Fantasy FanHouse

Fantasy Focus: Players on the Move

Matt Snyder — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:55:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy Baseball

We've already discussed the implications of the C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden trades here on Fantasy FanHouse, but what about the other names that recently found new homes?

Joe Blanton
Much like Harden, Blanton's going to go through a whole new experience when he pitches in front of a boisterous packed house tonight. He's going to get a nice trial by fire as the Phillies face the Mets and Braves this week -- Blanton's a two-start pitcher. Look for the change of league to ignite Blanton. He was too good a pitcher to keep scuffling along with such a poor record (5-12) and ERA (4.96) anyway. Now is the time to trade for him, because his stock will never be lower. The ERA was a full run lower last season, and he had a nice 140/40 K/BB. This season he's partially having issues because of his control. He's only sporting a 62/35 K/BB in a little more than half the innings as last year. As I said, the change of league will help ... facing a whole batch of new hitters is always advantageous to the pitcher. His turn-around starts tonight.

Richie Sexson
Going to the Yankees never hurts a guy's value. Sure, Sexson won't be playing even close to everyday ... but if you play in a really deep AL-Only league and you are just looking for power numbers, he'll help. He's going to get at-bats as a DH and 1B against lefties. Don't expect him to infringe upon Jason Giambi's value.

Ray Durham
Believe it or not, going from a bad team to a very good one actually hurts the value of Durham ... and the value of Rickie Weeks as well. Weeks should keep the starting role for the time being, but Durham will surely cut into that playing time sooner rather than later. You can't consider either guy a fantasy starter in any league at this point unless it's a really deep NL-Only. If you have either -- and think you can dupe someone in your league -- now is the time to trade them. Otherwise you'll be cutting dead weight quite soon.

Fantasy Focus: Players on the Move originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Cheap Yard Work: We Have a NOMAAAAHHH Sighting

Matt Snyder — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 23:13:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy Baseball

Cheap Yard Work helps you pick out likely free agents in your league that have been raking over the past week.

Keep in mind we have a really small sample with which to work this week ... because of that I made sure to pick out some names that we should all know in fantasyland.

Nomar Garciaparra, SS, Dodgers
Post-ASG stats: .462/.462/1.000, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI
Betcha never thought this first guy would be fantasy relevant again. I sure as hell didn't. Yet there he was dropping two bombs on Saturday. Don't expect that power to continue, but he will be playing pretty much everyday. You could do much worse, especially now while he's hot.

Billy Butler, DH, Royals
Post-ASG stats: .385/.429/.846, 2 HR, 7 RBI
We've been waiting on him to break through as a middle-of-the-order power bat and even endured a stint in the minors. He should be back for good, considering the Royals aren't gonna factor into the AL playoff picture.

Melvin Mora, 3B, O's
Post-ASG stats: .400/.471/1.067, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R
If you are one of the few owners looking for help at the loaded 3B position, Mora should suffice for the rest of the year. He's ancient, yeah, but he's still more than serviceable in the power categories.

Garrett Anderson, OF, Halos
Post-ASG stats: .455/.455/.727, HR, 5 RBI
He's actually probably not worth it in leagues where he's available due to oldness. He just fit with the theme so I figured I'd throw him in.

Cheap Yard Work: We Have a NOMAAAAHHH Sighting originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 20 Jul 2008 23:13:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Is Clayton Kershaw Hurt? Nope, He's Just Not As Good As You Thought.

Matthew Greber — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:09:00 EST

Filed under: Los Angeles, Dodgers, NL West, Fantasy Baseball

In todays game against the Chicago White Sox, Dodgers rookie pitcher Clayton Kershaw was pulled after four innings after only giving up two runs.Kershaw only threw 69 pitches, hardly a yeoman-like effort.

So what's the deal? Is Kershaw hurt? Well, not as far as I can see - no reports suggests Kershaw was pulled for anything besides his ineffectiveness. 29 of those 69 pitches were balls, which isn't terrible but doesn't suggest he was locked into the zone.

Kershaw has yet to notch his first major league victory, and if you are a Dodger fan or in a fantasy league, that comes as a bit of a letdown considering the huge amount of hype surrounding the youngster. Sports talk radio, internet chats and office watercooler talk ask one question - is Kershaw a bust?

Hardly.

Sure, he's a Dodger which means he's partially evil and eats small babies for breakfast. (What? I'm a Giants fan.) But he's also just a kid, and it's expected that things should be a bit rough for him out of the gates. He's barely 20 years old, people.

From a fantasy perspective, he's clearly great if you are in a keeper league. But in standard, single-season leagues the problem is that he's not even doing a good Johnny Cueto impression - that is, inconsistent starts but with a lot of strikeouts. He's doing okay in that category, but until he starts showing a bit more dominance, he's really not worth starting in most of your leagues. I'm holding onto him to see if he gets his act together, but in shallow leagues he's waiver fodder.

Oh look ... I made Tommy Lasorda cry.

Is Clayton Kershaw Hurt? Nope, He's Just Not As Good As You Thought. originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:09:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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MLB.com Exec Speaks About Supreme Court 'Fantasy Baseball Ruling'

Will Brinson — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 22:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Media Watch, Video Games, MLB Biz, Fantasy MLB

As Fornelli put it yesterday, the Supreme Court refusing to hear MLB Advanced Media's case regarding statistics on fantasy sports is a good thing, especially for fantasy players. Note that it is also a good thing for American sport fans who like their sports coverage cheaper and enjoy this basic thing we call "freedom" as well.

It really should not be an issue -- these statistics only exist because we, the American consumers, are willing to pump billions of dollars each year into attending, watching and becoming obsessively immersed in these sports. And judging by some of MLB.com's CEO Bob Bowman's responses in an interview with Darren Rovell, that concept is not lost on the large entities that are attempting to take control of stats back.

Darren: What was your reaction when you found out that the Supreme Court wouldn't hear this?

