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Best running team in football. If anything they'll be better at running the ball this season. The Vikes have committed to a better balance between passing and running, which will (hopefully) prevent teams from stacking the box against the run -- opening more running lanes. Tarvaris Jackson has experience under his belt and is unchallenged as the starter, not to mention they signed Bernard Berrian in the off-season to give him a legitimate NFL wideout. Adrian Peterson has a year of NFL experience, and Chester Taylor is an able-bodied complement to Peterson. Expect the same, if not better, numbers as last season from the ground game.
The Breakout
He's not going to be a pro-bowler or even a fantasy starter, but "breakout" is defined as someone whose eventual value exceeds the value he held on draft day. Tarvaris Jackson is going to be avoided in nearly all drafts, or possibly taken as a third string fantasy QB with the hopes of upside. By the end of the year, he'll pick his spots well enough to be worthy of a backup fantasy QB for bye-week replacement or injury replacement purposes. He'll get rushing yards -- which is such a huge bonus for QBs -- avoid the interception quite well, and throw for 150-200 yards a week with a passing TD per game.
The Bust
I know contracts create enormous hype, especially when you move to an offense that I already deemed to have an up-and-coming passing attack. Still, if you see Bernard Berrian's name appear on your draft board around the same time as Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, or Lee Evans -- to name a few -- please mock and ridicule the drafter until he/she leaves the room in tears. This is still a running team. In my analysis on Jackson, please remember that breakout/bust words are terms that relate to value. Jackson is valued so little he's a good breakout candidate. Berrian is not. He's valued as a low-end 2nd fantasy WR in several circles, and he's not even close to that good. Expect 900 yards and about five TDs; any more and you're fooling yourself.
The Depth Chart
QB1 - Tavaris Jackson
QB2 - Brooks Bollinger/Gus Frerotte/John David Booty
RB1 - Adrian Peterson
RB2 - Chester Taylor
RB3 - Maurice Hicks
WR1 - Bernard Berrian
WR2 - Sidney Rice
WR3 - Bobby Wade
TE1 - Visanthe Shiancoe
K - Ryan Longwell
The D/ST
The Vikes were the third best fantasy D/ST unit last season, and they could very well be the best this year. The Williams boys clog the middle for opposing runners, freeing up multiple other positions for better pass coverage. Up and comer Chad Greenway now has a year under his belt and will only get better, and they added pro bowl defensive end Jared Allen and his 15.5 sacks to the edge. Add in the playmaking corners -- Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin -- and you have quite a beastly defense in both real life and fantasy.
The Skinny
This should be one of the stronger teams in the NFL, as long as the passing attack provides good offensive balance. For our purposes, though, you have a top two overall player (Peterson is second only to LDT -- if anyone), a top echelon D/ST, and a handful of mediocrity. You must handcuff the injury-prone Peterson with the very capable Taylor. I also believe that Jackson exceeds his low expectations, but he still won't be worth using more than four weeks as a starter. Longwell is a decent-at-best kicker, Berrian is overrated, and the other options are all likely useless. It's pretty top heavy, and surely a better real team overall than fantasy.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-24-2008 @ 6:05PM
Peter said...
As a Vikings fan who does his best not to be too homer-ish, it's nice to hear someone else predict 150-200 yds and 1 TD per game from T.Jackson. If you're correct about that and his rushing and avoiding INTs, this will finally be a year where I'm not more excited about my fantasy team than Minnesota's season.
The fact that you predicted the D/ST to be the best this year withot even mentioning EJ Henderson, D.Sharper, M.Williams and T.Johnson (rookie S 2nd round) makes it even better.
Fantasy-wise, I've been hoping to draw a high enough pick to grab Adrian Peterson in the first round and hope to handcuff him with Taylor in the 3rd or 4th round (depending on how fast the mid-tier RBs go), and possibly target T.Jackson as a #3 QB (not mention grabbing the D/ST if possible), but I think I'm probably going to be laughed at as a homer. You may notice that I didn't mention the WRs or TEs though, and that's becasue I'm honest enough to admit that they'd likely be a very bad value.
Still, does that justify taking the purple for RB1, RB2, QB3, and D/ST, or am I really a hopeless homer?
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6-24-2008 @ 10:08PM
Ryan said...
Hmm, you say the Vikes signed a "legitimate" WR in Berrian but then you say he's medicore and overated and its not even close to a low end #2 fantasy WR?...Mixed signals?...I'll take those 70 recepts in a ppr league and i'll also take those 900-1000 yards recieving to..No mention of Sidney Rice, why not? All the other "experts" are all over this kid...
And Peterson is injury prone because he missed 2 games after taking a shot on the knee? Oh thats right, he got hurt in college a few times...Taylor is a must have handcuff because of AP's "injuries"..You can say that about any team since the NFL is basically a 2 back system league now..
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