a brief demotion). Getting passes from one of the league's premier playmakers ensures Cheechoo will continue to get prime scoring opportunities.

Given Cheechoo's career path and deriving numbers from his previous production, we could expect Cheechoo to score about 32-35 goals, at least, over the rest of the season. Cheechoo's overall point totals might finish a little lower than last season, but now is not the time to panic.

Sell or Keep? Keep. Some other fantasy league GM might try to pilfer this struggling star from your hands, but all of the pieces are in place for Cheechoo to recover to his previous norms. 40-50 goals is probably a stretch, but another 35-goal season is almost a certainty.

Besides, how can you bet against a guy who can do this?

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