As Watson noted earlier, there has been a fairly decent seismic shift in the National League Arms Race, what with the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden only 24 hours after the Brewers picked up CC Sabathia. And just like it affects real baseball, the trade does some things for fantasy owners as well. So, why not look at the four biggest names in the trade?
Rich Harden, SP -- I've said it once, and I'll say it again: sell high on Harden. Billy Beane rarely gets suckered and this deal kind of looks like one of those times, no? Which makes me think "ruh-roh" with regard to Harden's health. Especially when you remember that during his next to last start in an Oakland uni, he was barely topping 90 mph. But his move to one of the most offensively potent teams and a World Series contender should boost his value in theory, making him a prime sell.
On his second at-bat of the game tonight, Alfonso Soriano was beaned on the left wrist. ESPN just reported that he has a mildly displaced fracture of the fourth metacarpal. Translation: broken hand. He's reportedly out six weeks.
This is a blow to the Cubs, but hardly devastating. He's a stud and has been hitting as well as anyone in the everyday lineup, but the team is loaded with capable hitters and he's a defensive liability. They dealt without him for two weeks earlier in the season and played quite well, going 9-5.
For the Cubs, several guys will benefit playing-time wise. The options are plentiful thanks for the versatility of the bench and Mark DeRosa. Mike Fontenot or Ronny Cedeno can play second base while DeRosa shifts to LF. Micah Hoffpauir -- sure to get the call from triple-A -- will get some looks in LF as well. Finally, should Lou Pinella decide to stray from his CF platoon, Reed Johnson can play left while Jim Edmonds stays in center. There won't be an everyday lineup. Musical chairs is more like it.
As reported earlier on FanHouse, Cedric Benson has finally been given his long overdue walking papers by the Monsters of the Midway. I opined on the value of Benson vs. rookie-to-be Matt Forte already. What I said then remains for Benson -- he's pretty much worthless no matter where he plays -- Forte becomes an intriguing option in yearly and keeper leagues alike.
The Bears are going to run the football. Even if they aren't successful at doing so, they will keep pounding it. The defense won't be what it was in '05-'06, but when healthy it is certainly better than the version we saw for most of last season. The offense flat-out sucks. That means they have to find a way to eat some clock with the ball and win low-scoring affairs. Enter Forte and a hopefully rejuvenated offensive line. At this point, I like him as a quality flex guy (RB3) or bye-week RB2 replacement for this season and nothing worse moving forward (keeper leagues) as you'd hope the Bears offense improves around him as he matures and learns the NFL game.
Things could change -- Travis Henry and Shaun Alexander are still looking for work, among others. For right now, though, the competition for Forte isn't exactly daunting with the ungood Adrian Peterson (sorry, I have to make mention that he's not the good one per the fantasy writers guild rulebook) and the diminutive Garrett Wolfe as his backfield mates.
For Matt, it's time to take down Joe as the most famous Forte.
For Ced, it's time to wait until Alexander and Henry are signed before even getting a look because no one will want him over those two. Or at least time to find a freaking chauffeur for God's sake.
Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.
If you Google "Gavin Floyd Fantasy", you'll see plenty of articles mentioning his hot start. Trust me, I just did it. I wanted to make sure he was a sell high candidate. Just in case his 2-0 record, 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP didn't make him a hot enough commodity. I found no less than four articles (just scanning quickly) that recommended picking him up. So the hype is there.
So are the stats, at least on the face of things, as you can see above. But if we dig a little deeper, we'll see that Gavin might be pitching above his head (kind of like the White Sox are playing -- no way!)
First of all, Floyd is experiencing a spike in fly balls allowed this season, up to 53.7%. No big deal; outs are outs. Until you see that he's only allowing 6.9% of those fly balls to become home runs, an unsustainable pace. Like, that's not even my opinion or anything, man. It's just a fact.
Also unsustainable? His strand rate of 85.5% and his BABIP of .136. In other bad news, his K/9 and K/BB are both down (to 4.66 and 1.25, kind of respectively) while his BB/9 is actually up (3.72).
So to recap: basically every peripheral stat that we look for to determine if a pitcher is getting lucky with a really nice start points the wrong way for Mr. Floyd.
Gavin is a very talented pitcher with a wicked curveball. People have been talking about him as a great prospect for several years now. And they're talking again, because he's pitching well. But every single one of the peripherals surrounding his hot start point to him being lucky. And, yes, it is very difficult to peddle that young talent-ridden, upside-mcgriddled prospect that's been teasing fantasy owners for years. But facts is facts.
He's going to come back down to Urf, and you would be immensely better off packaging him with another player to deal for a struggling stud. Players that come to mind are Roy Oswalt or the almost recovered John Lackey and Scott Kazmir. All three would be absolute hijacks, even if you had to include another midlevel player for Roy.
If you have been playing fantasy baseball for any amount of time, you know all about Ryan Dempster, or as we call him in our league, the Dumptruck. Why give this guy such a negative nickname? Well ... it's because he's been less than reliable over his career.
Bouncing between closing and starting, Dempster has only been a draft day darling when he appeared to be able to provide the holiest of holy statistics, saves. (Indeed, he used to be Exhibit A on the "never pay for saves" theorem, because he generally paired his mediocre saves with a bloated WHIP and ERA.)
This season, manager Lou Piniella decided to move Dempster back into the rotation, which seemed largely a decision predicated on the best fit for Kerry Wood, plus the talented youngster Carlos Marmol. It did not seem a decision made because Dempster was an ace in the wings.
