Prepare The Eulogy: The Back-to-Back Running Back Strategy Is Dead.

It's a tried-and-true philosophy, one that has guided more fantasy football drafts than perhaps all other strategies combined: Take running backs with your first two picks.

A solid running back is the secret sauce to fantasy football – it's truly hard to win with problems at that position, while you can go a bit more low rent with the rest of your team. While there have always been teams that will grab an elite QB or WR in those first two rounds, it's the strategy where it's hardest to go wrong. (Unless you grab guys like Anthony Thomas or Reuben Droughns, two guys who went in the top two rounds in drafts of years past to the chagrin of their owners.)

Well, like many of the theories you heard about growing up, it turns out to not be true. At least not for this season.

In fact, it's a fair bet that close to half the teams in most leagues won't take their second running back until the third round – or later.Here's what's happening: On

one hand, you have a deeper top set of wide receivers than you have in a long time. Not only is the top level (Randy Moss and about six other guys) pretty deep, the next level of guys is even deeper.

On the other hand, the exact opposite is true with running back. While the top tier is five deep, the next one is as well – if you include Larry Johnson, you have Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber and Ryan Grant as comfortable options at running back.

The next tier is not only pretty unsettled, but the possible names in that tier just aren't good options that early in the draft. Do you want to gamble on Maurice Jones-Drew, or take Terrell Owens as a lockdown #1 WR? Maybe you think Jamal Lewis will stay healthy – but is he really going to help your team as much as Braylon Edwards, or Peyton Manning? These running backs aren't just in a tier below guys like Lynch and Portis, the drop-off is considerable.

On the other hand, waiting to see if you can get one of those same guys in the third round in addition to a top WR or QB is a gamble worth taking. And if you miss out on those guys, there are actually quite a few good options even later, like Earnest Graham, Thomas Jones, even rookies like Matt Forte.

There are a few RB/RB combinations that are superior to these options, and most of them should be available to teams drafting in the lower half of the first round, like picks 8-10. Pairing Portis and Barber is a pretty tempting scenario. But for those drafting earlier, those prime second running backs will be long gone.

If you are in that top set of picks, you need to evaluate your options and see how happy you'd be with the way your team sets up by going RB/WR/RB, or even RB/WR/QB in your first three picks. It's quite possible you'll be happier going that route than a more traditional path.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

8-24-2008 @ 5:55AM

Keith said...

I did this with my first draft this year and I think it worked well. I picked 9th in a 10 team league. I took Barber and then grabbed Wayne (Gore was just taken ahead, otherwise I might have been tempted by the old rb/rb). Next go around I grabbed Willie parker and TJ Housman........Then I got Carson palmer and Jason Whitten.

So overall, I loved the strategy and Wayne will prove to be more valuable than earnest graham or ryan grant in the end.

8-25-2008 @ 1:06PM

tomma said...

i had the number one pick . i took lt hands down and didnt pick until 24 and 25 ...so i took colston and ocho cinco also nabbed thomas jones marvin harrison fred taylor ricky williams later on .the two wr stategy worked wonderful. rwady to kick ass.

8-25-2008 @ 8:31PM

Bobby said...

I picked 10th in a 10 man league and didnt hesitate and took two wideouts in Moss and T.O. I had a notion at 1st to take possibly one of the big quarterbacks left between Romo, Manning, and Brees but think my roster came out as well as I could have hoped. I will be starting Garrard with Warner as a back up, two backs are Graham and Lewis with a back up in Willie Parker. I also end up with Witten. I think its pretty solid.

8-25-2008 @ 11:22PM

dsbernie said...

Yeah, same here I was 7th out of 12 and passed on Stephen Jackson and took Moss and TO. I was worried about the strategy but got Larry Johnson and Willie Parker and Edgerin James and Chester Taylor.

I even picked up Calvin Johnson.

I think its a very solid team. I might use one of the receivers for a trade.

Roster below.

J. Kitna DET QB
M. Leinart ARI QB
L. Johnson KC RB
W. Parker PIT RB
E. James ARI RB
C. Taylor MIN RB
J. Norwood ATL RB
R. Moss NE WR
T. Owens DAL WR
Calvin Johnson DET WR
R. Curry OAK WR
D. Jackson PHI WR
H. Miller PIT TE
B. Utecht CIN TE
K. Brown HOU K
Bears TM

8-26-2008 @ 10:03PM

Richard Jude Woerner said...

I have now 10 teams at various web sites. I have read so many "do's and don'ts" to the point I am about to pick a DST in the first round. Just kidding. I tried the RB/RB combo, I ended up with Barber (DAL) and Parker (PIT). The the RB/WR combo, I ended up with Barber (DAL) and Wayne (IND). The the RB/QB combo. Ended up with Addai (IND) and Brady (NE). To me, each draft, no matter what strategy, will work, if you know how to pick, unless you stick to the Matt Milan theory on running a football team. I have also noticed that many folk fail to use their "gut". How many leagues overlooked DeSean Jackson or Steve Slaton? What about Dustin Keller, Favre likes his TE's, Bubba Franks did well with Favre. It comes down to whether the individual feels where they will gain the most points. The draft pool is really deep for a change at all positions, even kicker's and I hate kicker's, what a waste of a roster spot and a BYE week headache. Use a strategy that makes it fun and try to look beyond the experts and be the owner, which is what we are, so-to-speak. Oh and remember, it is not about W's and L's, it is about Fantasy Points.

8-27-2008 @ 11:20PM

greg ba;lsley said...

I was 10th of 12 teams in my fleaflicker league- went the RB/WR/QB route. I got Steven Jackson with the 10th pick(1.10 rd), the Larry Fitzgerald in the 15 pick(2.3 rd), then followed with Bret Favre with the 34pick(3.10 rd), then Torry Holt in the 4th; Calvin Johnson- 5th; Willie Parker- 6th; Cowboys- 7th; Ronnie Brown- 8th;