Sleepers and busts are played out phrases in the fantasy lexicon. They get routinely abused each year, but they're still important. Why? Well, in the case of the latter, you simply don't want to draft players who will stink. "Stink," of course, is relative. You'll see why in the following list of hitters you need to stay away from in 2009.
Matt Holliday, OF, A's -- You would think this is an obvious pick, given that Holliday is moving from the hitters' haven that is Coors Field (third-most hitter friendly field last year) to Oakland's McAfee Coliseum (14th). Not to mention that Holliday has always been a worse hitter on the road, even if those numbers were less distinguished last year.
The greater point is that Holliday's current average draft position is an absolutely astounding 14. Yes, that's right; he's dropped from fifth last year all the way down to the beginning of the second round. And while that's certainly a substantial drop -- people obviously recognize the change in scenarios -- it's not devaluing Holliday enough for what is clearly a "past his prime" situation. Steer clear, Big Tuna.
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves -- I'm about as big a fan of Larry as they come. After all, he's been a Brave almost as long as I've been a functionally cognizant baseball fan. Last year, he was drafted around 66th overall and it panned out to extraordinary value as he completely exceeded projections, flirting with .400 for half the year. As a result of an MVP-caliber season, we're now seeing Jones drafted around the 50th overall pick.
That, folks, is called overpaying. His skills are still intact (his post-break "slump" included a .951 OPS) but his health is a question and at that point in the draft, you're nearly paying for an elite cornerman, something Jones won't likely be in 2009.
Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs -- There's a chance Snyder would actually be angry if I didn't include Lee on this list. While his ADP (74) has nearly doubled in "size," he's still not a good value there. Lee will be 34 when the 2009 season closes, and thinking that he's not over the hill might cost you an unproductive, sub-20-homer first baseman.
It shouldn't be a secret either, though; his name value is still relatively high based almost solely on a monster 2005 season, but when you consider he hit less taters in 2007 and 2008 than that year combined, it becomes pretty apparent that he's slipping. Tack on drop-offs in average and OPS (despite a stout bump in batting average for balls in play), a power plummet in the second half (five homers after the break) and 22 steals total over the past three years, and there shouldn't be any question as to why you don't want him on your squad.
Russell Martin, C, Dodgers -- Martin is more or less the consensus No. 2 catcher in almost every fantasy league. He will cost you a 43rd (approximately) pick. For whatever absolutely ludicrous reason, he's being drafted ahead of Brian McCann and only 10 spots in front of Joe Mauer (who you don't want either, really). Geovany Soto is 20 spots after the Dodgers backstop.
Why? You got me. Fueled by a second consecutive season of 540+ innings logged, Martin absolutely melted down in the second half last year: he hit just five home runs, his average and OPS swooned 54 and 140 points, [kind of] respectively. There's no telling if he actually gets along with Dodger management, and if Joe Torre continues to overwork him, the downside is perilous. Sounds like a nice way to spend your fourth-round draft pick, huh?
Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox -- Let me emphasize (again) just how relative the term "bust" is. It does not mean that Quentin is going to be horrible this year. Quite the contrary, I think he'll be quite good. But there are several issues that concern me with Quentin to the point that I wouldn't dream of pulling the trigger on him in the third round.
First of all, he is recovering from a serious wrist injury. Wrists are fairly important for power hitters, and ballplayers recovering from those kind of injuries tend to see a drop-off in power. Secondly, when he really got rolling, early in the second half of the season, Quentin was hitting 26 percent of his fly balls out of the park. That's a lot. Not Ryan Howard-level "a lot", but it was a higher rate than Albert Pujols. Don't get me wrong, though; at that spot I'd rather gamble on Quentin than Vladimir Guerrero. But if McCann (scarcity + power), Curtis Granderson or David Ortiz are sitting there (and they probably will be), I'm taking the safer option and steering clear of Quentin and his wrist injury.
