The season is officially upon us. It tips off Tuesday night as the Cavaliers welcome the Celtics to town. This moment we've all been waiting for. Of course it seems as though you've got your fantasy teams in order. You came up with a more creative team name than "[Your Last Name]'s Team" and you're pretty sure you're the team to beat. But before you go and slack off, there's still work to be done. You need to embrace the math that is the weekly lineup.
It's not quite as easy as playing Player A over Player B just because you drafted him three rounds earlier than Player B. Sure it's safe to say that you're going to start guys like LeBron James each week, no questions asked. But for several players on your team it's crucial to look at the schedule and team matchups in order to gain the upper hand.
Each week it shall be my duty to break down the upcoming schedule and point out a few of the more favorable, and not-so-favorable, matchups. This could help make those start/sit decisions a little easier.
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Schedule Breakdown
Below are the teams listed by the number of games they play. You'll find the home/away games listed by '(home, away)'.
Four-game teams: Celtics (3,1), Cavaliers (2,2), Clippers (2,2), Trail Blazers (2,2).
Three-game teams: Hawks (2,1), Bobcats (1,2), Bulls (1,2), Mavericks (1,2), Nuggets (2,1), Pistons (1,2), Rockets (1,2), Lakers (3, 0), Grizzlies (2,1), Heat (2,1), Timberwolves (2,1), Nets (1,2), Hornets (1,2), Knicks (1,2), Thunder (2,1), Magic (1,2), 76ers (1,2), Suns (2,1), Kings (0,3), Spurs (2,1), Raptors (2,1), Wizards (1,2).
Two-game Teams: Warriors (1,1), Pacers, (1,1), Bucks (1,1), Jazz (1,1).
Favorable Schedules
We'll be able to follow team trends once the season gets under way, but for now here are some initial thoughts.
The Celtics, Cavaliers, Blazers and, yes, even the Clippers all boast favorable schedules playing four times this week. The Clips have a few rough ones thrown in there, including an opening night matchup against the Lakers. But, throw in a game against the Suns and you should see nice week-one numbers from Eric Gordon and company.
Portland with its four games (HOU, DEN, @HOU, @OKC) starts off the season favorably. With an already depleted Houston team without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, there is a possibility that Luis Scola might miss opening night as well. The Blazers bring two frontcourt bigs who measure 6-11 or taller, while the Rockets might be starting a front-line with three players all under 6-9: Carl Landry (6-7), Chuck Hayes (6-6), and Shane Battier (6-8). It's also nice that they get to close the week against the Rockets and Thunder. We should be able to get a nice early look at Greg Oden and see just how dominant he could be. Of the teams with three games on the schedule this week, the Suns might just have the best matchups. They face the Clippers, Golden State, and close the week with Minnesota. Early on we get a gift from the fantasy gods with the Suns-Warriors game. Anyone want to take the over/under at 270?
Dwyane Wade and company start the season with New York, which as we know means plenty of fantasy points. It's still not clear whether or not Michael Beasley will be in the lineup on opening night, but if he is you can be assured that he'll put up a nice stat line as the Heat hope to sail to an easy victory.
It's easy to get discouraged about the Warriors' two-game schedule, but with a home game against Houston and a road game at Phoenix, I can easily see them putting up 245-250 points between those two games. That might be more than what the Bobcats score in their three games this week.
Unfavorable Schedules
First you have to put the Pacers, Bucks and Jazz on this list since they play only two games all week. The Bucks face Philly on the road and are home against Detroit. I would advise against starting anyone not named Michael Redd or Andrew Bogut this week. If you have to decide between Bogut or Chris Kaman, however, you should start Kaman and his four-game schedule.
For the Pacers they are on the road against Atlanta and at home vs. Miami. As for who to start and sit -- Danny Granger and Troy Murphy start in all formats, the others I would look at based on team makeup. I like T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert, but in a two-game week you have to weigh your options. UPDATE: Granger is listed as "doubtful" for Wednesday's opener. I would consider sitting him, especially since the Pacers only play twice this week.
The Bobcats have a rough first week. They have road games with the Celtics and Cavaliers. Luckily, the schedule-makers decided to give them a gift with a home game vs. the Knicks. I'm not sure I'm starting Tyson Chandler this week, unless I absolutely have to. The Hornets get a similar schedule with road games against the Spurs and Celtics, with a home game against the Kings thrown in for good measure.
Toronto has to deal with the two top teams in the East. They start the season with Cleveland and end the week against Orlando. In between they have a road game against the new-look Grizzlies. I have a feeling that as dysfunctional as this Memphis team is going to be, it won't be a walk-in-the-park defensive matchup. I wouldn't suggest you sit Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani or Hedo Turkoglu, but those games with Cleveland and Orlando might be enough for me to bench DeMar DeRozan and Jarrett Jack this week in standard leagues.
