Is Johan Not Johan Anymore?

Last night a deal passed through in one of my leagues: Lance Berkman for Johan Santana. At first glance, I thought I loved the sell-high on Berk and buy-quasi-low on Johan. Then I started thinking more about what we've seen from Johan in the past season and a half or so as compared to what he was before that. In case you didn't know, here it is. He started to absolutely deal during an outing on August 3rd of 2003. From that point until the end of 2006 (111 starts), his numbers were sick:

63-19, 2.75 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.94 K/BB, and 9.7 K/9. He allowed 76 HR in 756 1/3 innings.

Every inch of those stats is incredibly elite. Keeping that up over the long haul would be easy hall-of-fame status and in the discussion for the best pitcher of all-time. What we've seen since then in 46 starts (hardly a small sample):

22-17, 3.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.26 K/BB, and 9.1 K/9. He has allowed 45 HR in the past 306 2/3 innings.

So his winning percentage has plummeted, ERA has risen a half run, and he's giving up more hits, home runs, and runs.

What does that tell us?

The K difference isn't huge, but the major shift came this season alone when his K/9 has dipped to 7.8 and K/BB is only 3.6. The rise in HRs is actually quite drastic the past two seasons, while the BABIP allowed hasn't changed much. The walks haven't budged, but the hits are -- as I said -- up.

Summary: Johan's not striking out near as many batters as he used to, while he's giving up more hits, home runs, and runs without losing control ... and the hits haven't been statistically lucky.

Translation: One of two things can be taken from this noticeable shift in performance. He could either be the victim of an adjusted approach by hitters through advanced scouting where they learned how to better deal with his stuff, or his stuff is simply not near as good as it once was -- and this is the much more likely scenario.

Verdict: He's a stud. Yes, still. But he's not Johan circa 2006. Many fantasy players still get starry-eyed when they see the name -- we probably have to start using his full name again to avoid confusion. If you own him and you find a fellow owner that fits the bill, it's time to commit a fantasy felony by grabbing an elite hitter for him. His ADP for the past two years was in the top five each time. He's not that great. I'd rather have Brandon Webb. If you can get Berkman, Chase, Hanley, etc. for Johan in a trade it's a superb deal.

Specific trade questions? Hit us up!