Stud Or Shelton: Saunders and Wellemeyer Head List of Surprising Starters

Remember Chris Shelton's beastly start in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are having a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

Starting pitching has been relatively topsy-turvy this season. You've got C.C., Bedard, and Verlander collectively sucking. On the other hand, Saunders is tied for the AL lead in wins and Wellemeyer is 7-1. Etc. Etc. Etc.

This is weird, but it's my job to help you sort it out and plan for the rest of the '08 campaign. Let's start with the dude at the right who is throwing a ball at you.

Joe Saunders -- He's 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Those numbers alone say "elite starter." He also plays for the team that wins games, so he should keep piling up wins. As for the other numbers, I'd be worried. In 82 innings he's only struck out 39 guys. If you aren't a power pitcher, you can survive on getting the ground ball, it's just that he's not. 1.21 grounders per flies, teamed with his unGodly .238 allowed BABIP. This means that he's received an inexplicable amount of luck in regards to the type of contact being made.

Verdict: Shelton. Big time Shelton.

More after the jump ...

Todd Wellemeyer -- Everytime someone talks about Cards' pitching guru Dave Duncan being a genius I hear "ANTHONY REYES ... KIP WELLS!" blaring in my ear in stereo. Still, there are many more examples of guys pulling a Wellemeyer under his tutelage. Coming into this season, Wellemeyer's numbers were disastrous. As a Cubs fan, I'd seen flashes of what could be a good pitcher in there, but it was eventually buried in a pile of futility. It would seem that Duncan found the silver lining and beautifully exploited it this year. 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA so far, as well as a decently good 62 K in 80 innings. Sure, his BABIP against is .258, but it's always been low for him, even when he sucked (.286 career allowed BABIP).

Verdict: Stud. He's legit and will remain so all season.

Jesse Litsch -- How about this business? You've got focus on Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, and the studly young duo ... then Uncle Jesse comes from out of nowhere and straight deals. He's 7-2 with a 3.45 ERA currently with only 11 free passes. Well, it's not really from out of nowhere. He's been steadily progressing in the minors for the past three years, culminating with a 2.24 minor league ERA last season before his call. He just turned 23 in spring training, too, so keeper leagues take note.

Verdict: Stud. Quasi-stud for the rest of this year, legit stud in the future.

Aaron Laffey -- Just as I correctly predicted in Spot Jobs, he's already on his descent. A 1.59 ERA became a 2.98 in just a couple of starts. His minor league ERA was always around 3.00 and he's shown the ability to have good stuff, but he just doesn't strike out enough guys to keep the ERA down where it is. The .271 allowed BABIP is low for him, too, even after the catastrophic start in Texas. He's gonna get rocked a few more times. He's only 23, though, so don't bail in keeper leagues.

Verdict: Shelton for '08, but he has a bright future.

Ryan Dempster -- Greebs already did this little dance on my boy Dempster. Things have changed since that post, though. "Dumptruck" isn't going away. He currently sits with a 7-2 record and a sparkling 2.90 ERA. Walks were a problem earlier this season, but he's gotten those under control. I wanna throw away pitching stats here and just proclaim that he's a different guy. In the off-season he committed himself to an intense workout regimen and transformed himself back into a starting pitcher. Here's an example: he's a good hitter now. He's hitting .209, and his career average is .086. He's crushed a double in the gap in each of his last two starts and he's bar none the best bunter the Cubs have (9 sacs already). This doesn't have anything to do with fantasy, but it's proof that he's done everything to become a complete player this season. That doesn't just go away.

Verdict: Stud, not that I'm biased or anything.

Greg Smith -- Like Laffey, he was also shellacked in Texas on June 1. An ERA that was once 2.54 is now all the way up to 3.74. It will keep going up, he's just not ready yet.

Verdict: Shelton