Fantasy FanHouse

Jay Bruce, Perfect in Every Way, Even Talks About Sample Sizes

Will Brinson — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:15:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, MLB Gossip, MLB Media Watch, Cincinnati, Fantasy MLB

Jay Bruce has taken the baseball world by storm. He is hitting .450 plus, with three home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.5 K/BB rate plus two stolen bases. In 46 at bats. So, more or less, the only way he could be more perfect is if he understands the importance of certain statistical evaluations. And, of course, he does.

No surprise, Bruce is getting the last laugh. Heading into this season, in many circles he was considered baseball's best positional prospect. Yet, a start that included 16 hits in 30 at-bats is an attention grabber, no matter what the expectation.

Asked to explain his Red-hot start, Bruce said simply "Sample size."

Picture me blushing in awkward man-love admiration. Because that's, um, not what I am doing. Anytime a baseball player starts talking about BABIP or sample sizes it is awesome to find out that we have, as dak at FJM said, a "dude who gets it" on our hands.

Perhaps the best irony -- and maybe I am stretching it by wanting to think that Bruce believes nerdilicous statistical evaluations -- is that he has Dusty Baker as a manager. And Dusty does stats like Charlie does surf. Or Bruce does slump.

Fantasy Spin: Keeper leagues all hold on as tightly as possible to Bruce. Seasonal leagues may want to consider selling because, as you can see above, even Bruce knows this pace can't continue. And right now, you can get a pretty sickner bounty for him.

Jay Bruce, Perfect in Every Way, Even Talks About Sample Sizes originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start

Will Brinson — Thu, 15 May 2008 01:00:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on Edinson Volquez right now. Okay, actually, there are actually a few reasons why you don't want to move him. His sparkling ERA (1.12), coupled with his six wins (tied for second in the bigs) and 57 K's in 48 innings have made him a valuable fantasy commodity.

But, as is often the case, things are not all that they seem. Reality tells us that there are several factors working against Volquez' current success, and that makes him a superb sell high option.

First, his stats. A 1.12 ERA and a 10.61 K/9 ratio are wonderful. But there are some other mitigating factors to those numbers. His WHIP (1.26) is actually higher than his ERA. That's not obscenely shocking, but it does indicate some luck. As does his ERA when compared to his 4.84 BB/9.

Both of those numbers tell us that he is frequently allowing baserunners, but not letting them score. And that checks out perfectly with his 90.8 strand rate, 20% above the big league norm. In other words, some of these guys getting on base are going to start scoring more frequently.

Factor in his home park/bandstand alongside his 2.8% HR/FB ratio, and it becomes clear that more balls will be leaving the park soon as well. And finally, he is a rookie. Even with Dusty Baker managing -- and that might actually make it worse -- he is going to get tired later in the season and/or reach a preset innings ceiling, greatly limiting his value, especially in H2H leagues.

Justin Verlander lost is seventh game on Wednesday. The chances of him going 4-24 on the season are about as high as Volquez going 24-4. If it's a hitter you're looking for, Cincy teammate Adam Dunn is a nice possibility, given is stinkjob to start the season. Or maybe Corey Hart, with only one tater on the year thus far. The other owner is going to know that you're trying to sell Volquez high, but I'd be willing to bet that anyone owning those player is at least willing to listen to a straight up swap.

Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 15 May 2008 01:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap

Matt Snyder — Wed, 07 May 2008 00:15:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.

Aaron Harang is a bonafide upper-echelon fantasy pitcher, and when owners get through the first week of May with a 1-5 pitcher whom they landed in the early rounds ... well, they start to get angry and impatient. A desperate, disillusioned owner is a vulnerable owner in the trade market, so it's time to swoop in. Pull all your usual smooth-talking tricks. You don't have to pull a George Costanza ("do that thing you do, where you lie to everybody," says Jerry), but you can allow emphasis on cons while conveniently forgetting about the pros if the owner is complaining.

As I said, he's 1-5. His team sucks, and the run support he's receiving is embarrassing. After Tuesday night's eighth outing, Harang had surrendered 19 earned runs, while his team had only scored 23 (five of which were in one game which happened to be his only bad outing, so you can see there's bad luck at play as well).

Bet on the luck changing -- thus altering his record positively -- and everything else to remain the same.