Bowman: I don't think our reaction was one of great surprise. Since September of '06, when the magistrate first ruled in Missouri, we've been operating as if that was going to be the case. The Court of Appeals upheld it, now the Supreme Court denied, so it won't be heard. Until further action, that is the law of the land. Further action may occur. We weren't surprised and we've been running our business as if it were the case.

It's a brief but excellent interview, and I highly suggest taking the link over to Rovell's page for the full answers. The other main points of contention -- and these are the "good" reasons, if I may play moral policeman for a second -- are the $50 million MLBAM paid to the players' union for the rights to the statistics several years ago and the "likeness" issue.

Regarding that large chunk of change that MLBAM dished out, hopefully they have a clause that will get some of it back. Obviously it was a calculated gamble on their part, because if they win the rights to the stats, the 50 extra large is chump change compared to what they would pull back in fantasy licensing revenues.

On the likeness issue -- think video games here, whereby it is illegal to use the name and image of players without a license -- I tend to agree with Advanced Media. Forcing an individual or a set of individuals to give up their likenesses simply based on public domain (stemming from their ability to become famous) is against most of the economic principles our country is based on.

So Bowman has a good point in that the court rulings "bolster" the likeness argument, and I am fine with that. And most Americans should be too. Only when would-be monopolies start trying to control publicly compiled statistics -- that are, again, generated because we are willing to spend our hard earned money on sports -- should we really begin to worry.

MLB.com Exec Speaks About Supreme Court 'Fantasy Baseball Ruling' originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 03 Jun 2008 22:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Supreme Court Does Not Care About Your Fantasy Baseball Team

Tom Fornelli — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:32:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Fans, MLB Biz

There's a company called C.B.C. Distribution and Marketing Inc. in Missouri that's been selling a fantasy baseball game on their website. They're having a minor problem though, because Major League Baseball won't let them use any of the players' names without obtaining a license from the league first.

C.B.C. thinks this is a bunch of crap, and that they don't need no stinking license to run their game. MLB thinks that they do. When there is something so important as fantasy baseball being kept from the masses of the United States, there's only a small group of nine people who can decide once and for all who is on the side of the righteous and just. They are the Supreme Court, and they don't care.

The Supreme Court on Monday refused to step into a dispute between a fantasy sports business and professional baseball.

Without comment, the justices declined to hear the case involving a segment of the $1.5 billion fantasy sports industry in the United States, in which participants manage imaginary teams based on the real-life performances of professional players.

This is actually good news for C.B.C. as it was MLB who was appealing to the Supreme Court after a federal court and the 8th District Circuit Court of Appeals in St. Louis both ruled in C.B.C.'s favor saying that MLB was trying to violate their right to free speech.

I'm not exactly that familiar with the way the legal system works in these cases, but I'm not quite sure how keeping a company from running a fantasy baseball site limits their free speech. Of course, as someone who plays fantasy baseball, I'm all for the decision.

The Supreme Court Does Not Care About Your Fantasy Baseball Team originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:32:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Cheap Yardwork: Heeeeere's Jhhhhhhhohnnny

Will Brinson — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 01:15:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

No one inspires more absolutely horrible, extemporaneous-letter, fantasy writing jokes than Jhonny Peralta. This makes zero sense, because the "H" is the only bizarre letter in his name, and there are only one of them. Yet, somehow I am able to fight through that fact and persevere with my putrid humor. Point being that Peralta tops the list of players you should consider adding this week.

Jhonny Peralta
7 day stats -- .333/.385/.708, 2HR, 3RBI, 2BB, 0SB
Peralta is the eternal fantasy tease after his monster season a few years back. He is streak, just like most free agent options, but he's white hot now and the Indians get four games at Texas followed by three games at Detroit, so you should expect to see him continue raking.

Mark Reynolds
7 day stats -- .359/.450/.941, 3HR, 3RBI, 3BB, 0SB
You may remember Reynolds from such hits as "Early April Fraud" and "Chris Shelton, Part Deux". Reynolds appears to have gotten sloppy with all the attention he got and fell off the radar. Then Chad Tracy came back and the dood started raking again. Snatch him up this week and start him while he's hot.

Jerry Hairston
7 day stats -- .458/.464/.652, 0HR, 4RBI, 4BB, 3SB
Guy just won't go away will he? Hairston continues to start, steal bases and have MI eligibility. That makes him start worthy in a large number of fantasy leagues. He's not a great player but you can't kill speed.

Cliff Floyd
7 day starts -- .357/.500/1.00, 3HR, 5RBI, 4BB, 0SB
You know what you're getting with ole' Cliff -- some taterjacks, some strikeouts and possibly limited AB's, in this case. Still, he's certainly a nice deeper end pickup and he's streaking now so that makes him a pretty nice option.

Cheap Yardwork: Heeeeere's Jhhhhhhhohnnny originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 02 Jun 2008 01:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Bust a Move: Hype Machine Rules the Day

Will Brinson — Tue, 27 May 2008 12:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB

As always, the hype machine owns everyone. Two youngsters -- one in Los Angeles and one in a somehow bigger circus scene that is Cincinnati.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD (18,458 Adds) -- Hey, I'm just as guilty as everyone else. A keeper league team I own is sinking quickly, and instead of grabbing someone to shore up this season, I've got a death grip on Kershaw. Joe Torre called him Sandy Koufax. Basically. And if the bullpen doesn't cough up his start, we'd be even hotter on the guy right now. Seasonal leagues should use their first waiver claim to grab him and then sell high. Keeper leagues want to hold if the price is right.

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN (13,017 Adds) -- It seems inevitable that he will stick, right? Well, because Dusty Baker is a fool, there is actually a question. Bruce is a legitimate threat to dominate this season, so he is a moderate buy. He's probably already too hyped (and owned) in your league, so it is tough to get a reasonable price. But if he begins to struggle, pounce on him in a trade offer.

Doug Davis, SP, ARI (3,840 Adds) -- Obviously, Davis returning from cancer was at best a risky proposition for fantasy owners. A great story, sure, but a risky bet. Sadly, he is still a sell high. The return is great, but history tells us he is not going to maintain a decent ERA. I'd use him in matchups for a back of the rotation guy, but don't be fooled by the fascinating nature of his cancer battle. (Heartless, I know.)

