Five Guys to Avoid If You Want to Win Your Fantasy Football League in 2008

Welcome to Five Guys, a Fantasy FanHouse introduction on how to not play your free fantasy football league looking like Mr. Simpson above.

Tony Romo
I hated him last year and I hate him this year. I'm sorry Cowboys fans. Your bandwagon doesn't have air conditioning and I'm not getting on board. But a lot of people are -- while for the most part he's getting taken in the second round, plenty of people are watching Tom Brady and Peyton Manning go and then ... "Oh no, I just drafted Romo in the first round!!!"

Don't be that guy/gal.

Look at the egg he laid in the fantasy playoffs last year: two games, 471 passing yards, four picks, three fumbles and one passing touchdown. Wow. What a steal in the first round.

Or perhaps the fact that he was only good half the season (he stunk in October and December).

Seriously. You don't want to draft him that early. I promise.

FanHouses Top Fantasy QBs

No. 1 - Tom Brady, Patriots
He'll be grossly overvalued after throwing for 50 touchdowns in 2007, but Brady is the unanimous top quarterback on all our experts' rankings. You should be wary of paying for a career year and taking the plunge on a quarterback in the first round of your draft.

Donald Miralle, Getty Images

No. 2 - Peyton Manning, Colts
Don't be worried about Manning's recovery from knee surgery. If anything, it deflates his value to where you might be able to snag him at a slight discount. Expect Manning, who has thrown for at least 28 touchdowns in five straight seasons, to continue the trend with his juggernaut Colts offense.

Andy Lyons, Getty Images

No. 3 - Tony Romo, Cowboys
Like Brady, the Dallas signal-caller is coming off a career year, where he tossed 36 touchdowns in his second full year as a starter. He won't quite reach that total again, but he's armed with all the weapons needed to have another top-notch statistical season.

Ronald Martinez, Getty Images

No. 4 - Drew Brees, Saints
Half of our experts actually ranked Brees the No. 3 quarterback, an indicator that he's the best value pick out of the top five quarterbacks. Now that the Saints have added Jeremy Shockey, and running back Deuce McAllister is returning, Brees will have no shortage of offensive firepower. Expect him to reach 30 touchdowns for the first time in his career.

Stephen Dunn, Getty Images

No. 5 - Carson Palmer, Bengals
Despite his ups and downs, Palmer has at least been a dependable source for scoring strikes. He's tossed at least 26 touchdowns in three straight seasons. If Rudi Johnson and the Bengals running game can get back on track, he should have no problem avoiding another year rife with turnovers as he connects with one of the best receiving tandems.

Doug Pensinger, Getty Images

Larry Johnson
What on Earth is LJ doing in the first round in almost every fantasy league? Oh, right. He was a monster before Herm Edwards destroyed his body. Forgot about that.

The problem is that Johnson is 29 going on 35 because of the carries heaped on his body over the past few years. He had 752 to be exact in 2005 and 2006, followed by 158 last year in only eight games.

Now, because he had half a season to get healthy, it's entirely possible that he'll be in better shape headed into 2008 and that he might come out kind of warm -- he has Oakland, Atlanta, Denver and Carolina on the schedule early.

But, it's also entirely possible that the Chiefs' failure to restock their offensive line or provide any semblance of a quarterback to keep defenses from stacking the box will result in FAIL.

I'm not gambling on that with my first-round pick, especially when you could have Marshawn Lynch or Ryan Grant there.

Hands!

Roy Williams
I actually like Roy for a myriad of reasons. I find him amusing, he's talented, makes circus catches, and he does crazy pizza delivery stuff. But none of that does me a whole lot of good in terms of fantasy value when a) Mike Martz is gone, b) Jon Kitna is not, and c) you have to take the guy in the first five rounds because of name value. (Just because you don't have to actually pay for the best fantasy football product of all time -- a scientific fact -- doesn't mean you should waste a pick.)

And what awesome name value he is, no? He busted out for 1,310 yards in his "magical third year" (/sarcasm) but other than that, he's never cracked 850. And, to top it all off, he's not the most talented wideout on his team. Calvin Johnson is, and you can get him a few rounds later.

Overvalued Fantasy Stars

Tom Brady transformed into a juggernaut in fantasy football leagues last season. But FanHouse's experts agree that it's foolish to expect anything close to a record-breaking year from the Patriots quarterback this time around. Click through to discover other NFL stars that will be overvalued fantasy commodities this season.

Elsa, Getty Images

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo didn't reach Brady's lofty touchdown plateau, but 36 scoring strikes were more than enough for a career season in 2007. Romo holds an inflated value as a result, and you shouldn't burn a second-round pick based on last year's totals.

Matt Slocum, AP

This will be the third year in a row you'll hear pundits rave about the star potential of Reggie Bush. But he'll be splitting time with Deuce McAllister, and when 2008 comes to a close, we may very well look back to another disappointing season for the dual-threat running back.