All Harang's numbers are in line outside of the W-L column (which we know is not a quality indicator of the value of a starting pitcher in the long run) are very solid. He's punched out 48 in eight starts, while sporting a 3.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10; yet he's being overshadowed in fantasy circles by Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. For the rest of this season, Harang is a much more reliable option. It ain't close. With the young guys you'll get inconsistency and the possibility of hitting a wall late in the season when the innings count gets up there into unprecedented territory. Harang is a thoroughbred ... going 210+ innings in each of the last three years and 230+ in the last two. That's why he's among the league leaders in Ks each year and will continue to be.

Look, the Reds offense hasn't been good by any stretch, but with good hitters throughout the order (Junior, Dunn, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Keppinger, and hopefully Jay Bruce eventually) there is no reason to believe Harang's run of poor fortune will continue.

Harang's doing his job, and the Reds' offense should start doing theirs.

You need to do yours and trade for him at this record low price.

Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 07 May 2008 00:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Johnny Cueto Is Already 'Old and Busted'

Will Brinson — Thu, 01 May 2008 00:30:00 EST

Filed under: Phoenix, Reds, Diamondbacks, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, MLB Kids Are Alright

Okay, okay. "Old and busted" is probably a bit excessive. But Johnny Cueto is certainly not the "new hotness" any more. That title, friends, belongs to Max Scherzer. You may have seen me post about him once or twice. Anyway, the point of recognizing the huge schism between the two right now is that it shows just how ridiculous hype gets in fantasy baseball leagues.

No less than two weeks ago, Cueto was the new Pedro Martinez, only in his prime and with faster, better stuff. And now, Cueto is getting dropped from fantasy teams left and right after giving up six earned runs in less than two innings this week.

All of this while Scherzer, who threw four plus perfect innings and got inserted into the rotation, is being added at "record" pace. I use the quotes because this is what happens with baller young pitchers when they get called up. The importance here, is to recognize the importance of selling high on these kids. If you go look at any "recent trades involving" lists on Scherzer, you'll see people like Johan Santana and Ryan Howard on the other side. And that's just ridiculous.

But the exact same thing was happening with Cueto a few weeks ago. Scherzer is going to be a dominant pitcher. And he is going to strike a ton of guys out. But the Diamondbacks are very much interested in the future of their organization. And Doug Davis is going to return. In other words, his rotation job and innings aren't guaranteed. But upside blinded owners don't see that.

That means that if you own Scherzer now -- especially in single year leagues -- you should be shopping the hell out of him. If you're going to get him on May 2nd with a waiver claim, you should already be shopping him. And if you're in a keeper league, well, there's no absolute guarantee that he'll be great forever (see: Liriano, Francisco) so there's nothing wrong with getting a proven stud for him.

Either way, the lesson is that hype is always fleeting. No matter how realistic a lot of us can be, there is always an owner blinded by the upside and potential of a young pitcher who just got called up. (Raises hand to symbolize occasional guilt.) You have to realize who that owner is and take advantage before your young pitcher gets Cuetoed.

Johnny Cueto Is Already 'Old and Busted' originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 01 May 2008 00:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Kids Are Alright: Remember, Corey Patterson Is Not Good

Will Brinson — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:00:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Kids Are Alright, Fantasy MLB

When Dusty Baker announced his impending reign of terror, he did so with great authority. He mandated that Joey Votto stop looking at so many pitches (even if they were bad) and he immediately sent top prospect and future of the organization Jay Bruce back down to Triple-A. Understandable, certainly, because Dusty had Corey Patterson on his roster.

Yes, by "understandable", I do in fact mean "certifiably and irrationally stupid". Bruce was the consensus number one prospect in all of baseball in 2007 and seemed nearly assured of the starting centerfield job in Cincy. Anyway, I hate to be overtly optimistic, much less to trust the mad (cow disease ridden?) brain of Mr. Baker, but I think there's a pretty good chance we see Bruce back in a Reds uniform within the next few weeks.

Why? Because Corey Patterson stinks, that's why. Yes, he started off hot, but as my good friend Mr. Greber pointed out in a new series of articles today, so did Chris Shelton. Now, he's batting .183 and not clogging up the bases to the tune of a .254 OBP. Congratulations, everyone. (The insane thing is that he has four home runs. Just weird.)

Bruce, meanwhile, is putting up numbers (.333/.348/.561) with three home runs and four stolen bases in just 16 games at Louisville. The best part, Dusty? Only two walks. That's right. You don't even have to tell him to swing more! Look, the point of all this Dusty-dogging and Patterson-bashing isn't to point out how silly the Reds organization was for signing him to coach the team (not entirely anyway).

