I'll start off by giving an arm-bash to Mathew Greber on this idea. He's been running a series called, "Mistakes Were Made," a look back at some things that escaped fantasy players and experts alike prior to the '07 football season. I'll put on my prognosticator hat and give a whirl as to some mistakes that are happening currently in fantasy drafts. If you read an unfamiliar term, it should be covered in the fantasy football glossary. If you are are looking for a league, jump on fleaflicker. It's free, and really sweet.
The Top Mistake? Ladies and Gentlemen ... it ain't even close:
Larry Johnson
Yeah, that's right. Larry Johnson on your fantasy team is a big mistake. I'm seeing him go in the late first round or early second round personally, and I'm viewing an ADP chart right now where he's ranked 11th overall. Ugh. I'm not going to list all the players being drafted behind him on the ADP chart who deserve to be taken over him, because it would take too long. I will, however, list the most egregious examples, in no particular order: Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Grant, Reggie Wayne, Braylon Edwards, Terrell Owens, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Larry Fitzgerald, Drew Brees, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney, and Andre Johnson.
Overvalued Fantasy Stars
Larry Johnson's 20-touchdown season of 2005 seems like a distant memory now. Coming off an injury-shortened season, Johnson will try to be the driving force on an offense that looks very unintimidating on paper. This former fantasy stud has the odds stacked against him.
Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images
Tom Brady transformed into a juggernaut in fantasy football leagues last season. But FanHouse's experts agree that it's foolish to expect anything close to a record-breaking year from the Patriots quarterback this time around.
Elsa, Getty Images
Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo didn't reach Brady's lofty touchdown plateau, but 36 scoring strikes were more than enough for a career season in 2007. Romo holds an inflated value as a result, and you shouldn't burn a second-round pick based on last year's totals.
Matt Slocum, AP
This will be the third year in a row you'll hear pundits rave about the star potential of Reggie Bush. But he'll be splitting time with Deuce McAllister, and when 2008 comes to a close, we may very well look back to another disappointing season for the dual-threat running back.
Rogelio V. Solis, AP
Here's where fantasy football can be skewed by reality. Many novice owners will put too much stock in Eli Manning's surprising Super Bowl title run. But you shouldn't expect Manning to emerge as a must-start quarterback.
Ross D. Franklin, AP
There's no doubt that Calvin Johnson has the talent to be an elite wideout, but Lions quarterback Jon Kitna has a bunch of other targets to throw to, including top threat Roy Williams. Johnson's a great receiver to draft, just don't take the gamble on him as your No. 2 option.
Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images
The Chicago Bears defense was formidable in name only last season. Allowing 354.7 yards per game to opposing offenses doesn't equate to being 'Monsters of the Midway.' Let other fantasy leaguers buy the name, while you wait on less praised units like the Redskins.
Charles Rex Arbogast, AP
Much like his record-breaking partner Brady, wide receiver Randy Moss became a supreme force with his 23-touchdown season. But if you want to draft him this year, it will cost you a first-round pick instead of a fourth. In most leagues, it's not worth taking the early leap.
Eric Gay, AP
New Falcons running back Michael Turner has the nickname and the bruising style that everyone gets excited about, but "The Burner" faces an uphill battle in Atlanta with a questionable offensive attack, and he'll be sharing carries with speedster Jerious Norwood.
John Bazemore, AP
Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger won't get totally knocked off his feet this season, but it's unlikely that he throws another 32 touchdowns. For you to get any positive return on the high draft pick it'll take to get him, he'll have to meet 2007's numbers.
Chris McGrath, Getty Images
Again, I'd rather own a myriad of other dudes than Johnson, but those are the most glaring.
Why?
I mean, he's only a couple of seasons removed from being the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy football. Right?
True, but he's also only two seasons removed from being run into the ground in the form of 416 carries. The season before that he nabbed 336 despite carrying the rock less than ten times in five games (when Priest Holmes was healthy). Is it possible that being injured last season saved him from being beaten up on a weekly basis by opposing defenses, thereby freeing him for a return to form this season? Only if you ignore all the other factors.
