Here at the Fantasy Fanhouse, we do everything we can to help you prepare for your fantasy draft. (And once your league does their draft, there's no better place to host it than fleaflicker.com.) A little over a month ago, we had ourselves a Fantasy Roundtable about what pick you'd actually prefer in this years draft. Looking over that, I don't think anyone said anything they yet regret (though, undoubtedly, it's just a matter of time).
The general consensus was that ideally one would get either a top-three pick, or work backwards from the 10th pick to capitalize on getting a higher second-round pick.
But what's the flip side of that question?
That is, what's the worst draft pick position?
In my mind, it's a no-brainer that sixth is the worst place to be.
But, you may say, that's crazy talk. With the sixth pick, you can grab either one of the top five running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson, possibly but not necessarily in that order) or the top at their positions, Tom Brady or Randy Moss.
The drop off in all of those positions is notable after those top seven guys, so locking down one of them is a clear advantage.
Ah, but what really sets off a draft is the first two slots. And that's where drafting sixth really starts to sting.After the seven guys listed above, there is another group of running backs that could go in any order, but represent the next tier: Frank Gore, Marion Barber III, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch and Ryan Grant.
Peyton Manning is the next QB who should come off the board, and especially in QB-friendly leagues, he could go this early as well.
Now, it's time for some math. We already had seven picks off the board, and Manning and the other group of backs are another six.
That's thirteen picks. That's the second round pick for the No. 8 team in a 10-team league.
I should state now that I don't want Larry Johnson on my team. He is an obvious injury risk, and plays behind a bleak, injured offensive line, on a team with few other options on offense. But you might feel differently; he's often going in the same bracket as the last tier of backs, often near the top of those standings.
So, just because I don't like him doesn't mean a lot of people feel otherwise.
Who comes after these guys? There's absolutely no running back I could say is clearly the next in line. In QB-friendly leagues, Tony Romo and Drew Brees are next in line, but in what order? And in all other leagues, they aren't remotely options this early. At receiver, names like Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards get mentioned as the possible No. 2 ranking there ... which means you don't have to grab any one of them since you'll probably get one of the others on the way back.
With the sixth pick, you have plenty of options with your second-round pick, but in every position, the talent has all dropped to another tier.
I like plenty of the guys who will be up on the board, and the right guy to pick probably depends on your league. But you are dropping down in the quality of talent at every position, where picks 7-10 each have access to two of those guys. And while the same lack of access to those guys apply to draft picks 1-5, they get better players coming back at them in the third round, all of them still in that next tier across the board.
It's worth pointing out that you can win your league from any slot, and crafty picks in later rounds can often be the key difference. But if you had your choice? You wouldn't want to draft sixth.












Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-25-2008 @ 2:04PM
Larry Whobrey said...
we have an 8 team league and use a little different scoring method than playoff leagues...however, over the last 25 years I've kept records the best place to draft is: 1,8,7 in that order...at #1 one has the first pick, 16th, and 17th picks...this gives you 3 top players in the top 17...no one else has that advantage...the 8th and 7th picks give you 2 plyers out of the top 10...the worst pick has been #5 and #6 in our league...
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8-26-2008 @ 10:21PM
Richard Jude Woerner said...
Then worst picks, the one's that were picked and the individual picking did not know about a major injury, suspension, or some other problem. We all have seen it, a pick based on name only. Reggie Bush, talented RB, but will he have more of an impact then say DeAngelo Williams (sake of an argument). Many players are overlooked because folk's fail to see that players "up swing". Fred Jackson is not only a "hand cuff", but will Lynch stay healthy throughout the whole season. Well, getting back to the worst picks, the one's we drop right after the draft is completed.
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