Draft Analysis: Sleeper Shooting Guards

The shooting guard position is where you load up on scorers with three-point shooting range and the defensive ability to pick up steals. Of the top 24 scorers in the league last season, 12 of them were eligible at the shooting guard position. Dwyane Wade was out in front, leading the league in scoring and finishing ranked third overall in standard scoring systems.

Many of the top shooting guards from last season were selected in the value rounds. Rookie O.J. Mayo, veteran Jason Terry, and youngsters like Wilson Chandler, J.R. Smith, John Salmons and Nate Robinson all returned Top 75 value in the 9th round or later. Then there's the case of Eric Gordon, who as a rookie went undrafted and yet finished the '08-09 season ranked 48th overall. Looking at the average draft positions (ADP) as reported by Mock Draft Central (MDC) and Yahoo! Sports (Y!), let's see if we can find any value/sleeper picks from the shooting guard position.

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5. James Harden (MDC: 114.52, Y!: N/A) -- Sure he's just a rookie, but Harden has an opportunity to step in right away and fill out some of those offensive categories. He'll have to battle it out with Thabo Sefolosha for playing time at the two-guard position, but simply because Sefolosha has defensive numbers to tout doesn't mean he's a better fit as a starter. Last season with Sefolosha in the starting lineup alongside Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic, that rotation posted a +/- of -101. Clearly not the defensive impact you'd expect. Harden too can defend a little, mainly picking up steals, but at this point it's more important for him to spread the floor and keep the defense honest. With Sefolosha the defense can cheat and double Durant, but with Harden they'll have to keep a hand on him at all times. He probably won't have the same impact as Eric Gordon did in Los Angeles last season, but he should still get a look on draft day as it looks likely that he'll earn the starting shooting guard gig.

4. Brandon Rush (MDC: N/A, Y!: N/A) -- As if the final two months of the '08-09 season weren't enough for Rush to join the ranks of the 2009-10 breakout candidates, maybe his current three-game preseason stint will do the trick -- 15.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 3.7 three-pointers, 1.7 blocks, 1.0 steals, and 81.8 percent from the free-throw line. Rush is the starting two-guard in Indiana and should remain so even if Mike Dunleavy miraculously finds his way back to the court. It's ill-advised, however, that you hold your breath.

3. Ronnie Brewer (MDC: 140.29, Y!: 123.5) -- The Jazz are now thinner than expected at the two swing positions. With just three healthy players at two positions, Brewer stands to get a bulk of the minutes at shooting guard. Brewer has improved his scoring in each year since joining the league. He also has become one of a handful of candidates capable of picking up two steals per game while shooting 50 percent from the floor. Playing alongside one of the league's top playmakers -- Deron Williams -- Brewer should continue to improve offensively, adding excellent value in the 12th or 13th round.

2. Courtney Lee (MDC: 133.32 ,Y!: 126.4) -- Lee was my pick as a New Jersey Net to watch. He began his ascension to fantasy relevancy during the playoffs last season with the Orlando Magic. Now in New Jersey he'll get an opportunity to get more touches and take more shots per game. He's a scoring guard with good three-point range and very good hands on the defensive end. He offers up contribution to typical two-guard categories, and with increased opportunities in New Jersey he'll outplay his draft position.

1. Anthony Morrow (MDC: N/A, Y!: N/A) -- I touched on Morrow as my Warrior to watch last week. Since then he went off and scored 30 points against the Suns, pulling down six rebounds and draining four threes. Doesn't it seem like Stephen Jackson has sealed his fate in Golden State? Either way, I'm sticking with Morrow.