- The utter lack of a passing attack he'll have in '08 is one of those factors. In '05, Trent Green was throwing for over 4,000 yards to take pressure off LJ. Even Damon Huard stepped in for the injured Green in '06 to compile a 98 QB rating. Brodie Croyle isn't going to perform like that.
- The offensive line in KC used to be generally regarded as the best in the NFL. They helped make Priest and LJ both into superstars. Something happened, though: they got old. Now the majority of them are gone and being replaced by inexperience and less talent.
- Tony Richardson was also around for '05, and he's one of the best blocking backs of all time. Without him in '06, LJ's average per carry went down almost a yard (5.2 in '06 to 4.3).
Those proclaiming last season was a result of his holdout are fooling themselves, because there is just too much evidence to the contrary.
Leave him on the board. Please.
Mistake No. 2Taking low-ceiling receivers in the late rounds as your fifth wideout over potential breakouts
If you only have to play two or three receivers per week and you're sitting there late in a draft with four -- and all your bye weeks are covered -- do not waste your time on a low-upside guy like Isaac Bruce. There's a definite ceiling to his numbers at this age. What you should be doing -- when your perceived active roster fills -- is going after guys that have the potential to be breakthrough studs, considering you aren't planning on ever starting this guy anyway. DeSean Jackson is a guy that comes to mind. He's only behind the fickle Kevin Curtis and the uninspiring Reggie Brown on the Philly depth chart. You know Donovan McNabb is going to throw, so take the flier on Jackson.
Examples of the guys to take in this situation: Eddie Royal, Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Ted Ginn, and Robert Meachem.
Examples of the guys not to take in this situation: Justin Gage, Brandon Stokley, David Patten, Drew Bennett, Muhsin Muhammad, and Amani Toomer.
Beasts of the Backfield
No. 1 - LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Even as he approaches his 30th birthday, Tomlinson is still the undisputed king of fantasy running backs. He's produced at least 1,775 total yards and 15 touchdowns in six straight seasons -- numbers that place him in a class of his own.
Harry How, Getty Images
No. 2 - Adrian Peterson, Vikings
It wasn't all about the highlights for Peterson in his rookie season. The statistics were mind-boggling too, including a record-setting 296-yard game against the Chargers. Durability is a question mark, but his lofty upside is worth the No. 2 spot.
Stephen Dunn, Getty Images
No. 3 - Joseph Addai, Colts
With the full-time gig last season, Addai totaled 704 yards and nine touchdowns over his first seven games played, but wore down in the second half. We expect stronger legs and even bigger numbers from Addai in his third season as a pro.
Andy Lyons, Getty Images
No. 4 - Brian Westbrook, Eagles
He often faces doubts about his ability to last, but Westbrook has thrived with a heavy workload his last two seasons. He's a monster in point-per-reception leagues, and a consistent top threat in any format.
Nick Laham, Getty Images
No. 5 - Steven Jackson, Rams
A training camp holdout isn't enough to keep Jackson from our top five. With the offensive line healthy again and Al Saunders in charge, Action Jackson should bring the same flash he exhibited over his final eight games last season (933 total yards and five scores).
Dilip Vishwanat, Getty Images
Other Mistakes
Holding onto the past with running backs
Edgerrin James and Willie Parker used to be top-10 overall selections; quality first-rounders in any format. Those days are gone -- and in Edge's case, long gone. You have no business taking them over Thomas Jones, Earnest Graham, or Selvin Young for varying reasons. Yet there they are, getting picked immediately before Jones and about four RBs before Young on ADP charts.
Taking Tony Romo over Drew Brees
You can post all the comments you wish, now, Cowboys fans ... but after the season when the dust has settled and Brees has better numbers, will you be back to admit defeat?
Drafting a kicker before the last round
Too much unpredictability teamed with not much difference between the tenth-highest scoring kicker and the 20th. There is no reason to draft a kicker before the last round, no matter the league size.
Falling in love with Frank Gore because of Mike Martz's presence
You can like Gore -- and I do -- to have a solid season, but if your reasoning is simply because of Mike Martz you need not look any further than the numbers of the Lions backfield the past two seasons. Don't let your mind run wild about how much better Martz is going to make Gore. Check yourself by asking where you'd list him without Martz and you'll have Gore slotted just right.