Max Scherzer, RP, ARI (1,451 Drops) -- A very strong buy. He still helps a ton in Roto leagues and can do some damage in H2H if he gets any long relief work, particularly in deeper leagues. He could still start later on and the hype on him has completely cooled at this point.

Clint Barmes, 2B/SS, COL (2,186 Drops) -- The latest in the line of Rockies to get injured, Barmes was a prime pickup for owners who needed middle infield help before he got injured. He's on the disabled list now, but he'll at least be back before Troy Tulowitzki, so that makes him a nice cheaper buy, likely off the waiver wire. Good pickup though, if you need the help.

Travis Hafner, 1B/DH, CLE (933 Drops) -- I mention this -- note the low number -- only because it seems insane that Pronk is already imminently droppable in many leagues. Especially when you consider two years ago, he was an MVP candidate and an absolute monster. Now, he's being shuttled. I don't think he's going to turn it around and I don't think he tops 30 homers this year, but if he's just filthy cheap and you have bench room, you have to at least make a claim.

Bust a Move: Hype Machine Rules the Day originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 27 May 2008 12:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Cheap Yardwork: Week Eight

Will Brinson — Sun, 18 May 2008 22:15:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B, TB
7 day stats -- .406/.441/.594, 1HR, 3RBI, 2BB, 0SB
Iwamura isn't going to set the world on fire with his power, but he gets hits (13) and he should score in the Rays lineup. Also, he's second base eligible. Not to mention the Rays have a nice set of matchups this week with Oakland and Baltimore on tap. A very nice start.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, FLA
7 day stats -- .269/.321/.615, 3HR, 5RBI, 2BB, 0SB
Hermida has been talent-laden for what seems like forever (it's actually not) and is finally starting to rake a little bit, even if his average numbers aren't especially appealing this week. Hermida is certainly a nice option in deeper leagues (only because of the Webb/Haren combo this week) and can help teams for the remainder of the season as well.

Blake DeWitt, 3B, LAD
7 day stats -- .467/.500/1.000, 2HR, 3RBI, 1BB, 0SB
Yes, he awkwardly has as many home runs in the past week as Andruw Jones does on the season. DeWitt probably got re-dropped in most medium sized leagues after getting hurt, but like the Cavs, he seemingly won't go away. Fortunately for him, he should continue to see playing time and is a nice option in most leagues as a CI.

Jose Guillen, OF, KC
7 day stats -- .458/.480/.792, 1HR, 10RBI, 1BB, 0SB
Guillen has a modest nine game hitting streak rolling right now, we know he has power potential and there's almost a near certainty -- given his season stats -- that he's available in your league. Seven game sked for him this week too, which makes him a pretty nice option in deeper leagues.

Jerry Hairston, OF, CIN
7 day stats -- .467/.529/.867, 0HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 3SB
This is a very deep option for most leagues. As an outfielder, he doesn't do much good except for his cheap speed. But in terms of a SS (seven games this year) or a 2B (16 games last year), you could certainly do worse. He normally wouldn't have any business starting but Jeff Keppinger is out for a while, so he's got some value.

Cheap Yardwork: Week Eight originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 18 May 2008 22:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Two Start Pitchers: Week Eight

Will Brinson — Sun, 18 May 2008 14:15:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

This is one of those weeks where the top set of two start pitchers is ideal but after you move out of the top 10 or so, well, not so much. But there are some interesting options (as always) for your abuse this week. Most prominently, the four people that I see who are particularly interesting include two old doods and two young guys.

Greg Maddux is probably owned in your league, but if it's reasonably shallow, he could have been dropped during his quest to get 350, which took a while. This week he gets St. Louis and Cincinnati at home, and while both teams can do damage, I could see Mad Dog setting the Reds up.

Mike Mussina has been pretty warm as well, winning his last five starts. Sure, the Yankees are the worst team in the AL East, technically, but Moose has been dealing.

On the other hand, if you don't like old guys, you could always gamble with Luke Hochevar or Manny Parra. Parra is more of a risk because there is a possibility the Brewers could skip him, but he's got nice matchups in Washington and Pittsburgh assuming he gets to roll. The KC youngster, on the other hand, has to go at Boston and at Toronto. So maybe I'm being a little aggressive in saying I like him, but he's got legit K potential and ... yeah. Probably only for H2H leagues.

Pitcher	Team	First Start	Second Start
~~Jake Peavy~~	SD	~~v. STL, Wellemeyer~~	~~v. CIN, Arroyo~~
Cole Hamels	PHI	at WAS, Bergmann	at HOU, Sampson
~~Roy Halladay~~	~~TOR~~	~~v. ANA, Lackey~~	~~v. KC, Meche~~
C.C. Sabathia	CLE	at CHW, Contreras	v. TEX, Mathias
John Lackey	LAA	at TOR, Halladay	at CHW, Contreras

