Fantasy Coin Flips: Helping You Make Those Tough Draft Day Decisions

WHO YA GOT???
While it's easy to sit back before the draft and know who you want, it's a helluva lot harder to make those calls when the pressure of the clock counting down is squared all up on your shoulders. (Although in fairness, if you're playing in the most perfect and free fantasy football league of all time, then it's a lot easier to deal with those decisions.)

So that's why Fantasy FanHouse (with the help of Mock Draft Central's ADP report) is here to help you through the tough picks, with a little thing I like to call: Fantasy Coin Flips.

Early Round QB: Peyton Manning vs. Tony Romo
If you follow what we write here at FanHouse, you know that I am an unabashed basher of Romo. Not because he won't help lead the Cowboys this year, but just because he's overrated in fantasy. (No, seriously, Cowboys fans, re-read that before you comment. Please.) Peyton carries the injury risk, yes. And Romo has weapons, sure. But unlike most years, Peyton's going to be fighting for the playoffs while Romo is going to be taking it easy in December with the NFC East on cruise control. Plus, the value in Peyton Freaking Manning at this point is too good to pass up.


Early Round RB: Marshawn Lynch vs. Larry Johnson
Not even close, folks. LJ's the "name" but Marshawn is the play, even though their ADP looks nearly identical. LJ lacks an offensive line and Trent Edwards >> Brodie Croyle. Also, LJ is like the Kerry Wood of fantasy football. Just stay away. Please. I'm begging you.

Early Round WR: Marques Colston vs. Andre Johnson
You can't really lose with either guy here. I think Drew Brees will be big (and thusly Colston) ... but so will Johnson. He was looking like the top wideout in all of fantasy before he got injured. Then he came back and Matt Schaub got hurt. The difference is that with Colston you'll get a top 10 wideout and with Johnson you have the upside shot at the number one wideout in fantasy.

Mid-Round QB: Jay Cutler vs. Eli Manning
Logic would usually say, "Take the Manning." But only if we're talking about Peyton. People saw Eli's postseason last year and will be overvaluing him this season, whereas Denver's struggles have Cutler and his cannon-arm underrated. The Giants, folks, are going to struggle mightily this season, but no one's admitted it yet. The Broncos might not win a ton of games, but Cutler could be in line for a mini-breakout, especially with Brandon Marshall only out for one game now. Don't get suckered by the Super Bowl.

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Mid-Round RB: Thomas Jones vs. Edgerrin James
People hate TJ this year, because of what he did to fantasy owners last season. Rightfully so, but that doesn't mean you should ignore the changes the Jets made this offseason. Allen Faneca and Damien Woody will make D'Brickashaw Ferguson (greatest name ever) look oustanding this season and if you overlook Tony Richardson's addition at fullback, you're not thinking right -- he's been blocking for LJ and AP over the past few years and they've been "decent" with him on the team. And Edge is old. So there's that.

Mid-Round WR: Calvin Johnson vs. Santonio Holmes
Yet again, a pick where you can't lose -- landing one of these guys as a WR3 is going to give you a stacked wide receiver corps, considering both will end as WR2 worthy at least. And while Holmes had a breakout year and will be a stud, Johnson is an absolute beast that dealt with injury all last season while still posting decent totals. Hee-yuge year for him.

Late Round QB: Philip Rivers v. David Garrard
Garrard seems like the pretty easy answer based simply on last year's numbers, no? How quickly we forget that Phil Rivers was a top 10 QB two years ago. Even more quickly do we forget that Garrard is throwing to no one. It basically boils down to the guaranteed regression for Garrard -- even the most heartfelt ECU apologist wouldn't predict less than five picks again -- and a guaranteed progression for Phil. Rivers will outscore Garrard substantially this year. I guarantee it.

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Late Round RB: Chris Johnson vs. Felix Jones
A fantastic comparison, because both are first round rookies and both are absolute speed demons. The difference is that one of them has Marion Barber in front of him, while the other has LenDale White clotting up the depth chart. I think it's pretty obvious that White is more likely to lose his starting gig, right? That makes Johnson, an underrated guy out of C-USA, the pick here, simply because he could end up starting. And even if he doesn't, he'll get more touches on a week by week basis, and with speed demons, touches = fantasy points.

Late Round WR: Devin Hester vs. DeSean Jackson
The only rational way you pick Hester is if you're getting points every time he scores on a return TD and you start him as a WR. And even then, if you're not getting yards, Jackson's still a better choice. Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are banged up as hell and Jackson is a fluid, fast and upside-riddled wideout that would have been nice to pick up before Donovan McNabb started heading down the hill. Still, he could be in for a pretty large year. Hester's quarterback is Kyle Orton. Super-hot? Yes. Good at football? No.

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