Hear that? It's the pitter-patter of fantasy football season approaching. Fantasy FanHouse is here to get you ready by previewing every team from a fantasy perspective.Meet The ...
Nic Cage of the NFL. I don't know if it was his awful attempt at an accent in Con Air or what, but Cage just seems like a bad actor. Yet there he is bringing in all kinds of money with the National Treasure franchise, and he's even won an Oscar. You looked at the 2007 Jags and saw a diminutive running back flanked by a walking injury behind an inexperienced QB who had to throw to an awful receiving corps. Much like Cage, they got it done ... so why would 2008 be any different?
The Breakout
It looks like the Jags decided that David Garrard needed some receiving help, so they got him some in the off-season in the form of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson. Both had fallen out of favor in their previous situations, yet sport undeniable talent. I'm going with Williamson here. He's still a young speedster, and has been heaped with praise early on in camp by Garrard. You should be able to get him close to the end of your draft.
The Bust
Once maligned for being terribly injury prone, Fred Taylor ended up being an incredible steal on draft day. Owners reaped the rewards to the tune of 1202 yards rushing and five TDs. Unfortunately anyone who watches football games with any sort of consistency had it pounded into our heads all season by announcers and analysts that he's underrated ... to the point that he ended the season overrated. Mission accomplished, talking heads! Look, I do think that the stigma surrounding Fred Taylor was probably unfair in light of his career numbers (six 1200+ yard seasons), but he's not a top 25 back in 2008 at age 32.
The Depth Chart
QB1 - David Garrard
QB2 - Cleo Lemon
RBBC1* - Fred Taylor
RBBC2* - Maurice Jones-Drew
FB - Greg Jones
WR1 - Jerry Porter
WR2 - Troy Williamson
WR3 - Reggie Williams
WR4 - Dennis Northcutt
WR5 - Matt Jones
TE1 - Marcedes Lewis
K - Josh Scobee
The D/ST
You have to draw the line between fantasy and reality here. The Jags defense is generally regarded as one of the best in the NFL, but they only finished 12th in fantasy points in '07. They finished towards the bottom in forced fumbles and recoveries. It's the anti-Dungy/Lovie ball. The Jags D actually tries to make tackles instead of ripping constantly at the ball. Again, fantasy/reality because it's much less frustrating as a fan of the team, but more frustrating as a fantasy owner. This group has undergone some changes, too. Pro-Bowler Marcus Stroud and Bobby McCray leave the defensive line, while Sammy Knight, Terry Cousin, and Aaron Glenn have departed from the backfield, only adding Drayton Florence. Expect them to be a serviceable bye-week replacement in most leagues, ranking in the top 15, but not top ten.
The Skinny
Much better real team than fantasy, but it's not barren in Jacksonville for our purposes. Assuming Williamson and Porter play well -- I believe they will -- Garrard will see a slight spike in his passing production, putting him in the running for the top ten. He likely resides immediately outside of it. Williamson, Porter, and Williams (who did catch 10 TDs last season) should be taken late in the draft in hopes of a low-risk/high-reward breakthrough. The value here, though, is still in the running game, where MJD is a top 15 back and Taylor's going to get the rock as long as he's healthy. I'm weary of relying on Taylor, but if he's your 3rd RB in large leagues (14-16 owners) or 4th in smaller ones (10-12) you should be okay. Scobee is in low-end starter/high-end backup range. Ignore everyone else.
* -- RBBC = Running back by committee. This means the backs should share an equal amount of time in the backfield, but shows the "listed" starter as the "1."