James Shields	TB	at OAK, Blanton	v. BAL, Cabrera
Justin Verlander	DET	v. SEA, Silva	v. MIN, Perkins
Chad Billingsley	LAD	v. CIN, Belisle	v. STL, Wellemeyer
Micah Owings	ARI	at FLA, Hendrickson	at ATL, Glavine
Ted Lilly	CHC	at HOU, Moehler	at PIT, Maholm
Mike Mussina	NYY	v. BAL, Cabrera	v. SEA, Silva
Greg Maddux	SD	v. STL, Piniero	v. CIN, Belisle
Brett Myers	PHI	at WAS, Redding	at HOU, Moehler
Daniel Cabrera	BAL	at NYY, Mussina	at TB, Shields
Joe Blanton	OAK	v. TB, Shields	v. BOS, Lester
Jon Lester	BOS	v. KC, Hochevar	at OAK, Blanton
Luke Hochevar	KC	at BOS, Lester	at TOR, Litsch
Mark Hendrickson	FLA	v. ARI, Owings	v. SF, Misch
Manny Parra	MIL	at PIT, Maholm	at WAS, Redding
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	at LAD, Kuo	at SD, Peavy
Jose Contreras	CHW	v. CLE, Sabathia	v. ANA, Lackey
Tom Glavine	ATL	v. NYM, Maine	v. ARI, Owings
Gil Meche	KC	at BOS, Lester	at TOR, Halladay
Tim Redding	WAS	v. PHI, Myers	v. MIL, Parra
Boof Bonser	MIN	v. TEX, Feldman	at DET, Robertson
Claudio Vargas	NYM	at ATL, Campillo	at COL, De la Rosa
Paul Maholm	PIT	v. MIL, Parra	v. CHC, Lilly
Patrick Mirsch	SF	at COL, De la Rosa	at FLA, Hendrickson
Matt Belisle	CIN	at LA, Billingsley	at SD, Maddux
Glen Perkins	MIN	v. TEX, Mathis	at DET, Verlander
Scott Feldman	TEX	at MIN, Bonser	at CLE, Lee
Brian Moehler	HOU	v, CHC, Lilly	v. PHI, Myers
Chris Sampson	HOU	v. CHC, Dempster	v. PHI, Hamels
Doug Mathis	TEX	at MIN, Perkins	at CLE, Sabathia
Jorge De la Rosa	COL	v. SF, Mirsch	v. NYM, Vargas

Two Start Pitchers: Week Eight originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 18 May 2008 14:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Upton Down -- Not Just Oxymoronic

Will Brinson — Fri, 02 May 2008 00:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Value Machine, Fantasy MLB

Curtis Granderson -- Warm-up time, apparently, is for suckers. So are allergies. Granderson got plugged right into a Tigers lineup that is heating up and picked up the pace himself. Over the last seven days, he's hitting .350/.500/1.050 with three homers, six walks and three RBI. No stolen bases. I know. Sad, right? You'll live.
Justin Upton -- A very, very, very strong buy. Upton came out gangbusters, but obviously it wasn't going to last all season long. And over the last week he's hitting .143/.208/.190. He's not going to get any cheaper than this all season.

Jonathan Sanchez -- As Greebs pointed out, his K/BB ratio is stellar (2.50), his K/9 is ridiculous (10.69) and believable (10.73 in 2007), and all his peripherals check out quite nicely. Add in that he's got what should be a lock on a rotation spot in San Francisco, and you have one of the hotter pitchers in baseball. He only lasted 5.2 innings in his last start and walked five batters, which actually makes him a decent buy. Strikeout machine.
Carlos Quentin -- We already profiled him as one of the biggest adds of the week earlier, but who else can lead off this spot after his last seven days? .435/.552/.826 with two taters, five RBI, three walks and two stolen bases. That's just silly, people. He's going to have a great season, I think, but he's not going to hit 43 homers and drive in 130 runs. So he's a little bit of a sell high right now. But if you're not getting full value, just hold on and ride it out.
Cliff Lee -- Guy just won't get off this freaking list, will he? I'm not sure what you want me to do though; he leads the league in ERA, WHIP, BBI and is second in wins. The problem is that he's pitching over his head right now; he's still going to be a good fantasy option this year, but you have to consider him a sell high if you can get a stud back.
Max Scherzer -- Mr. Brinson, meet Max, the new FanHouse dead horse. He might be the only player in the bigs warmer than Lee right now. Still a pretty strong hype-based sell.

John Smoltz -- He's back on the DL now, which really hampers his value. And the news out of Atlanta is that he's going to be the new closer. People, apparently, are freaking out. (It's what I hear.) But Smoltz was dominant as a starter this year and dominant as a reliever in the past. Go get him now and load up on saves later.
Troy Tulowitzki -- Out until at least the All-Star Break, per his agent. Probably droppable in anything but keeper leagues. Or deep leagues. Or deep keeper leagues.
Ubaldo Jiminez -- Kid still has the stuff to be dominant, but he just couldn't find the strike zone in the two starts where I watched him. And the strike zone is important for pitchers in baseball. He's been a bit unlucky, but for the most part, his K:BB rate (1:05) shows you why he's not pitching well. Avoid for now, but I think he straightens out for the second half.
Ryan Garko -- Doesn't have a hit in his last 21 at-bats, a.k.a. the entire preceding week. Things are so awkward Andy Marte is getting starts. A strong buy low though. Garko has power.

Upton Down -- Not Just Oxymoronic originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 02 May 2008 00:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Your Highly Overrated White Sox Pitcher Is ...

Will Brinson — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:15:00 EST

Filed under: Chicago, White Sox, AL Central, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.

If you Google "Gavin Floyd Fantasy", you'll see plenty of articles mentioning his hot start. Trust me, I just did it. I wanted to make sure he was a sell high candidate. Just in case his 2-0 record, 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP didn't make him a hot enough commodity. I found no less than four articles (just scanning quickly) that recommended picking him up. So the hype is there.

So are the stats, at least on the face of things, as you can see above. But if we dig a little deeper, we'll see that Gavin might be pitching above his head (kind of like the White Sox are playing -- no way!)

First of all, Floyd is experiencing a spike in fly balls allowed this season, up to 53.7%. No big deal; outs are outs. Until you see that he's only allowing 6.9% of those fly balls to become home runs, an unsustainable pace. Like, that's not even my opinion or anything, man. It's just a fact.

Also unsustainable? His strand rate of 85.5% and his BABIP of .136. In other bad news, his K/9 and K/BB are both down (to 4.66 and 1.25, kind of respectively) while his BB/9 is actually up (3.72).

So to recap: basically every peripheral stat that we look for to determine if a pitcher is getting lucky with a really nice start points the wrong way for Mr. Floyd.

Gavin is a very talented pitcher with a wicked curveball. People have been talking about him as a great prospect for several years now. And they're talking again, because he's pitching well. But every single one of the peripherals surrounding his hot start point to him being lucky. And, yes, it is very difficult to peddle that young talent-ridden, upside-mcgriddled prospect that's been teasing fantasy owners for years. But facts is facts.