Specific questions or complaints? Feel free to hit us up in the Fantasy FanHouse inbox ...
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
8-22-2008 @ 9:00AM
sloelover7 said...
There is 1 guy who should not be overlooked...thats the Titans 1st round draft pick Chris Johnson from East Carolina Univ..his last game as a senior @ the Hawaii Bowl...where his team upset the Colt Brennan and Boise State...he had 408 all purpose yrds....In his 1st game as a Titan he ran 66 yrds up the middle for a TD...last week he was also the titans leading rusher with 49 yrs on 8 carries with limited playing time and oh by the way he runs a 4.2 forty...a total package he runs the ball well..excellent reciever out of the backfield or in the slot position and also runback kicks....more 2 be seen in the future
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8-22-2008 @ 12:19PM
Roy Williams said...
While Drew Brees is a better QB, Tony Romo will have better numbers. He is on the better team, with a better offense that produces more not only as an offense but as a team. Don't get me wrong, I love Brees, but Romo is on a better offense with more weapons than just one WR (All the Saints really have is Colston. They have an injury prone Shockey, and an overhyped draft bust in Reggie Bush.)
Yes, I did see the Saints from 2 years back. Whoopdy Shit. THAT WAS 2 YEARS AGO. Did you watch the Cowboys from last year? Best team in the NFC in the regular season (since we are talking about REGULAR SEASON stats).Cowboys are the favorite to make it to the SB, because there is nobody really left to contend with them except the Gians and maybe the Saints but with their defense I don't think they are getting anywhere.
8-22-2008 @ 12:34PM
Robert Payne iv said...
hes very talented
8-22-2008 @ 9:09AM
Michael Walker said...
So Drew Brees will have better numbers than Tony Romo.....just what could you be basing that on? Your saying Marques Colston will catch more passes than T.O.? That Shockey will catch more passes than Witten? Shockey can't stay healthy long enough for that to happenm. That whoever the Saints 2nd receiver is will catch more passes than Patrick Crayton? That the Saints defense is better than Dallas' and will therefore give the Saints offense more opportunities?
Where do you live? Is it anywhere near the Lower Hudson Valley NY? Because I'm thinking I'll need to install a security system, cause you're gonna need to burglarize to support that substance abuse habit.
P.S. I'll be glad to admit that I'm wrong.....IF that's what happens, but you're just another fantasy WOG that doesn't know crap from crappie
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8-22-2008 @ 10:10AM
matt said...
Ummm Helloooooo, he said nothing about Colston having more catches than Owens (although he could) or Shockey more catches than Witten. He said Bress will have better numbers than Romo. I see you pick the individual players that may may have a better chance at getting more catches fo rthe Boys, but you conveiniently ignore that Reggie Bush will have a TON more cathces AND yards than ALL Cowboys RB combined. Inside the 10 the Cowbiys have Barber, they will run in the majority of their TD, Saitns have a small Reggie Bush and a returning from injury Duece, so they will Pass the majority of these TD.
I take Brees every time over Romo
8-22-2008 @ 11:56AM
Dave said...
Did you watch the Saints 2 years ago? To answer your rhetorical questions...Will Colston have more TD's than TO? YES. Will Shockey catch more than Whitten? YES. So its yes and yes. Whats your next response? Brees will be in more shoot outs. Brees is more proven than Romo. Dallas is not a stable place. Cowboy fan...how long has it been?
8-22-2008 @ 9:29AM
Ken said...
As someone living in Detroit he has the Frank Gore thing correct. Marts may even make him a lesser RB because he loves to pass way to much. Someone else can have gore.
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8-22-2008 @ 9:42AM
Whodey85 said...
East Carolina has never stepped on the same field as Colt Brennan......he played for Hawaii not Boise State
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8-22-2008 @ 9:43AM
Garrick said...
Michael... hop off the Cowboys band wagon. Colston can put up T.O. numbers and Patrick Crayton????? That guy is a chump.
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8-22-2008 @ 10:15AM
JLucik said...
