Fantasy Cubs

As Watson noted earlier, there has been a fairly decent seismic shift in the National League Arms Race, what with the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden only 24 hours after the Brewers picked up CC Sabathia. And just like it affects real baseball, the trade does some things for fantasy owners as well. So, why not look at the four biggest names in the trade?

Rich Harden, SP -- I've said it once, and I'll say it again: sell high on Harden. Billy Beane rarely gets suckered and this deal kind of looks like one of those times, no? Which makes me think "ruh-roh" with regard to Harden's health. Especially when you remember that during his next to last start in an Oakland uni, he was barely topping 90 mph. But his move to one of the most offensively potent teams and a World Series contender should boost his value in theory, making him a prime sell.

On his second at-bat of the game tonight, Alfonso Soriano was beaned on the left wrist. ESPN just reported that he has a mildly displaced fracture of the fourth metacarpal. Translation: broken hand. He's reportedly out six weeks.

This is a blow to the Cubs, but hardly devastating. He's a stud and has been hitting as well as anyone in the everyday lineup, but the team is loaded with capable hitters and he's a defensive liability. They dealt without him for two weeks earlier in the season and played quite well, going 9-5.

For the Cubs, several guys will benefit playing-time wise. The options are plentiful thanks for the versatility of the bench and Mark DeRosa. Mike Fontenot or Ronny Cedeno can play second base while DeRosa shifts to LF. Micah Hoffpauir -- sure to get the call from triple-A -- will get some looks in LF as well. Finally, should Lou Pinella decide to stray from his CF platoon, Reed Johnson can play left while Jim Edmonds stays in center. There won't be an everyday lineup. Musical chairs is more like it.

Kerry Wood turns 31 next Monday. It was once thought by his 31st birthday that he'd have racked up all kinds of accolades by now. So he's old and a disappointment by those standards.

More recently it was thought he'd be out of baseball by now. So he's a feel-good story by that standard.

Most of all, though, he is absolutely filthy on the mound right now.

I remember on May 1st, after Wood blew a save against the Brewers, one of my friends texted me and asked when the Cubs would remove Wood from the closer duties. It actually prompted me to write this. Sure, it was probably somewhat wishful thinking -- but I just had this feeling. The makeup he has on the hill teamed with his size and ability to throw nearly 100 MPH along with the maturity and character he's built up through all the trying injury-riddled years just had "stud closer" written all over it to my biased eyes. I have never been more happy to be correct.

Since that blown save on the first of May, he has been lights out. He's been better than Carlos Marmol.

New Studs takes a look at players ready to make the leap from "possibly productive fantasy player" to "must-have fantasy stud." This is not a "you've never heard of this dude, but ... " series -- these should be names you already know.

Coming into the season, I was as skeptical as anyone -- being a Cubs fan -- concerning Geovany Soto's breakthrough 2007 campaign. Prior to 2007, Soto had only 25 career jacks in nearly 1600 at-bats in the minors. He never OPSed higher than 750, and his career minor league batting average was .262.

Of course, in 2007 he absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League with a .353 average, 1076 OPS, 26 HRs, and 109 RBIs in only 110 games. He even crushed the ball in the show once he was recalled to the tune of a 1048 OPS with five bombs and 23 RBI in only 28 games.

So we knew he was capable, but what about consistency (you know Joe Morgan was worried about it)? 2007, after all, could easily have been an outlier instead of a breakthrough campaign. We've seen fluky seasons before.

It wasn't one of those, though. It was a beginning.

This picture could have been from one of four different games this year. It wasn't supposed to be this way.

I just wanted to let you know before you visit all the (OTHER) big-name fantasy or real sports engines across the internet, though, that the Cubs are not going to change closers anytime soon.

Nope, those know-it-all types are all wrong in this situation. They will inundate you with information you already knew. You know, all those stats that tell you Carlos Marmol is a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. You'll see strikeout numbers, hear non-stat based arguments, and be reminded about how much better a closer Marmol would be.

Blah blah blah freaking blah.

Here's the problem: Those people aren't talking about what's important. Telling someone that Marmol is a better pitcher than Wood these days is like saying you'd rather have Jay Bruce than Corey Patterson ... only a complete moron would dispute it (oops, sorry Dusty). Everyone that follows baseball knows this. It's no secret, and it wasn't one before the season started.

But the people who are telling you the Cubs are about to make the switch to Marmol are wrong. Plain and simple.

If you have been playing fantasy baseball for any amount of time, you know all about Ryan Dempster, or as we call him in our league, the Dumptruck. Why give this guy such a negative nickname? Well ... it's because he's been less than reliable over his career.

Bouncing between closing and starting, Dempster has only been a draft day darling when he appeared to be able to provide the holiest of holy statistics, saves. (Indeed, he used to be Exhibit A on the "never pay for saves" theorem, because he generally paired his mediocre saves with a bloated WHIP and ERA.)

This season, manager Lou Piniella decided to move Dempster back into the rotation, which seemed largely a decision predicated on the best fit for Kerry Wood, plus the talented youngster Carlos Marmol. It did not seem a decision made because Dempster was an ace in the wings.

And yet ... he's burst out of the gates. He's 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a teensy 1.04 WHIP. In a league where a lot of actual aces are doing far less than this, is Dempster the kind of guy who you can count on for the whole season?