The point is to tell you, the fantasy owner, what a steal you could be getting on Jay Bruce right now. The kid is a masher, he's ready for the majors and sooner or later, Dusty is going to have to cave and let him on the field at the major league level. You either need to a) pick him up and stash him now or b) make a play for him from another owner before it's too late. Bruce is the future, and if there's anything the Reds should learn from the way Votto, Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez are currently playing, it's that the future is now.

Kids Are Alright: Remember, Corey Patterson Is Not Good originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Geeks: Carson Palmer's Ready To Rip It Up!

Sportz Assassin — Sun, 29 Jul 2007 15:29:00 EST

Filed under: Bengals, AFC North, Fantasy Football, Cincinnati

Carson Palmer says he's feeling great and ready to have a big year for the Bengals in the upcoming season.

"It's comforting to know that I am confident in my knee and it can withstand whatever is thrown at it," said Palmer, who looked sharp in his first 2007 training camp practice Friday. "I don't have to worry about the rehab and all the stuff I had to worry about last year."

Palmer has always had a close relationship with Chad Johnson, but this off-season, he scheduled off-season workouts with TJ Houshmandzadeh and Tab Perry. He also stumped for the team to re-sign free agents TE Reggie Kelly and RB Kenny Watson. He's not just the go-to guy on the field, but the go-to guy in the locker room. And as for his knee?

"It's the first day and I've already had 15 questions on my knee. But I'm hoping those are just first-day questions and they'll be gone tomorrow. It's just good to be healthy and in shape and not worried about what's going to happen."

The Jungle ... and your fantasy squad ... could see quite a few huge days from ol' #9 this season.

Fantasy Geeks: Carson Palmer's Ready To Rip It Up! originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 29 Jul 2007 15:29:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Major League Mongering: Bronson Arroyo for Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Pat Lackey — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 13:15:00 EST

Filed under: Atlanta, Braves, Reds, NL East, NL Central, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Rumors, Cincinnati

Major League Mongering will look at players rumored to be on the move between now and the July 31st pseudo-trade-deadline.

The Braves are in second place and bearing down on the Mets despite a rotation that's giving lots of starts to Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Chuck James, Andrew Lerew, and Jo-Jo Reyes. It's all very un-Braves-like if you ask me. While most of those guys haven't been awful, it's pretty safe to assume that the Braves would like to add a veteran arm to solidify that rotation before the July 31st deadline.

Buster Olney wrote in his blog yesterday that a rumor was passed his way that the Braves were inquiring about Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo (Olney link is Insider only, sorry). Arroyo would be a guy that would make a lot of sense for the Braves. He eats up innings like crazy and he's got plenty of experience in pressure packed post-season pitching, having been with the Red Sox from 2003-2005. Add in the fact that he's had a pretty poor first half and the Braves may be able to prod Cincy to sell low on him, and you've got yourself the making of a deadline deal.

What might he bring back? Olney speculates that the Reds would ask for no less than Jarrod Saltalamacchia to finish the trade, and that's believable as well. The Reds have the makings of a strong rotation with Arroyo, and Aaron Harang, as well as Homer Bailey on the cusp of breaking out, and I doubt Wayne Krivsky would break that core up cheaply. The Braves are known to be shopping Salty because they've already got Brian McCann behind the plate and he's not going anywhere. The Braves would have to decide if getting Arroyo into the rotation is worth pressing forward with Scott Thorman and Julio Franco at first base (where Salty's been getting a lot of reps lately).

What other teams are interested? I haven't seen Arroyo's name linked to anyone else, but if he were known to be available I think a number of other contenders might come knocking. Just about every single rebuilding team in the league is asking the Braves about Saltalamacchia though, since he's one of the best catching prospects in baseball. The Braves will likely get a lot of good offers for him.

Should fantasy owners care? Well, neither one of these two guys are widely owned by fantasy players at the moment, but a trade would boost both their values by a good amount. Salty would be playing every day and Arroyo would be on a contender that would get him some run support. Both would be worth picking up for a stretch run if this trade goes down.

Olney link via MLB Trade Rumors

Major League Mongering: Bronson Arroyo for Jarrod Saltalamacchia originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 19 Jul 2007 13:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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