Fantasy Baltimore Ravens

Let me set the scene for you: It's late in the fourth quarter, and the Ravens have just scored to cut Carolina's lead to 16-14 on Kyle Boller's second touchdown pass of the game to Mark Clayton. Instead of attempting an onside kick, Ravens head coach Brian Billick has decided that the Ravens will kick deep in the hopes that his defense can force Carolina into a quick four and out.

After the ensuing kickoff is returned to the Carolina 28, the stadium is absolutely rocking in anticipation of a big play that will either pin the Panthers deep in their own end, or result in a turnover that will put the Ravens in position to attempt a game-winning field goal. And after living with a defense that's been dominating for its entire existence in Baltimore, that's the sort of result Ravens fans have come to hope for, and at times, even expect.

From my seats in the North end zone, I've got a clear shot of the play developing in front of me. But after Jake Delhomme avoids the Ravens rush, it's all too clear that super speedster Steve Smith has put plenty of space between him and cornerback Samari Rolle on a post pattern. A moment later, the ball is in Smith's hands, and he's headed for the pylon in the hopes he can reach it for a touchdown to put the game away.

And in that instant, I'm doing all the basic algebra I need to determine that if Smith scores, it'll mean nine points for me in my fantasy league.

Please tell me I'm not the only one.

As we've noted before, the 2006 edition of the Baltimore Ravens are looking suspiciously like the 2000 edition of the Baltimore Ravens. Not that that's a bad thing if you're a fan. After all, 2-0 is 2-0, is even if it is a soft 2-0 in the NFL. Then again, if you're counting on any Ravens to produce on your fantasy football team, yesterday's game was simply another chapter in what may very well be a season-long tale of frustration.

Let's start with the good news. Admittedly, there isn't much:

The defense is as terrifying as it ought to be, with sacks, fumble recoveries and interceptions piling up everywhere in the first two games. Ray Lewis is back, but Adalius Thomas and Bart Scott have proven that there's more to the linebacking corps besides Ray-Ray. We knew Ed Reed would be OK, but Chris McAlister's resurgence has been a nice bonus. Terrell Suggs got his first sack of the season and so did Trevor Pryce. Here's hoping you picked up these guys early. Sunday even saw them grab two points on a safety. On special teams, B.J. Sams has been ordinary as both a punt and kick returner, though in fantasy football we ought to admit picking up points there is generally considered to be gravy.

Sure, the offense might be sputtering, but Matt Stover hasn't missed a field goal that counted since last season. He'll keep piling up the points, and deliver at least a few more games like yesterday's where he puts more than 10 on the board all by himself.

Now the bad news:

While Steve McNair might not make mistakes, he's not exactly lighting it up either. He's yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a game, and he only has a pair of touchdown passes. And while he's a great leader in the huddle, it makes absolutely no sense to put him in your fantasy lineup unless you have no other choice. And at levels of production like this, he's pulling all of his receivers down to his level too. Derrick Mason might be worth a look as a third WR on a fantasy squad, but Mark Clayton has no business being on anyone's roster. And Todd Heap, even though he may have caught a touchdown in yesterday's game, looks to be dragged down as well.

The running game is equally perplexing. In a way, the situation is much like Denver in that the ball is getting spread around in the backfield between Jamal Lewis, Musa Smith and Mike Anderson. The problem is that while you could count on at least one Broncos back having a decent performance every week, the Ravens backfield can't boast the same. Even worse, Brian Billick looked more than happy to lift Lewis out of the Ravens goal line package on second and third down in favor of Smith. The result: Both Smith and Anderson got into the end zone yesterday (though Smith's touchdown was called back on a penalty), while Lewis just couldn't get his blockers to open up any holes for him near the goal line. The good news: Lewis is still a little dinged up, and if he can heal helped along by Billick using him more gingerly, that might mean bigger games down the road.

As a whole, the offense still looks like it's in training camp, as they committed a number of motion and procedure penalties. You might be able to get away with that in Baltimore against Oakland in September, but you won't be able to get away with it against Pittsburgh or Cincinnati on the road in January. If this team needs to get into a shootout, a real possibility with the Bengals, they'll be seriously behind the eight ball.

Or so they hope.

Jamal Lewis set the NFL single-game rushing mark this week in 2003, after coming out and predicting that he would do so against the Bengals. Lewis rushed for 295 yards in the game, not including a 60-yard gain that was nullified for a penalty.

Lewis should be applauded for not predicting that he will again set the NFL single-game rushing mark against the Raiders this week because it could happen. Even with a hip injury. There are those Raiders fans who believed that the defense looked good on defense last week.

Those people are dopes.

The only way the Raiders defense would look good would be if they were playing, well, their own offense. The Raiders were pathetic against the run. Everybody knew the Chargers were going to try to run the ball to protect quarterback Philip Rivers making his first start. So how did the Raiders respond? By allowing LaDainian Tomlinson to rush for more than 100 yards in his first five attempts.

Or at least it seemed that way.

The Raiders only looked good on defense when Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer sat on the ball in the beginning of the third quarter. The Raiders will not have that luxury this week. Ravens quarterback Steve McNair is not Rivers and Brian Billick isn't really known to show restraint. Things could get ugly for the Raiders this week. The Raiders might have a chance though, if Ray Lewis is hosting a Super Bowl party tonight or something.

It might just be me, but if the question was "Better Year: Jamal Lewis or a tree stump with a rotting root structure," I might have to go with the stump. I know that Jamal's had some (ahem) off-field distractions in recent years, and that's supposed to be behind him, but his decline in production over last few years is staggering.

His decline has as quick and as thorough as that of Britney Spears. All that's left for him to do now is spend a few romantic evenings with Kevin Federline. This might be a good pick, that is, if your league count stats from 2003. Look at his yardage totals in the past few years. 2066 three years ago, 1006 two years ago, and 906 last year. His yards-per-carry numbers parrot those: 5.3, 4.3, 3.4. I see Lewis going in the third or fourth round in some fantasy drafts, and it baffles me. If you do draft him, make it with a much later pick, and then take Mike Anderson shortly thereafter.

I'm not entirely sold on Chester Taylor, either, but I'd be more willing to roll the dice on him than I would be on a Jamal Lewis comeback. Taylor's at least got a clean slate. All he has to overcome is some talented competition from Minnesota's other backs, and the dumb new Vikings uniforms. Lewis has history--a lot of it--to overcome.