He's going to come back down to Urf, and you would be immensely better off packaging him with another player to deal for a struggling stud. Players that come to mind are Roy Oswalt or the almost recovered John Lackey and Scott Kazmir. All three would be absolute hijacks, even if you had to include another midlevel player for Roy.

Your Highly Overrated White Sox Pitcher Is ... originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Bust a Move: Splits? We Don't Need No Stinking Splits

Will Brinson — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:10:00 EST

Filed under: NL West, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB

BAM! will take a look at who's getting added and who's getting dropped in fantasy leagues. And whether you should follow suit. It's like a 'Three Up, Three Down' with a way cooler name.

Ervin Santana, SP, LAA (39,427 Adds, yes we're using the exclamation point for these)
Our headliner this week was best known for his inability to pitch on the road last year. His home/road starts are well documented and it was often chalked up to timing that it took to get ready ... or something like that. Anyway, now Mike Scioscia is saying something about his mechanics being off last year. Seeing as how Ervin has been flat out dealing this year, I'm inclined to believe him, and actually thought as much before the start of the season; absolutely grab him if he's available. I'd probably hold off on starting him at Detroit this week though. Just to be safe.

Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI (18,361 Adds)
Well, this shouldn't even be a question, really. Jackson is completely and utterly legit. The reason he's been unowned in the past is that his power has not shown up until now. And it might not stay forever. He's a very, very talented and very patient hitter, which is what we stat peeps like so much. Take, for instance his 53 walks last year. Not a ridiculous number, no. But it is when you consider he only struck out 50 times. A must add in any league where he's available. Make room.

Todd Wellemeyer, SP/RP, STL (6,980 Adds)
Don't be a sucker. Wellemeyer's a career journeyman who is pitching like he's a Cy Young candidate this year. He's K'ing a ridiculous amount of batters, which is a good sign. However, the biggest negative against him (and this, along with BABIP are two things to check if want an idea of whether someone's a fluke or not) is his strand rate, which is sitting at an absurd 90%. That means that 90% of the runners he allows on base do not score. An impossible rate to keep up, even with miracle worker Dave Duncan as his pitching coach.

Frank Thomas, DH, ??? (14, 625 Drops)
The Big Hurt was released outright by the Blue Jays today, so it's not surprising to see fantasy owners dump him, especially considering he was already slumping. But if you need HR's and power in general, I'd go sneak up and grab him after he clears waivers. Thomas is going to get signed and he's going to get hot and hit some taters. Plus, he absolutely mashes the ball when he's got a chip on his shoulder.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU (10,934 Drops)
Quite simply, Wandy went to the Disabled List. You'll get dropped pretty quickly when that happens. He had been beasty at home, and played well overall, but he'll be gone for at least two weeks at this point anyway. Rodriguez is a nice pitcher to own in most leagues, but if you're disabled slot is already full, go ahead and make a move to add someone else.

Braden Looper, SP, STL (9,273 Drops)
Looper got his face beat in by the lowly San Francisco Giants on Sunday, as they jumped out to eight early runs on him. His quick drop numbers are a result of a) his being a two start pitcher and b) the aforementioned paddling by San Fran. I'd cast him aside in almost any league, personally. He started out hot last year, but was the beneficiary of a great H% and eventually it caught up to him. This year, prior to today's start, he had allowed exactly zero percent of fly balls hit to leave the park. Unlikely that would continue anyway.

Bust a Move: Splits? We Don't Need No Stinking Splits originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Two Start Pitchers: Week Four

Will Brinson — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 02:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Woo. There is a glorious abundance of non-horrible two start pitchers this week. Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy highlight the top of the list, including what better be a nationally televised start against one another later in the week.

The top 20 on our list this week are all pretty close to "must-start" status, and then after that, there are even some pretty good options, some of which might be available in your league.

Gil Meche stands out as a guy who is still a good pitcher skills wise, but is just walking too many people. Starts against Cleveland and Toronto aren't locks to turn him around, but he's still a good start.

Manny Parra has "meh" ratios, but he's K'ing over a batter per inning, meaning he's pure gold in any sort of H2H league. A lot of owners are bailing on him early anyway, and he's a legit prospect and worth starting in almost any league this week, particularly with starts against St. Louis (Kyle Lohse) and Florida. Mmmm. Lohse.

Armando Galarraga, a.k.a. the "Little Big Cat", gets the nod twice this week as well, drawing Toronto and Anaheim. I'm not expecting a pair of one hit outings like he pulled against Cleveland, but I think you can pencil in at least one win this week with good ratios.

Pitcher	Team	First Start	Second Start
Brandon Webb	ARI	v. SF, Zito	at SD, Peavy
Jake Peavy	SD	at HOU, Backe	v. ARI, Webb
Felix Hernandez	SEA	v. BAL, Loewen	v. OAK, Blanton
Josh Beckett	BOS	v. ANA, Weaver	at TB, Shields
Carlos Zambrano	CHC	v. NYM, Maine	at WAS, Chico

