There's always a fine line between unearthing a late-round sleeper and reaching on a hot name too soon, leaving proven talent left on the board. It happens every year, and in some cases can lead to an early stumble out of the gate. In other cases, however, taking a chance on a player with promise late in the draft might just improve your shot at winning your league. Just ask the guys who passed on Samuel Dalembert and Tyson Chandler and opted for Brook Lopez and Nene Hilario instead. This is especially true when it comes to drafting centers, one of the thinner positions and one in which you are required to start two in most leagues. Based on the current average draft position (ADP), per Mock Draft Central (MDC) and Yahoo! (Y!), I will give you a list of five potential sleepers, or value picks.
5. Chris Wilcox (MDC: N/A, Y!: 136.8) -- This one seems far too easy. Right now in Detroit, the Pistons are banking on Kwame Brown to provide quality minutes in the paint. Good luck with that. Brown hasn't played a 60-game season since 2005-06. He also hasn't provided value since 2003-04, and even then he was just a nice utility option. Wilcox is a better, more efficient low-post scorer and just as good of a rebounder as Brown is. Neither plays defense all that well, so we need not compare their deficiencies. The essence of finding a sleeper is finding value late in the draft. I would say that a guy going undrafted and looking increasingly like he'll pick up "starter minutes" is exactly the kind of value I'm looking for.
4. Drew Gooden (MDC: N/A, Y!: 140.7) -- Gooden inked a best-case scenario one-year deal this summer with the Mavericks. He's now in a situation where he's a better fit for his current team than the guy who is supposed to start, Erick Dampier. It's only a matter of time before Gooden steals the job from Damps. Gooden is simply a better fit, especially on offense. He'll provide points, rebounds, decent percentages and low turnovers, but remember that his defense is mediocre.
3. Kevin Love (MDC: 87.31, Y!: 86.5) -- The secret is already out on Kevin Love. I'm not breaking any ground here by throwing his name out as a guy to watch. He's made my list, however, because he's getting drafted about two-to-three rounds too late. He's been absolutely dominant in preseason play thus far (two games) -- 14.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.0 blocks, 0.5 three-pointers, 47.4 percent from the field, 90.9 percent from the line, and just 1.5 turnovers. Yes, it's just a couple of preseason games, but if Love can learn to take better shots -- 39 percent of his shots last season came via the jumper, with an eFG% of 34.7 percent per 82games.com -- he's an increased FG% away from turning into a Top 50 player. Defensively he needs to work on getting more active with his hands, but is half a steal difference and a lower FG% really worth dropping him 40 picks behind David Lee?
2. Channing Frye (MDC: N/A, Y!: 140.7) -- With Robin Lopez scheduled to miss 6-8 weeks after suffering a broken left foot, Channing Frye instantly moves up the draft board thanks to an increase in playing time. No longer does he have to battle Lopez for minutes in the paint. This, however, doesn't mean that Frye will opt to play any defense, but beggars can't be choosers. Frye has instantly meshed with his new teammates on the offensive side of the ball, hitting threes and helping to spread the floor. What you're really looking at is Mehmet Okur value, but nearly 100 picks later. 1. Joakim Noah (MDC: 147.41, Y!: 109.2) -- I had Joakim Noah on the top of my list last season, but I think this is the year that he puts it all together. The thing I love about Noah is that he is an impact defender. In fact, he's the only defender on this list. In his first three preseason games he's blocked nine shots. He's also pulled down close to seven rebounds per game in just 22.3 minutes. Noah is slated to start at center for the Bulls, with Brad Miller coming off the bench. Miller is no longer the impact player he used to be. I can see Noah averaging 30-plus minutes per game, helping to bolster your rebounds, FG%, blocks, and even steals. He's a great value pick in the late rounds and will prove to be a valuable asset from a thin position.
