Fantasy Quick Hit: Tejada Rejuvenated?

Miguel Tejada went from a fantasy fave to a pariah in one season. No one wanted him where he really should have been drafted. His ADP (average draft position to the fantasy novices out there) proves as much. He was falling into the 60-range in many drafts. I took him as a late-thirties pick in one draft with Derek Jeter still on the board and got destroyed by a few owners.

Just look at the downsides:

- He suffered through full-season career lows in several offensive categories, including HR, RBI, R, and SB.
- For the first time in seven seasons he did not play all 162 games (in fact, he only played in 133).
- He was named in the Mitchell Report, so apparently he has to stay clean now and performance will be impacted in the power categories. You know, because they can test for HGH so easily.
- In a recent development we found out that he's actually 33 years old and not 31.

Of course, Miggy is out to a scorching start ... .370, 4 HRs, 18 RBIs, and 16 Runs in only 21 games. He's never come even close to his current .630 slugging percentage.

In light of all this, people are proclaiming him a sell-high candidate. What do I think?

Some people insist on splitting a pair of kings against a dealer's shown five or six in blackjack because they could win two hands instead of one. My thought was always, "why mess with a winner?" What is the point of playing fantasy sports if you have to bail on a guy every time he's hot? This isn't Chris Shelton (a nice plug for our new Fantasy FanHouse feature -- Stud or Shelton). All signs pointed to a bounce-back for Miggy this season for those paying attention -- until we saw he was two years older than we thought. Still, 33 isn't old. You know who else is 33? Jeter. So he's not old.

As I mentioned earlier, last year was the first time in memory he didn't play every game. If you are willing to take a leap with me that it was an aberration, here's what his prorated numbers for a 162-game 2007 look like: 88 runs, 99 RBI, 22 HR, and a .296 average. So he doesn't suck.

Let's look at the transition from team to team. Camden Yards is a very solid hitter's park, but so is Enron (I know it has a new name, by the way) -- as long as you are a right-handed pull hitter like Miggy. That's a push as far as I'm concerned. Consider the recent traditional increase in stats by players in the first year when they move from the American to National League, then realize how much easier it is to hit NL Central pitching than AL East. I'm confident in predicting an upsurge in his numbers in light of this. Plus, his lineup last year at Baltimore didn't even remotely compare to having Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee as power-mates. He can hit third and have incredible protection or fifth and have a billion ribbie opportunities. So he should improve upon last year's numbers.

If you want to sell high on guy that's hitting 74 points higher than last season and slugging almost 200 better, well, that's getting the most bang for your buck ... unless the stigma of everything I listed earlier clouds prospective buyers. I still don't think you can full value for him, as evidenced by my colleague telling me he may land Tejada for Julio Lugo and Clay Buchholz (non-keeper league) today. That's insane.

For the record, his home run pace is 30 and I like him to maintain -- if not exceed -- that. He's not going to prison this season for perjury, either. The court system doesn't work that swiftly. I do think there's still a stigma, though, and I know Miggy's going to hit like a stud all season.

As with a pair of cowboys in blackjack, I'll stand.