Rogelio V. Solis, AP

Here's where fantasy football can be skewed by reality. Many novice owners will put too much stock in Eli Manning's surprising Super Bowl title run. But you shouldn't expect Manning to emerge as a must-start quarterback.

Ross D. Franklin, AP

There's no doubt that Calvin Johnson has the talent to be an elite wideout, but Lions quarterback Jon Kitna has a bunch of other targets to throw to, including top threat Roy Williams. Johnson's a great receiver to draft, just don't take the gamble on him as your No. 2 option.

Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images

The Chicago Bears defense was formidable in name only last season. Allowing 354.7 yards per game to opposing offenses doesn't equate to being 'Monsters of the Midway.' Let other fantasy leaguers buy the name, while you wait on less praised units like the Redskins.

Charles Rex Arbogast, AP

Larry Johnson's 20-touchdown season of 2005 seems like a distant memory now. Coming off a very disappointing, injury-shortened season, Johnson will try to be the driving force on an offense that looks very unintimidating on paper. With Brodie Croyle at QB and a very young receiving corps, this former fantasy stud has the odds stacked against him.

Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images

Much like his record-breaking partner Brady, wide receiver Randy Moss became a supreme force with his 23-touchdown season. But if you want to draft him this year, it will cost you a first-round pick instead of a fourth. In most leagues, it's not worth taking the early leap.

Eric Gay, AP

New Falcons running back Michael Turner has the nickname and the bruising style that everyone gets excited about, but "The Burner" faces an uphill battle in Atlanta with a questionable offensive attack, and he'll be sharing carries with speedster Jerious Norwood.

John Bazemore, AP

Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger won't get totally knocked off his feet this season, but it's unlikely that he throws another 32 touchdowns. For you to get any positive return on the high draft pick it'll take to get him, he'll have to meet 2007's numbers. With the addition of Rashard Mendenhall, there's no guarantee that the Steelers will be so pass-heavy this year.

Chris McGrath, Getty Images

Julius Jones
Hey, I actually like Jones a lot too. Always been a fan and he's talented. Again though, problems. There's the pass-first style of play in Seattle and the fact that the offensive line isn't what it was in Shaun Alexander's heyday.

But primarily the fact that he's in a three-headed-not-so-scary monster of a "running back by committee" in Seattle. Folks, Mike Holmgren has come out and stated that it's going to be a "hot-hand" thing. And one of those hands is T.J. Duckett, a goal line beast.

Remember the last bruiser he ended up in a timeshare with? Not saying Duckett will end up as the new Marion Barber III, but people, everyone is talking about taking him in the fourth or fifth round over guys like Jonathan Stewart, Lendale White, Rudi Johnson and Willie Parker. Simma!

Training FAIL Camp 2008: A Good Start

Reggie Bush
Finally, someone I hate. And not even irrationally! Bush was getting love over my boy "Super" Mario Williams from the beginning, and really, he's done nothing to entice us but date Kimmy Kardashian.

And just like his lady-friend, he's 100 percent, pure, unadulterated hype. He's never rushed -- two years sure, but you've watched him -- for more than 600 yards or averaged more than 3.7 a carry. He's got 14 career touchdowns, and he's really only effective when Deuce McAllister is there to soften up the defense for him.

Now, granted, if it's a point-per-reception league, you certainly want to reconsider the hatred, but everyone else will have bumped him up too -- his 80.5 catch-per-year average is in fact nasty -- so you'll have to spend a second-rounder for sure.

Without the receptions bump, you're still drafting and saying "This is gonna be the year, Reg!" (for which you should be summarily tossed from your league), no later than the third round.

Instead of doing that and reaching on Bush -- or any of the other guys listed above -- be wise like the Houston Texans (a phrase I never thought I would utter) and pass on the hype.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)

8-01-2008 @ 6:07AM

Tracy said...

Romo might be dating a dumb blonde bimbo who can't tell the difference between chicken and tuna, but we had him last year, and did very well. missed winning our league by just a few points. As long as his female friend stays away from the stadium this year, i'm sure he'll do very well for people.

8-01-2008 @ 12:52PM

Mike said...

Wow, sounds like the comments above from the writer are from an Eagles or Giants fan who needs Romo to fail so their team has a chance!!!! Romo is solid, getting better and will be an all time great quarterback in this league and we all know it!

8-01-2008 @ 6:27AM

Paula said...

I remember when Romo was just a back up and saw him play during the exhibition games and said they should start this kid instead of Drew "intercept"-soe! Soon the Dallas fans began to agree with me chanting "ROMO, ROMO" whenever Drew Bledsoe took the field. Eventually the big tuna headed their call and since then we've seen the kid do some great stuff and some pretty hairy stuff but all in all, he's a rookie who was thrown into the lions den without warning and PULLED IT OFF! He's going to be another Brett Favre! GO ROMO!

