Profitable Returns for the Injured, Suspended, and Other Question Marks

Ever hear of the economic principle, the law of diminishing returns? Basically, if production of an item reaches a certain point, it's counter-productive to create more output because the profits will decrease for each additional unit. In fantasy football, there is an opposite affect on players with question marks heading into the season.
A perfect example is Steve Smith. I already own him on multiple teams. Why? He's suspended for two games. Because of this suspension, however, owners are letting him fall too far on draft boards. You just have to approach drafting Smith like he has three bye weeks instead of one. Plug those holes with a someone like Nate Burleson -- who will be Matt Hasselbeck's top receiving option in the early season -- in the next few rounds and you're covered.

Smith is going to put up monster stats with Jake Delhomme back and other receivers attracting coverage this season in his 13 games. The point of profitable returns for Steve Smith is about round five. He can't fall lower than that.


Some others:

Chad Johnson and Chris Henry, Bengals flamboyant receivers
Johnson's got a torn labrum in his shoulder. That's not good for a receiver that may need to extend his arms to catch a pass while taking a hit. This is one guy I'm probably going to avoid, but if you plant the seeds of doubt in the minds of your fellow league-mates by stressing the injury, rounds six or seven could yield great returns if he miraculously stays healthy all season.

As for Henry, his value takes an obvious spike if 'Ocho' goes down. The problem is that Henry is suspended for four weeks. That's a good enough chunk, with the possibility that this idiot gets in trouble again, to make him a serious risk on your team -- considering he's the Bengals third option through the air. Still, if you approach this thinking Johnson will be shut down before Week 5, you can gamble on 11 very productive games from a receiver with talent who has Carson Palmer throwing to him and TJ Houshmandzadeh taking eyes off him. Look for him in your last non-kicker round.

Willis McGahee, Ravens No. 1 running back
Sitting right on the lower-tier of number one fantasy running backs before the preseason, McGahee has distinguished himself by having his knee scoped. He swears up and down he's going to be ready for the season opener, but fantasy players are skeptical, as his stock is plummeting. Personally, I think he's falling too far. Even if he's not ready for Week 1 -- again, he says he will be -- you know he's going to play in Week 2. He shouldn't be falling to the third round, and in many cases he is. Just make sure to handcuff him with Ray Rice.

Brandon Marshall, Broncos suspended WR
Marshall appealed his suspension in order to get it reduced to only one game, so there's no longer a reason why he should be falling into round six of drafts. The rapport he developed with Jay Cutler late last season won't go away, as the two mature into NFL veterans together. In three of the last four games, Marshall went for over ten catches and 100 yards, and he hit paydirt five times in the Broncos' last seven games.

Giants D/ST, now without Osi Umenyiora and still-retired Michael Strahan
The Giants defense last year was quite intimidating to opposing offenses, and one number really sticks out when you view the statistics: 52 sacks. What Osi and Strahan personally had is irrelevant, because the pressure they provided often set up sacks for others or forced QBs into rash decisions and turnovers.

The bottom line is that losing these two changes the entire complexion of the defense for the defending champs, and they can't be counted on to produce starting D/ST points in fantasy. If you play in leagues where you draft two defensive teams, however, you could still do much worse. Grab them as the top backup and hope Mathias Kiwanuka and Justin Tuck provide career years.

Dwayne Bowe, studly WR with a sucky QB
Dwayne Bowe is an extremely talented football player. He racked up 995 yards on 70 catches as a rookie to go with five scores. The only problem is that Brodie Croyle is a horrifying QB, and the Chiefs seem intent on sticking with him. Not only was Croyle 0-6 as a starter -- which doesn't really matter when we're talking Bowe's fantasy stuff, I'm just throwing it in because it's embarrassing -- but he only threw for over 200 yards once. In that game, Bowe only accounted for 64 of them with no TDs. While Dwayne did manage a few quality games with Croyle at the helm -- though none were stellar -- he also turned in two awful days and three that were mediocre at best.

He has too much upside to last through the eighth round, but don't count on Bowe as more than your third WR.

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Derek Anderson, Browns concussed QB
Everyone is lining up to hate on Anderson now. He threw too many picks last year, including four in a late season loss to the Bengals which cost the Browns a playoff berth. He threw for less than 200 yards in three of the Browns' final four games. The starting offense sputtered in the preseason game against the Giants until Anderson suffered a concussion ... only to see Brady Quinn come in and start scoring points. People also like to say this situation is shaping up like Drew Brees being forced out of San Diego in favor of Philip Rivers.

And I say ... deep breaths everyone. Anderson is going to start the season as the Browns starting QB. There isn't cause for concern unless he gets injured in the regular season (especially if it's another head injury) or the offense royally sucks for multiple weeks early on. The latter scenario is doubtful because of the stout offensive line protecting him and the weapons at his disposal. He's easily a top-10 QB, and if he's falling farther than that, please draft him and stop the insanity.

To reiterate, there is still substantial risk involved for all of these guys. The true fantasy skill here lies in being able to surround whichever above player you wish to draft with quality depth at their respective position. If that happens, like with my Steve Smith example (covering him with Nate Burleson), you have taken a risk that will yield positive rewards.

On the other hand, playing fantasy football on Fleaflicker is definitely risk-free.