As part of the preseason fantasy football preparation, we at the Fantasy Football FanHouse are looking at all angles. One of those, which doesn't always get acknowledged, is what we did WRONG last year, and how we can learn from that this year. There's an old saying about those who fail to learn from history are bound to ... well, do something. As a preface, since entire articles about what any one of us did with our teams have limited appeal, when we write about mistakes "we" made, it's more of a comment on the consensus opinions from last year, and how they went off track. We're caling this feature Mistakes Were Made.
Take, for example, Shaun Alexander in last years draft. Just two years prior, in 2005, he'd had an MVP season with 1880 rushing yards, 28 – yes, 28 – touchdowns and was seen as one of the safest picks in all of fantasy. But in 2006, he fractured his foot (which is pretty important for a running back) and lived up to the Madden Curse, and posted a mere fraction of the stats his owners had paid for.
Then came last year's draft. What to make of him? Supposedly healed and free of any videogame related hexes, Alexander went in most drafts after other so-called locks like LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson and, occasionally, Joseph Addai. And his season turned out even worse than in 2006, causing the Seahawks to send the former MVP packing. Alexander still has no job as of this post.
So what can we learn? What information did we flat out ignore, or at least trivialize out of our decision making? (And let's just once again acknowledge the Madden Curse, and move on, okay?)
His age. Prior to the 2007 season, Alexander was 31, coming off his first major injury as a professional athlete. That's not a good age on a running back, and when we're talking about a running back's age, it's really the age on his legs. This was a back who had no less than 350 touches a season five years in a row, capped by a whopping 370 carries alone in 2005. That's a serious amount of wear-and-tear, and though Alexander had been solid, a crack in the matrix is all it takes.
His line. Some owners were openly concerned about the loss of left guard Steve Hutchinson who left for Minnesota. But many argued that one offensive lineman does not a blocking scheme make. Well, it definitely didn't help things.
His motivation. Look, I actually hate the whole, "He signed a big contract, he's not motivated any longer," or the flip side of gambling on a player looking for that free agent deal. But after you become the highest paid running back in the history of the NFL, one could argue that the hunger might be satiated just a bit.
So what's the takeaway here, aside from piling on a guy who doesn't have a fulltime job right now? Well, who are the candidates we could – and should – apply this logic to?
In my mind, there are three: Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis and Larry Johnson. In Green's case, it's hard to worry too much because he'll never be drafted all that high. (And if you think otherwise, I'm not sure how to put this, but ... you're wrong.) Lewis is another story, and will probably go in the second round in most drafts. I'm more on the fence with Lewis, but he's 29 and has several key injuries on his resume already.
But with Larry Johnson, I'm flat out terrified. But, you say, if you were worried about Alexander's age, no problem! Johnson is a mere child. Ah, my friend, but you are wrong about that – he seems like a kid still, having sat behind Priest Holmes, but Johnson will celebrate his 29th birthday this November. But his true football age is much older. You worry about workloads? Johnson never seemed to recover last season from a 2006 where he carried the rock 416 times, following up 369 touches in 2005. Add to that the injury that knocked him out mid-season and he's virtually an AARP member. (What did he hurt? His foot, just as Alexander did.)
How's his line, you ask? Well, it should be better this year – because it can't get much worse. The Chiefs were dead last in rushing yards, 30th in rushing TDs and pretty much miserable in every other stat. You could argue it's the loss of Johnson, but that's a chicken-and-egg circle. Either way, it's hard to be optimistic.
How about that financial motivation? Well, Johnson got paid before last season (strangely echoing Alexander), and is certainly not going to get a raise anytime soon. If you think money is the carrot on the stick here, Johnson already has a bushel full of carrots.
According to Mock Draft Central, Johnson is currently the eighth running back being drafted, the 10th player overall, with a position of 10.35. Running backs who are going after him are such names as Ryan Grant, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch, Willis McGahee and Brandon Jacobs, as well as the aforementioned Lewis. All of them are, in this writers' opinion, better picks than Johnson.
Johnson is going where he is because of his historical talent, and because he could provide on the upside. But from here, it appears he's Shaun Alexander all over again.