John Smoltz	ATL	v. WAS, Lannan	at NYM, Figueroa
Brad Penny	LAD	at CIN, Fogg	v. COL, Redman
Roy Oswalt	HOU	v. SD, Germano	at STL, Wainwright
Tim Hudson	ATL	v. WAS, Chico	at NYM, Maine
Justin Verlander	DET	v. TEX, Padilla	v. ANA, Weaver
Adam Wainwright	STL	at MIL, Villanueva	v. HOU, Oswalt
John Maine	NYM	at CHC, Zambrano	v. ATL, Hudson
C.C. Sabathia	CLE	at KC, Meche	v. NYY, Wang
Chien Ming-Wang	NYY	at CHW, Contreras	at CLE, Sabathia
Brett Myers	PHI	at COL, Francis	at PIT, Maholm
James Shields	TB	v. TOR, Jesse Litsch	v. BOS, Beckett
Micah Owings	ARI	v. SF, Correia	at SD, Germano
Shawn Marcum	TOR	v. DET, Galarraga	at KC, Hochevar
Jered Weaver	ANA	at BOS, Beckett	at DET, Verlander
Manny Parra	MIL	v. STL, Lohse	v. FLA, Nolasco
Jeff Francis	COL	v. PHI, Myers	at LAD, Kuo
Edison Volquez	CIN	v. LA, Kuo	at SF, Zito
Buchholz	BOS	v. TEX, Gabbard	at TB, Jackson
Joe Blanton	OAK	v. MIN, Hernandez	at SEA, Hernandez
Armando Galarraga	DET	at TOR, Marcum	v. ANA, Moseley
Gil Meche	KC	v. CLE, Sabathia	v. TOR, Litsch
Livian Hernandez	MIN	at OAK, Blanton	at TEX, Padilla
Ted Lilly	CHC	v. NYM, Figueroa	at WAS, Lannan
Mark Hendrickson	LAD	at PIT, Morris	at MIL, Villanueva
Kyle Lohse	STL	at MIL, Parra	v. HOU, Backe
Barry Zito	SF	at ARI, Webb	v. CIN, Volquez
Carlos Villanueva	MIL	v. STL, Wainwright	v. FLA, Hendrickson
Justin Germano	SD	at HOU, Oswalt	v. ARI, Owings
John Lannan	WAS	at ATL, Smoltz	v. CHC, Lilly
Kyle Kendrick	PHI	at COL, Redman	at PIT, Morris
Nelson Figueroa	NYM	at CHC, Lilly	v. ATL, Smoltz
Jose Contreras	CHW	v. NYY, Wang	v. BAL, Loewen
Brandon Backe	HOU	v. SD, Peavy	at STL, Lohse
Hong-Chih Kuo	LAD	at CIN, Volquez	v. COL, Francis
Adam Loewen	BAL	at SEA, Hernandez	at CHW, Contreras
Kevin Correia	SF	at ARI, Owings	v. CIN, Fogg
Paul Maholm	PIT	v. FLA, Nolasco	v. PHI, Myers
Matt Chico	WAS	at ATL, Hudson	v. CHC, Zambrano
Matt Morris	PIT	v. FLA, Hendrickson	v. PHI, Kendrick

Two Start Pitchers: Week Four originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 20 Apr 2008 02:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Kids Are Alright: Public Enemy Number One

Will Brinson — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Los Angeles, Dodgers, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Kids Are Alright, Fantasy MLB

Kids Are Alright will examine some hot minor league prospects and their potential to be fantasy relevant towards both seasonal and keeper leagues. If you'd like to read more of Will Brinson's minor-league rantings, check out Greensboro Grassbloggers, his Single-A blog. Yes, he has Discovery Channel issues.

I was perusing my the blog/news info on my RSS reader last night and stumbled across an interesting little nugget in an MLB.com Dodger mailbag. Ken Gurnick was answering questions, mostly about Dodger minor leaguers, and one reader wondered why uber-stud and very young prospect Clayton Kershaw was kicking it in AA. This is a reasonable request since he pitched very well in the spring at the major league level and should in theory at least be in AAA.

The way the ball flies out of the Pacific Coast League in general and Triple-A Las Vegas in particular, management seemed to prefer to keep the best pitching prospects in Jacksonville.

[...]Instead, Kershaw will have his innings monitored, while Hong-Chih Kuo, Chan Ho Park and Esteban Loaiza fill the fifth-starter job for a few months. A callup before the All-Star break is expected.

So that's pretty interesting, I tend to think. If you're in a non-long term keeper type league, Kershaw might not be owned yet. And surely he's not owned in any single season leagues. In fact, because he's in Double-A, he's probably not really on the single league radar just quite yet. But that doesn't mean you -- and us, naturally -- shouldn't be monitoring him.

Kershaw is currently tied for second in the Southern League with 12 strikeouts through eight innings. He's allowed four walks and nine hits, so his WHIP is high and the .280-some that batters are hitting off of him early is a little disconcerting. However, if you go back and read between the lines via Joe Torre, Gurnick and even Russell Martin before spring training, you can relax a little, since Kershaw's not down in J-Ville trying to amp up his stats; he's down there working on his changeup and trying to expand his repertoire. (He basically threw curves and fastballs in ST. Vin Scully named his curve "Public Enemy Number One". That in and of itself makes him worth owning in any league.)

My point of all that? Ignore the stats (except the K/9) and grab him if he's available in your keeper. Single season leagues without minor spots probably want to hold off a little while, but this guy is going to be an impact pitcher in the majors this year.

Kids Are Alright: Public Enemy Number One originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Damage Control: Week Two Recap and Return of the Dawg

Will Brinson — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:15:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Injury Report, MLB Damage Control, Fantasy MLB

Damage Control is a list of injuries that you need to be thinking about as you're sitting at work, trying to set your fantasy lineup for week two. I'm categorizing the injuries in three pretty obvious slots below (good, worth the risk, don't bother) for your perusal the rest of the afternoon prior to submitting your lineups.

If there is anyone you have a question about, drop a note in the comments or send the Fantasy FanHouse crew an email. Please note that as injury news regarding the upcoming week is released, this list will be updated.

Safe to Roll
Francisco Rodriguez, CL, LAA -- He pitched Sunday, so you kind of have to start him if you own him.
Carlos Guillen, SS, DET -- Supposedly he's questionable, but I see no reason to bench him. He hits too well and is too valuable in terms of positional eligibility to keep on the bench.
Elijah Dukes, OF, WAS -- How you gonna bench me, dawg? (Seriously, if you are so inclined to own/use him, he should be back, dawg.)

Sweat it Out
Jose Reyes, SS, NYM -- Roll him out there. He's too talented and you don't have a better option. Plus, me and Greebs think he's gonna be good to go.
J.R. Towles, C, HOU -- X-rays on his hand were negative; I'm starting him this week.
B.J. Ryan, CL, TOR -- He's obviously back and it's worth the gamble that the Blue Jays won't get seven straight save opportunities.
Gil Meche, SP, KC -- Unless you're in a shallow league, I think he's actually a nice buy low right now.
Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI -- If he gets any more "medical advice" from Joe Morgan you might be in trouble, but if he can pinch hit I gotta think he gets two of three in the first series.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, SEA -- He's questionable for the early series with a hamstring injury, but he's hitting well enough that I think you start him, unless you have a better option on the bench (like Evan Longoria)/

High Risk - High Reward
Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN -- He started Sunday and had seriously decreased velocity while getting worked by the Royals. I'm thinking you pass on him this week. If he is healthy, you'll get the stats the rest of the year. If he's not, you'll pay dearly. I would personally pass if he is, as reported, missing five mph on his fastball.

