In searching for undervalued wide receivers, a key stat to note is the number of times a particular player is targeted. While obviously the number of targets correlates pretty closely to the number of receptions, a better way to uncover value is by including the number of receptions in the equation. In other words, look at the catch to target ratio (catches divided by targets). By analyzing this stat, it gives a better sense of the efficiency of a particular quarterback to wide receiver connection. In doing so, you can undercover some gems in two different ways. The first is obvious; by looking at those players who convert the highest percentage of their targets into receptions. A high catch to target ratio should imply consistency from any of these picks. In looking at the top 50 wide receivers in 2007, the range of percentages of catches per target ranged from 42.7% to 77.2%. Amongst the top ten, two were tight ends (Owen Daniels and Jason Witten) and two were running backs (Reggie Bush and Brian Westbrook). Obviously, those positions have higher efficiency numbers based on these receptions being quick strikes and screen passes. Of the remaining six, Wes Welker (77.2%), Anquan Boldin (71.2%), Bobby Engram (70.1%), Marques Colston (68.5%), Donald Driver (67.2%), Reggie Wayne (66.7%), and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (66.3%) posted the strongest numbers. While Donald Driver will be playing with a new quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and Bobby Engram is banged up, the other four wide receivers should be up on your radar in their respective ADP ranges.
The second way to dig up valuable information is a little more risky, but provides more upside. This involves looking at the worst of the bunch and trying to pick out guys with a lot of targets and low catch to target ratio. The key is to identify players with poor efficiency, but improved situations where they could likely post better numbers.
The bottom ten catch to target ratios on the list consist of Jerry Porter (42.7%), Darrell Jackson (44.2%), Marty Booker (47.6%), Arnaz Battle (48.1%), Lee Evans (48.7%), Plaxico Burress (49.6%), Calvin Johnson (50.5%), Chris Chambers, (51.1%), Braylon Edwards (52.3%) and Nate Burleson (52.6%).
Among this list of underachievers, several jump out as good values for 2008. For starters, Mr. Inconsistency himself, Lee Evans, is expected to get increased looks over the middle for shorter completions as opposed to being primarily a deep threat. This could be the catalyst for Evans finally coming through as a fantasy stud. Also, although the fact that J.T. Sullivan will be throwing to him doesn't exactly instill confidence, Arnaz Battle should benefit from the Martz offensive game plan. He'll be around in the very late rounds, so not a bad gamble. Calvin Johnson looks like he should skyrocket after admitting he was less playing at less 75% last season due to his back injury and taking pain killers to play. Darrell Jackson looks like a promising bust out candidate, as he'll get a chance to start in week 1 in Denver and he gets upgrade from Alex Smith to Jay Cutler. Finally, Chris Chambers should play with the same quarterback for an entire season (unlike Miami where he cycled through 12) and develop a connection. After years as a fantasy disappointment, he could be poised for a break out season.
