Turner the Burner: Accept Him Yet?

Part of being a fantasy analyst is accepting the fact that you are going be wrong. When you discuss and rank hundreds of players every week without the luxury of telepathy, it's impossible to be right about every single player.

For me, the biggest thorn in my side -- thanks now to Larry Johnson for showing everyone how much he sucks last week, by the way -- has been Michael Turner.

I don't know why I can't accept him, really. 'The Burner' is one of those guys we should all love. Went to a small college, dabbled in obscurity behind the best running back in the league for a few years, and finally struck the big contract in the offseason.

Instead, I've continually ranked him too low and tried to give you reality checks about him after his weaker opponents let him run wild. Yet he currently leads the league in rushing and fantasy points for RBs in standard scoring formats.

I have become sold on him as a fantasy starter, but I'm still not sold on him as a RB1 and I most certainly don't think he'll end up the top-scoring RB this season. He won't even end up in the top five.

Here's why:

Examine performance vs. strength of opponent, and there is a trend jumping out of the screen at you.

Week 1 stats: 220 yards, two TDs
Week 1 opponent: Detroit Lions, who currently rank 30th in rushing defense. Frank Gore and Matt Forte also went nuts against them.

Week 2 stats: 42 measly yards rushing on 14 carries.
Week 2 opponent: Tampa Bay Bucs, who sit a mediocre 14th in rush defense. Reggie Bush and Matt Forte had big fantasy games against them, but that was mostly due to pass-catching abilities.

Week 3 stats: 104 yards on 23 carries with three touchdowns.
Week 3 opponent: The dreaded Kansas City Chiefs ... who currently sit 31st in rush defense. Sammy Morris played well against them. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush embarrassed them, and DeAngelo Williams looked like Jim Brown against them last week.

Week 4 stats: 56 yards on 18 carries.
Week 4 opponent: Carolina Panthers, who sit 13th in run defense. In fairness, the Panthers abused L.J. last week, and have held LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte relatively in check. All three posted good, but not great, games.

Week 5 stats: 121 yards on 26 carries and a score.
Week 5 opponent: The Green Bay Packers, who are 27th in run defense. Earnest Graham had just as good a game against the Pack as Turner did. Felix Jones and Marion Barber schooled them. Even Silent Bob Kevin Smith averaged four yards a carry.

So we can conclude that Turner is a great option, as long as he's facing a terrible run defense. He's had two good games, one phenomenal game and two "ugh" games. The two sub-par games were against middle-of-the-road run defenses, and the three solid ones were against awful run defenses.

Let's check the rest of the schedule, with their run defense rank in parentheses:

Week 6: Bears (4th)
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: @ Philly (8th)
Week 9: @ Raiders (17th)
Week 10: Saints (16th)
Week 11: Broncos (25th)
Week 12: Panthers (13th)
Week 13: @ Chargers (18th)
Week 14: @ Saints (16th)
Week 15: Bucs (14th)
Week 16: @ Vikes (3rd)
Week 17: Rams (28th)

If your championship is in Week 16 -- as it is in most leagues -- good luck heading into it with your RB2 facing the Vikes. Ouch.

Realistically, Turner's going to be fine ... as a lower-tier RB2. If you want to sell him high, now is a good time with the next two opponents likely to lock him up and a bye week included in there. You could even try to trade back for him after Week 8 if you really love him. He's had trouble with the two run defenses ranked in the teens thus far, though, and eaten the sucky ones for breakfast. He only has two more matchups the rest of the way that are in with the Packers, Lions and Chiefs in terms of being shredded on the ground. The Saints, for example, just showed drastic improvement in totally locking down Adrian Peterson. Turner sees them twice. Running in San Diego in Week 13 won't be easy as if he had them in Week 2.

Another factor I alluded to above is that backs like Forte and Bush can garner points via receiving if they face a tough run defense. Turner only has three catches for 11 yards this year.

I simply don't like how things stack up.

Once again, I'm telling you to sell. Do it before my Bears show him how the Monsters of the Midway roll this week. Thank me later.