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY -- He might not play early, but I think I would start him unless you already have a nice SS option on your bench. (Or can pull something where you move Yunel Escobar to short and plug Aaron Hill in at second, maybe.) If you have a DL slot, I'd probably sit him too.

Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA -- He's apparently doubtful with a hamstring injury and since he probably got taken late, you probably have some sort of other option at second. If you do, go with it.

Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL -- Minors, working his way back but could start once this week; I'd probably hold off and wait one week. Worst case is you burn a roster spot and he doesn't even get to pitch.

Don't Even Think About It
Joba Chamberlain, RP, NYY -- He's out for the first set of games to visit his ailing father; keep him benched.
Tom Glavine, SP, ATL -- Questionable; I don't play games with osteo ... er, hamstring injuries
Rich Harden, SP, OAK -- Disabled List
Matt Garza, SP, TB -- Disabled List
Shane Victorino, OF, PHI -- Disabled List
Mike Lowell, 3B, BOS -- Disabled List
Dave Roberts, OF, SF -- Disabled List
Michael Barrett, C, SD -- Disabled List
Rafeal Soriano, CL, ATL -- Disabled List
Ty Wigginton, 3B, HOU -- Disabled List
Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN -- Disabled List

Damage Control: Week Two Recap and Return of the Dawg originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Always Be Closing: Hells Bells

Will Brinson — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 10:45:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Injury Report, MLB Damage Control, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB

For your fantasy assistance, Always Be Closing will occasionally stop in and take a look at some relief gigs that are worth monitoring, should the current closer falter. Finding saves is a cheap and dirty business. And there are always a few jobs that are murky, especially early in the season. Thinking ahead never hurt anyone.

Is there any particular reason that we think Trevor Hoffman should be absolutely dominant this year? He's the all time saves leader and that's nice, sure, but he is also 40 years old, and age takes its toll on baseball players pretty quickly after they hit the forty spot. Hoffman is currently sitting at 0-2 with four saves. The number of saves, though, is more of a byproduct of the Padres being involved in a ton of close games than it is Hoffman's dominance -- in just under six innings he's struck out six batters, allowed eight hits, walked four and has a 9.53 ERA and a 2.12 WHIP while allowing batters to hit .320 off of him. And I don't care how long you stand in the corner and scream small sample size; Hoffman is old.

On the other hand, it would seem tough for Bud Black and the Fathers to actually take away the closing gig from Hoffman. If he does lose the job, though, it will be Heath Bell (this could be considered ironic because of Hoffman's nickname -- see our title) that likely gets the closing gig. Bell has only two strikeouts so far this season but if you look at his stats for last year, you can get an idea of what to expect -- 6-4 with a 2.02 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 93.2 innings pitched. Bell is a MR stud and a potential closing candidate that should be grabbed in deeper leagues on the chance that Hoffman loses his gig.

If Kerry Wood continues to pitch the way he has, he may prove me wrong, although it's still very early . Personally, I would be selling high as fast as possible. Wood, Mark Prior and Rich Harden are the three most beloved pitchers in all of fantasy baseball, if only because they were seen as so freaking talented; when they actually seem healthy and start pitching well people start frothing over the possibilities. He'll get hurt.

Speaking of hurt, B.J. Ryan is no longer that. He's back to pitching for a still very underrated Toronto Blue Jay team, and he is the closer. Officially and all that. However, it's unlikely that Toronto will run him out there back-to-back-to-back nights or anything, so temper expectations if you're looking for a slew of saves. If he's available though, snatch him up. With 75 plus saves over the two seasons before he was injured, Ryan was one of the truly dominant shutdown closers pre-injury. He's already picked up one save since coming back and should have a pretty good shot at 25+ this season if he stays healthy. On the other end of the spectrum, if Jeremy Accardo has been dropped in your league, grab him and ride out the occasional save opps he'll get while Ryan continues to get healthy. Not a superb option, of course, but saves is saves, son.

If you want the "new BJ", meaning only that he pitches for Baltimore (which I guess makes him the "new Chris Ray", since Ray became Ryan after Ryan ... or something) don't forget about George Sherrill, part of the Erik Bedard trade, who has still not allowed a run. Don't let a bad team scare you off from using a closer. (Although bear in mind that he's going to be a sell high sooner than later just because the Orioles won't keep this pace for him.)

Peter Moylan, as expected by, well, us is closing for the Braves. Or at least he got a save on Friday. People are still acting like Manny Acosta might get some run at shutting down in the ninth but go with Moylan. He's been nothing but dominant since the beginning of last year and hasn't given anyone -- me or Bobby Cox -- reason to steer away from him.

Always Be Closing: Hells Bells originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 14 Apr 2008 10:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Two Start Pitchers: Week 3

Will Brinson — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:45:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Depending on your type of league, two start pitchers are very important. Obviously in any sort of weekly format, they're crucial because they have a better chance to accumulate statistics/points, since they're starting twice. As opposed to, you know, once. We've got the list of the two start pitchers for this week ranked below, and after the jump.

This week's crop of two starters isn't spectacular; only a handful are in the "must start" category. However, there are some very nice sleepers for this week that you should take a look at.

