There is no one hotter in Major League Baseball than Cliff Lee right now. He is 5-0, he has a 0.96 ERA and he has 32 strikeouts in just under 38 innings. But if you own him in fantasy baseball, you need to shop him immediately.
Lee might not come crashing back to Earth in a painful manner; after all, his 2005 demonstrates that he does have a skill set to pitch well. But besides the fact that his peripherals are telling for some statistical recession, what he's doing right now is mind-blowing just in terms of history. From BP Unfiltered:
We have game logs going back to 1956, courtesy of Retrosheet and Baseball-Reference.com. Since 1956, do you know how many pitchers had made three straight starts with 8+ innings, <=3 hits, <=1 walk, and 8+ strikeouts? Here's the list, which I have put in alphabetical order for your convenience
Cliff Lee.
Here's that list again, sorted by last name:Think about that, folks. Cliff Freaking Lee has just put together one of the best five-game stretches in the history of baseball. Now, the strikeout rate is extremely nice. Because Lee is whiffing bats, this doesn't stink of a total fluke (it's not.) But take a look at some of the other stats that we like to hawk on around here.
Lee, Cliff.
That's it. Lee's stretch of pitching is unmatched in at least 50 years, and quite possibly ever, when you consider that strikeouts tend to decrease in frequency as you go back in time.
His FB% on the season is 46.6. But exactly ZERO % of those fly balls have left the ballpark. That won't continue. Neither will his .154 BABIP, which is extremely lucky/friendly. And of course, neither will his 84.6% strand rate.
Pointing these out is not intended to take away from Lee's great run or make you dump him -- but if you own the guy, you have to at least be thinking about selling high on him. I would probably only make the move for a proven stud that's struggling. The injured Grady Sizemore, the struggling Ryan Howard or the not-yet-healthy John Lackey all come to mind.