8-01-2008 @ 1:42PM

Judi said...

Never be another Brett Farve.

8-01-2008 @ 7:53AM

Gail said...

we will get the 6th this season, and by the way Romo isn't with the Blonde Bimbo anymore. So we will see everyone at the Superbowl

8-01-2008 @ 1:06PM

Joe said...

Sorry, but he is. She has been at their training camp and they are tight. :)

8-01-2008 @ 7:56AM

Ryan said...

The guy who wrote this article is an absolute idiot. He must have never played football in his life. Just because players have a couple bad games, that means they are all of a sudden not worth picking up? I will take Romo on my team any year. He needs to wake the f*** up and start learning football before he reports it

8-01-2008 @ 9:25AM

Vickie said...

Ryan: he is talkin FANTASY football; please read what he wrote. He didnt say he wouldnt take him on his REAL football team, he is talking about the affect on FANTASY football. Hello??!!

8-01-2008 @ 11:58AM

Cowboy Dan said...

Do you remember the Fantasy numbers Romo posted last year? Hello??? This guy has no clue on what he is talking about! Romo is a stud and pulls things off that very few QB's in this league can do. He put up ridiculous numbers last year, and was one of the top scorers in Fantasy! I can only hope that he will be my QB this year! He is going to have another monster year, and this time he and the Boys will finish strong and give their franchise a sixth ring!!!!!! God bless Tony Romo and God bless my Dallas Cowboys!!!!!!

8-01-2008 @ 2:33PM

kirk said...

Ryan,you are right on. There are far too many so called experts on tv and this forum that think they know it all,and they don`t know jack. The people who listen to them end up losing and having a lousy yr.. We have to rmember that WE are the ones playing fantasy football and WE choose the players,not them. I have won my league several times and my worste yrs. were when I bought into what these idiots were saying on tv. ect. Romo will do fine. I am Redskin`s fan,but I know he will get hot. Good luck..k

8-01-2008 @ 8:07AM

Beware D-Ware said...

When we win the SB with this 13-3 QB, I will be laughing my butt off. Did I mention he was 13-3 last year? I'll take 13-3 any day of the week, twice on Sunday!

8-01-2008 @ 1:33PM

aj said...

actually the team was 13-3, not romo himself. cowboys have a stellar defense so they could get 13-3 with the giants backup.

8-21-2008 @ 7:16PM

Yeeshkul said...

Excuse me......win a playoff game first before you start jawing about a Super Bowl.

8-01-2008 @ 8:13AM

JAMES said...

I AGREE WITH WHAT EVERY ONE SAID. I HAVE BEEN A COWBOYS FAN ALL MY LIFE AND I THINK TONY ROMO IS DOING A GREAT JOB. IT'S TOO BAD THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE LIKE YOU WHO DONT KNOW WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. SO STAY OFF THE COWBOYS OR FIND ANOTHER LINE OF WORK.

8-01-2008 @ 9:26AM

He is talking about in the FANTASY football league. He's not knocking Romo in real football and didnt say he wouldnt take him on an actual football team.

8-01-2008 @ 8:17AM

Dave said...

Steven Jackson should be there right next to Larry Johnson. Johnson is more talented that Jackson, and both run behind less than mediocre offensive lines.

8-01-2008 @ 8:20AM

All the guy said is something that the cowgirl fans cannot deny. They guy has come up short when the money is on the line. Crocodile tears from TO aside, the guy is a great regular season QB, but two years in a row failed to win games that his team SHOULD have won.

But, then again, the Giants physically beat the heck out of the Cowboys in the NFC Championship game. Not as badly as the whoopin they put on the Pats, but they did control the line of scrimmage.

8-01-2008 @ 11:26AM

Jonah said...

It wasn't the NFC Champonship game...and it took Eli, what five years now, and the Giants defense is what really won it...all of it. 4000+ yds, 36 tds....yeah Romo is a horrible fantasy pick...because only one QB did better last year and it was the only year in his career that he did better than Romo did last year...check the stats

8-01-2008 @ 8:22AM

This link leads to a site that tells you to view the vid, you need to download a new "codec". When you do so, if you don't have anti-virus, you're in trouble. DON"T DO IT.

8-01-2008 @ 9:08AM

Ok, first off Romo is a great player. He is an awesome player. Ok, he had one bad game. Everybody does. He just hasnt come ready to play in the playoffs yet. And you say Brady is better? Yeah HIS TEAM IS STACKED. Anybody could be a good quarterback with that team. Anyone who drafts Romo is in for a good year. I won my league last year with him as my quarterback, and Marion Barber as my running back. I'm a 13 year old kid, and I think anyone who watches Romo go by, is clearly a redskins fan or you're really dumb. Lets go Cowboys I'll be watching.