Taking Romo, Maroney, Jacobs and Andre Johnson over Larry Johnson does not make good sense. Running back is much more valuable then taking a qb. If you miss out on a runningback in your 1st 2 rounds then you might as well pack it in there will be nothing but scraps left. Maroney is in a pass happy offense and will lose carries to faulk, Lamont Jordan and Morris. Jacobs is in a 3-headed monster in New York and never catches the ball so if you are in a ppr league you are wasting a pick. Andre Johnson well has he played a full season during the Bush administration? Kansas City did spend a 1st rounder on a stud offensive lineman Larry will get 1200 yds rushing, 40-50 receptions, and 10 touchdowns which i would take all day long on my fantasy team. Hopefully they are not paying you too much for your opinions because I would love to have you in my fantasy league!
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8-22-2008 @ 10:43AM
sean said...
u have got to be kiding me. why wouldn't i pick larry johnson? he is goin to beast up the NFL and he is way better than a lot of other people. idc wht u say
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8-22-2008 @ 1:39PM
jytejtejhtejheujhr said...
hahahaha thats funny
8-22-2008 @ 10:52AM
bordizzle said...
KC has NO QB! what does this mean? larry johnson is going to see 8 man fronts ALL YEAR LONG! in addition, KC's O line is FUBAR... johnson may be lucky to get 700 yards and 5 TD's all season... he'll likely be injured and miss a few games simply because he's going to get pounded week in and week out on every single play... (for the record, i passed on him last year, too)...
BTW, brees has more completions than ANY other QB last year - INCLUDING romo (33%) and brady (10% more)... will all the weapons at his disposal, he may well outproduce romo...
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8-22-2008 @ 11:10AM
Jason said...
Lets end the debate right now. There is maybe a 10-15 point difference between Breese and Romo at the end of this year in fantasy points. That is maybe at best 1 point a game. Fellas, that is nothing. They are basically the same. What people need to concentrate on is getting the best players possible in the first 4 rounds. After that: be careful of bye weeks, only take a top TE before round 8, and never draft a kicker before the last round. But the most important thing to remember is that there are always 4-6 RB's that come out of nowhere. Therefore it is not so important to concentrate on RB's in the first 2 rounds. Get the best players available.
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8-22-2008 @ 11:25AM
john said...
i am willing to bet that larry johnson is a fantasy stud again this year.....people are not giving him enough credit for the type of talent he is.....he is not the only running back in football that plays on a team with a horrible offense.....ex....frank gore....marshawn lynch......ronnie brown......darren mcfadden....so i dont see why larry is the only one people are criticising.
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8-22-2008 @ 11:45AM
Mike said...
Solid article. I agree with him on just about everything here. There are a lot of guys who are going to be drafted WAY too early. LJ and Gore are the main culprits.
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8-22-2008 @ 11:47AM
pat_hall12 said...
LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING I THINK THAT ROMO AND T O IS THE BEST THING THAT HAS HAPPEN FOR DALLAS IN A LONG TIME. AND DALLAS IS COMING BACK . BEEN A DALLAS FAN FOR MANY YEARS AND ALWAYS WILL BE.
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8-22-2008 @ 11:48AM
todd said...
MORON... I bet LJ gets 1500 yards and 15-20 td's. He healthy nad is looking like 2005 form agian..and he's PISSED. LJ pissed equals GREAT FANTASY NUMBERS...
He was hurt last year and KC didnt even use a fullback..this year under the Chan Gailey offense they will be running with a full back and multiple 2 tight end sets. The offesive line is better with a 1 st round pick and their pro bowl gurd playing better than ever. KC isnt going t rely on Brodie Croyle to pass..they will rely on LJ to RUN RUN RUN... My prediction is LJ wins the rushing title this year.
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8-22-2008 @ 11:51AM
Bryan said...
WOW.. I disagree LJ is healthy and looking better than ever. LAst year if he didnt BREAK HIS FOOT.. he would ahve had 11 TD and 1300 yards..and this with the worst OLINE in the NFL and no full back. What is he goignt o do this year with a better OLINE, FULLBACK, and now KC runs 2 tight end sets under the new offense.. I say 1600 yards..18TD's.
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8-22-2008 @ 11:53AM
ken said...
if you want to build a strong, long lasting team and can wait a season to win the ffl superbowl, look at the rookies. this of course applys to keeper leagues.
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