The Denver Broncos offense stormed out of the gate this season, leading all of us to believe that Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall was going to be the nouveau Young to Rice or Manning to Harrison. Even if it was a poor-man's type deal, you have to admit, that Week 2 showing in which Marshall torched the Chargers secondary for 166 yards and a touchdown on 18 grabs was amazing. Others were getting in on the action as well, as the Broncos racked up an absurd 1257 passing yards in their first four games ... piling up 133 points and 100 first downs in the process. I mean, this was a veritable machine. A big problem -- which we should have foreseen as a potential issue -- was that there wasn't a balance. The Broncos were running for only 28 percent of their total yardage, and there was never a true feature back being utilized by Mike Shanahan.
In the four games since then, the turnovers have piled up, points have drastically gone down, and the passing game isn't as prolific as it was. Compare the numbers above to 69 first downs, 57 points, and 893 passing yards. It's safe to say their collective fantasy value has been decimated.
Can we expect a change, or have the wheels come completely off the former machine?
First of all, we need to examine their opponents. In the first four games, when the pass offense was thriving, the opponents are pathetic 2008 defenses. At the time the Week 2 battle against the Chargers took place, we didn't know this was the case yet, so maybe our expectations were off-base. The Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs, and Saints all rank 26th or lower in total defense. The next four opponents aren't exactly stellar defenses, either, they just don't suck. Sure, the Bucs are currently ranked as the sixth defense in the NFL, but the Patriots (14th), Dolphins (22nd), and Jags (23rd) are hardly the '85 Bears.
It seems as though the Broncos were showing us some too good to be true numbers through four weeks. Moving forward, though, the schedule isn't even remotely difficult upon which to put up some points (other than a Dec. 14 contest in Carolina). They'll even see three of the opponents they torched again.
We can't truly be sure things will get turned around until the Broncos show any kind of ability to run the football. Thursday night in Cleveland will be a nice time to try this, because the Browns rank 28th in the league against the run. Shanahan must unleash Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, or both in an attempt to soften up the coverage on Marshall and Eddie Royal in the secondary.
If this happens, they'll be back.
I'm willing to gamble on it ... because the talent on this side of the ball is indisputable.
VERDICT:
Buy 'em low: Cutler, Marshall, Royal ... buy them now, before the Thursday night game in Cleveland where they bounce back.
I also like Tony Scheffler and Ryan Torain to be quality fantasy options in the second half of the season, but those are more risky (Scheffler because he's banged up, and Torain because he's completely unproven and we know what Shanahan does to us fantasy owners with his running back situation).
