We always talk in fantasy baseball about upside, potential, selling high, blahblahblah. Even more time is spent discussing these things than the hours we spend each preseason yapping about how Daniel Cabrera is finally going to turn things around and become a fantasy ace and freakish strikeout monster.Until this season, when, after Leo Mazzone's inability to help D-Cab cut down on his walks, people were relatively quiet. We gave up. And why not? There was no need to burn an early-mid round pick on a guy that would shatter your WHIP and consistently befuddle your lineup with his, um, inconsistency.
But is this season any different? And am I required by fantasy writer law to address him this week? "Yes, kind of" on both counts.
Note that his BB/9 of 3.21 is substantially down from his previous best season in the majors (4.76 last year), but his K/9 has also seen a dip, although not as steep, down to it's lowest point in his career at 5.48. This means he is pitching much more to contact than he has in the past.
And this has led to, in conjunction with a 57.5 GB%, Cabs averaging over 6 and two thirds innings pitched per start.
On the positive side of things, there is the obvious decrease in walks, as well as increase in HR/FB, up to 14.5%. That is "positive", only because it should, in theory, come back down. But if D-Cab is pitching to more contact, as he appears to be, we really have to readjust what we think we know about how many yardballs he's going to give up.
On the negative side of things, besides the fact that he pitches for the playing-over-their-collective-head Baltimore Orioles, he has also been a bit lucky this season. His BABIP is .236, 70 points lower than last year. Again, though, maybe we have to readjust if he is going to be an extreme groundballer, although not that much.
Also, Danny is leaving 81.2% of runners stranded, which is also too high. This is a problem too, considering his drop in K/9 and lessened ability to "pitch around his problems", if I may quote Steve Phillips (and then go hang myself).
The deal is this though: Cabrera is an unknown quantity that seems to be pitching above his head. For that reason, you should sell high. (And if you need a totally concrete answer, No, I do not believe. Unreal. Whatever.)
If you want to believe in the power of upside and potential, hold onto him and hope he has finally evolved -- there are plenty of people who are at worst cautiously optimistic right now -- but you have to be aware that he could potentially implode along with the Orioles.
The other reason to sell high is that his owners have always drooled over his potential and he appears to be fulfilling it, at least on the front of things. That alone -- perceived value > real value -- makes him a worthy sell high. And yes, most everyone may be wary. But there's always someone who wants to believe. Just figure out who that is.