And yet ... he's burst out of the gates. He's 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a teensy 1.04 WHIP. In a league where a lot of actual aces are doing far less than this, is Dempster the kind of guy who you can count on for the whole season?
Meet the ... Old Dirty Bastards. Dirt McGirts. Or, if you prefer, the Gritty McHustles. Perhaps you know that Darren Erstad played college football. If not, you should know that his hustle:dive ratio exceeds even scrappy David Eckstein. I don't have the energy or the chops to out-funny Ken Tremendous, of course, but you get the point. And Erstad is in Houston now, so that doesn't help. The White Sox are stuck in this non believing land where they think their team will continue to compete in an ever improving AL Central. They will not. They do offer, however, some decent fantasy options.
The Breakout Alexei Ramirez is probably not going to get drafted in a lot of leagues. However, second basemen are always at a premium, and if you can find one cheap, well, you're way ahead of the curve. Ramirez hit 20 homers in Cuba last year and while signed to a four year deal, he's not guaranteed playing time in anything more than the immediate future, meaning he has to produce early and often to keep playing. I like those odds. Draft him late, laugh at the owner who spent an early pick on Dan Uggla and use your early pick to get a bounceback slugger or ace pitcher.
The Bust No one is getting drafted high enough to really be considered a bust, but I'll take Paul Konerko here. He's aging, people still think of him as underrated for some reason (well, actually, that's probably fair). Anyway, just look at Konerko's career numbers, in terms of power, and you can pretty obviously see the natural progression, where he broke out following an injury plagued 27 year old season and hit his peaked out early in his 30's. Now he's 32 and going to continue trending downward. If you're burning an 8th or 9th round pick expecting a rebound, it's just too early.
Question: Who leads the Chicago Blackhawks in goal scoring and ranks 9th in the league with 33 goals?
Patrick Kane? Jonathan Toews? Martin Havlat? Robert Lang?
Nope. It's Patrick Sharp, the once-forgotten Philadelphia Flyers prospect that has quietly developed into one of the league's more dangerous snipers. The likes of Vincent Lecavalier, Dany Heatley, and Olli Jokinen are all eating this guy's goal-scoring ice dust.
One of the bigger reasons for Chi-Town's resurgence has been the fine and underrated play of this small sniper. Sharp, together with Rene Bourque, has given the Blackhawks the most dangerous shorthanded units in the entire NHL. Sharp leads the league (tied with Daniel Alfredsson) with seven shorthanded goals, and the Hawks lead the entire NHL with 14 goals while a man or two sits in the sin bin.
Fantasy Leaguers: It's rarely smart to bank on somebody who gets a huge amount of their offense from shorthanded goals, as that offense is never steady from year to year. That said, Sharp should be good for 25-30 goals per season from here on out. Make sure you pilfer him from under the noses of your rival GMs.
Major League Mongering will look at players rumored to be on the move between now and the July 31st pseudo-trade-deadline.
Why does this need to happen? It's pretty simple really. Jermaine Dye is in the last season of his contract, and the White Sox need to make some changes if they're going to compete for the AL Central again anytime soon. There's also the fact that Dye has become distant from the rest of the team ever since the White Sox gave Mark Buehrle a contract extension.
He wants to know why the team hasn't talked to him about an extension, and it's because they want to trade him.
The Dodgers need some power in their lineup, and though Dye has struggled this season, his bat has start to come to life again since the break. He's hitting .367 with 4 home runs and 7 RBI in his last seven games and looks to be on the verge of busting out of his slump.
Also the change of scenery would probably do Dye well. I'm sure he feels unappreciated in Chicago where he won a World Series MVP in 2005, and was the team's best player last season. Getting a fresh start on the west coast could be exactly what he needs.
It looks like the Blackhawks have found a backup goaltender they are comfortable with, after having to go through the disaster that was Brian Boucher. Go figure that the Blue Jackets went and claimed Boucher ... What the hell? Doug MacLean's last laugh? 0.o
Chicago Blackhawks General Manager Dale Tallon announced today that the Blackhawks have agreed to terms with goaltender Patrick Lalime on a 1-year contract.
Lalime, 32, 6'3", 189 pound netminder appeared in 12 games with the Blackhawks this past season posting a record of 4-5-1 with one shutout, a 3.07 goals against average and a .896 save percentage.
After suffering through a miserable post-lockout season with the Blues, Lalime started the year on the sidelines as he was recovering from a herniated disc and shell shock. I was at the game where he staged his comeback and shut out the Canucks at GM Place. He looked to have his agility back, and was hardly rusty behind a poor Hawks defence.
While he is highly unlikely to ever return to the level of a #1 goaltender, as he was with the Ottawa Senators, Lalime should provide the Hawks with a good backup to Nikolai Khabibulin, who has been fighting inconsistency and aches and pains during his tenure with the Hawks.
On his second at-bat of the game tonight, 
As 
Fantasy Felony
If you have been playing fantasy baseball for any amount of time, you know all about 
To get you ready for draft season, 
Question: Who leads the Chicago Blackhawks in goal scoring and ranks 9th in the league with 33 goals?
Major League Mongering
It looks like the Blackhawks have found a backup goaltender they are comfortable with, after having to go through the disaster that was Brian Boucher. Go figure that the Blue Jackets went and claimed Boucher ... What the hell? Doug MacLean's last laugh? 0.o
