The Fantasy FanHouse team will occasionally debate pre-draft topics for your perusement, amusement and...something else that rhymes with those two words. Today's topic: If you could choose where you'd be drafting in a ten team league, which pick would you choose and why?
Matthew Greber: Alright, so let's start off at the point that was so ably teased by Snyder in the last Roundtable -- if you could choose what draft pick you had, which one would you take?
If folks don't mind, I'm going to suggest that we assume it's a 10-team league which seem to be the most prevalent.
We actually have had this rule in my main league for awhile -- or, we did. Folks with the #1 "pick" could then choose what draft pick they actually got. In practice, it pretty much went that the #1 guy would take the first pick, and so on down the ladder with very little variety. So, we scrapped it. But I'm thinking that if we still had it in place, that wouldn't be the same this year. At least it wouldn't be so for me.
Cause if I have my choice, sure -- I'll take LaDanian Tomlinson with the first pick. But if someone else snags the #1 slot, I'd prefer #10 to anything else. I'll take two of Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch there and be just as happy as I would be with LDT and whoever is left at #20 and #21.
Fantasy FanHouse: What say you?
Will Brinson: I want, in order: 1,2,3 and then 10,9,8; essentially I want top three or a bottom pick. I think deciding which of Jackson/Gore/Westbrook is too risky a proposition if I'm being handed the choice of where to start, especially considering it waters down your second round pick.
Hence, I either want top three (LT, Addai, Peterson) or I want to end up in the bottom. The end of the first round is especially attractive this year, because I think QBs and WRs will get taken in the first and second rounds more than normal (certainly Brady, Peyton and Moss will be gone by pick 10 or 12 and I've seen some places where Wes Welker -- WELKAH!!! -- went in the second round).
Because of that, I think that the end of round one affords you the ability to pick up two quality running backs -- Lynch and Grant are two I certainly have my eye on -- and still land a reasonably highly ranked WR at the end of the third round.
MG: I'd love to hear an argument for the middle of the round -- it's generally a nice place to be because you wait the least amount of time between picks. But yeah, unless I'm in a league where I specifically want to draft Peyton, Brady or Moss, I'm with you wanting the bookend picks. Grant and Lynch at the end, especially since it seems that Lynch isn't going to miss anytime despite being behind the wheel for a DUI hit and run, are really nice RBs to snare at the turn.
Welker going that early is awesome. Somehow I think that league is based in Bahstin. Off the top of my head I can name ten WR I'd want before him, but that's probably another roundtable topic.
WB: At least ten -- and it was an experts league, actually. On the other hand, I would say that there is a legitimate argument for a middle round pick, if only because QBs will go so early. First of all, a middle round pick likely nets you your choice of an second or third tier running back (worst case is you reach for someone you like better that's ranked lower). Then, on the wrap, you can either take a second running back, in the likely event that one you wants drops to you.
Or, alternately, you can reach a little and take an upper echelon wide receiver. By doing that, of course, you then need to target a two distinct groups for your third and fourth picks. One being WR's you want (tier them, of course) and RB's you want (same). If one of the top wideouts drops to you a three, you pick him up and go after someone like Michael Turner in the fourth, Jonathan Stewart a little earlier in the fourth or fifth, etc.
It's a riskier proposition, but it's one that's usually best employed with a middle round selection, when you can see how the rosters around you are shaping up, and you don't have to suffer through 9+ picks to see if someone drops each round.
Matt Snyder: Yeah, I'd definitely keep the top pick so you control your own destiny. I also love the wrap/snake pick rounds because you get to pick two dudes in a row. Yeah, it sucks to wait through 19 to 31 picks -- depending on league size -- but if you are planning on taking a WR and a QB in rounds 4 and 5, for example, you don't have to worry about doing the whole, "ok, he has a QB, so he won't take his backup yet ... but what if he does? do I grab Matt Hasselback now?" dance.
If I didn't keep first, I'd drop to ten for this reason and the reasons we've covered above. You can swing two quality RBs. Call me archaic, but I still firmly believe the team in your league that wins it is going to be the one with the most reliable RBs. It's harder to find them now than in the past, and there's a much higher chance you pick the wrong guy, but I'm still taking two and hoping to be smart/lucky.
It's worth mentioning here, with the discussion on when to take QBs cropping up in these discussions, that I have a friend that swears up and down if you are going to take Brady or Manning in the 1st round you have to do it in the top 3-4 picks. The rationale is that your 3rd round pick is early and you can hope to get two quality RBs behind the QB. We've still never see anyone try it, so it's not battle tested ... but it's a thought.
MG: That QB theory isn't terrible...IF you think that it's LDT and A-Pete and then everyone else is in the same category. I think we all agree that in some order, Addai, S-Jax and Westbrook are the next tier. So in my mind, I'm not taking a QB until at least the 6th pick (and then only if I want one of those two guys, and really this year only Tom Brady is a risk to go that high). Your friend's strategy is really looking too far forward, I think -- it's a first round pick based on the THIRD round. Because if you wait until the 5th or 6th pick to take that QB (and certainly one of those two, probably both, are sitting there at that pick), then you get a better RB in the 2nd round than if you'd drafted the QB in the 3rd or 4th slot. It's really a question of who is still there in the 3rd round. And my experience tells me that I am consistently suprised by who slides into the 3rd round in terms of RB2...now, granted, last year that got me Cedric Benson, but that's not the point - last year, Benson was - erroneously - considered a fine pick at RB2. So, I'm not taking a QB with the 3rd or 4th pick if Joe Addai or Steven Jackson are sitting there instead.
Sounds, though, like we are all in agreement - we want a top 2 or 3 pick, or the 9th or 10th pick. That leaves five slots (4-8) that none of us want...which means we have to start thinking about strategies for those slots...since the odds are just as good we'll get those picks as they are that we'll get the ones we want.
Thanks, guys, for yet another good Roundtable. We'll be back in awhile with yet another topic!
