As draft day nears it's important to know where to find the best value. Once you've built your foundation early on in the draft, your next step is to fill in categories and find players who complement your core guys. If your team is built around bigs with high field-goal percentages, rebound rates and shot-blocking abilities, you might want to exploit that by adding another value big man later in the draft. In head-to-head leagues your goal is to win each week, whether it be 5-3 or 6-3 or 8-0. Just win. At the same right you don't want to leave the draft without depth at any position. Today I'm going to give you five late-round value sleepers at the power forward position who should outperform their average draft position. I used Mock Draft Central (MDC) and Yahoo! Sports (Y!) as a reference point.
5. Tyrus Thomas (MDC: 131.66, Y!: 89.0) -- Whichever way you look at it -- pick 89 or pick 131 -- Tyrus Thomas is an excellent value pick. Just look at his '08-09 post-All-Star break numbers: 12.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 1.2 steals, 78.2 free-throw percentage and a 46.5 field-goal percentage. Thomas' value is most certainly in his defense. His career 'Per 36' averages are 2.4 blocks and 1.5 steals. In fact, his 'Per 36' numbers across the board are almost identical to Josh Smith's, a guy who is getting drafted in the third round. It seems that Thomas is falling, especially in MDC drafts because of his mild concussion and minor hip injury. Neither injury is serious. With his defensive abilities Thomas shouldn't be falling past the seventh round.
3. Paul Millsap (MDC: 78.13 , Y!: 77.8) -- Millsap had his breakout season last year, but he's falling in drafts since Carlos Boozer decided not to opt out of his contract this summer. I can tell you this, though, the Jazz did not match the Trail Blazers' offer to Millsap in order to sit him on the bench or to bring him in for a mere 20 minutes per game. Whether Boozer gets moved or not, Millsap will still see 28-plus minutes per game. If Boozer does get moved, injures himself or feigns an injury, Millsap will see his minutes return to the 35-37 range. Remember, as a starter Millsap was averaging 16.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks and a 54.5 field-goal percentage in 38 games. At one point he even posted 16 straight double-doubles. I might be doubling down here suggesting that Boozer is going to either get moved early or injured often, but regardless Millsap is great value and a late sleeper for what he can return.
2. Brandon Bass (MDC: 159.68, Y!: N/A) -- One thing that can make any fantasy owner salivate is a power forward who shoots 50 percent from the floor and 87 percent from the free-throw line. That's exactly what Brandon Bass did in limited time last season with the Dallas Mavericks. Now in Orlando, Bass will step in and play a significant role early on with Rashard Lewis suspended for the first 10 games. Bass has a nice mid-range game that will be helpful in keeping the paint clear for the big fella, Dwight Howard. The worst you can do is use a 13th- or 14th-round draft pick on Bass and see what he does during the first 10 games of the season. At the very least you know he won't kill your percentages or turnovers -- no harm, no foul. 1. Carl Landry (MDC: 192.29, Y!: N/A) -- Here's another guy who too can boost your percentages. Landry last season shot 57.4 percent from the floor and 81.4 percent from the free-throw line. This season with the Rockets beat up by injuries, the team is left with few viable offensive options. Landry, however, happens to be one of those. His touches are going to increase, so you can expect to see his scoring head north. With the increased touches you'll probably see his efficiency go down, yet still likely remain around 55-56 percent. He complements Luis Scola in the low-post, where they can play a little dish and kick. Landry is fantastic value for a guy going undrafted in 12-team standard leagues.