Jonathan Sanchez probably won't win once, much less twice this week, but he is going to strikeout a slew of batters. He gets Arizona and St. Louis, which aren't superb matchups, but he K'd 18 through his first 10 innings as a starter this year ... Dana Eveland, who is a hefty southpaw, has some K power as well and is still flying under some radars, even though he came out hot to start this season. He's got more upside than anything, but he's worth a gamble if you need some starts in a H2H league ... Ervin Santana traditionally stinks on the road, and at Texas is not a nice road spot to be, so be cautious as you start him ... Randy Wolf has quietly been dealing this year -- and pitched well too last season before getting hurt. He won't K at a high rate, but he's nice for ratios and should pick up at least one win ... Greg Smith is a deep, deep sleeper who has doesn't K a ton either but pitched well after a rocky start last week for the A's.

Pitcher	Team	First Start	Second Start
Jeremy Bonderman	DET	v. MIN	at TOR
Aaron Harang	CIN	at CHC	v. MIL
Shaun Marcum	TOR	at BAL	v. DET
Dustin McGowan	TOR	at BAL	v. DET

Randy Johnson	ARI	at SF	v. SD
Andy Pettitte	NYY	at TB	at BAL
Micah Owings	ARI	at SF	v. SD
Zach Greinke	KC	at SEA	at OAK
Jake Westbrook	CLE	v. LAA	at MIN
Kevin Millwood	TEX	v. LAA	at BOS
Edwin Jackson	TB	v. NYY	v. CHW
Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	at SD	at HOU
Ryan Dempster	CHC	v. CIN	v. PIT
Jon Lester	BOS	at CLE	v. TEX
Ervin Santana	LAA	at TEX	v. SEA
Ian Kennedy	NYY	at TB	at BAL
Jair Jurrjens	ATL	at FLA	v. LAD
Jonathan Sanchez	SF	ARI	at STL
Randy Wolf	SD	v. COL	at ARI
Hiroki Kuroda	LAD	v. PIT	at ATL
Scott Baker	MIN	at DET	v. CHW
Mark Buehrle	CHW	v. OAK	at TB
Dana Eveland	OAK	at CHW	v. KC
Greg Smith	OAK	at CHW	v. KC
Tim Wakefield	BOS	at CLE	v. TEX
Scott Olsen	FLA	v. ATL	v. WAS
Nate Robertson	DET	v. MIN	at TOR
Nick Blackburn	MIN	at DET	v. CLE
John Danks	CHW	v. OAK	at TB
Andy Sonnanstine	TB	v. NYY	v. CHW
Mike Pelfrey	NYM	v. WAS	at PHI
Paul Byrd	CLE	v. BOS	at MIN
Braden Looper	STL	v. MIL	v. SF
Miguel Batista	SEA	v. KC	at ANA
Zach Duke	PIT	at LAD	at CHC
Jason Jennings	TEX	v. ANA	at BOS
Dave Bush	MIL	at STL	at CIN
Kyle Kendrick	PHI	v. HOU	v. NYM
Odalis Perez	WAS	at NYM	at FLA
John Bale	KC	at SEA	at OAK
Shawn Chacon	HOU	at PHI	v. COL
Steve Trachsel	BAL	v. TOR	v. NYY

Two Start Pitchers: Week 3 originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Quick Hits: Dave Roberts hits the DL, Giants Fans Rejoice?

Matthew Greber — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:53:00 EST

Filed under: Giants, NL West, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Injuries, San Francisco

San Francisco Giants outfielder Dave Roberts landed on the DL this week, with a torn meniscus and "additional debris" behind his kneecap. I'm no doctor, but that doesn't sound good.

And indeed, Roberts could miss at least a few months with this injury. So, why would Giants fans be happy about this?

It's not any hostility towards Roberts, one of the few talented veterans left on the team, and by all accounts a really good guy. Though he's 35, he still has wheels, swiping 31 bags last year to go with his solid defense.

But there you have it -- he's 35.

Despite the fact that the Giants have won three straight games, no rational San Francisco fan thinks this is anything but a lost season. And well run teams do one thing in those kind of years -- find young talent to help them rebuild. So it was particularly galling for these fans to watch the season begin with youngsters like Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis and Eugenio Velez struggling to find regular playing time.
That all changes with Roberts taken out of the mix -- Lewis and Davis have gotten starts in the last three games (all wins for the Giants) and while they haven't played at an All-Star level, that's really not the point. At the end of the year, manager Bruce Bochy and GM Brian Sabean need to know what they have on their hands to help plan for 2009.

In the meantime, all three of these guys -- Davis, Lewis and especially Velez (who can play both outfield and infield slots) are not only helpful to the Giants, but to fantasy owners as well. They're all fast (Velez might be one of the fastest kids in the league) and stolen bases are a hot commodity.

So, in a season that Giants fans most likely will want to forget, there are a few positives -- though Dave Roberts might not agree.

Quick Hits: Dave Roberts hits the DL, Giants Fans Rejoice? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:53:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Juan Pierre: Slump or Suck?

Matthew Greber — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:22:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Slump or Suck

Before I get into specific player analysis, a brief explanation of what Slump or Suck is supposed to be. (First off, it's a cute name, isn't it? Everybody doesn't just love Raymond, they love alliteration. ) But to clear up any confusion, the purpose of the column is to look at players who are under performing their historical performance and/or the expectations most folks had for them this season. If I think he's going to right the ship, then he's just in a Slump. If, however, I think that what you see is what you're gonna get ... well, then the player Sucks.

Get it? Got it? Good.

Today's post looks at Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre. Why do folks like Juan? (Hint: It's not just because his batting helmet always looks giant on his head, making him look like a toddler.)

Well, dig these numbers:

46-47-65-45-57-58-64

Yep, those are his stolen base numbers from the last seven seasons. That averages out to about 55 bags a season, which is indeed pretty darn good. We all know that Pierre has almost no power (and with 12 career homeruns, it's would be fair to remove the word 'almost' from that phrase), but the bags, runs scored (historically, a safe bet to exceed 90 R/season) and a career .301 batting average make him worth the power gap.

Don't they?

Hm.

Well, here's the thing -- dig these numbers:

156-152-162-162-162-162-162

For those who remember how many games there are in a season, the above numbers are not only obvious, they're impressive -- cause those are how many games Pierre has played in during the same prior seven seasons. That's a huge mark of consistency that few other players not named Ripken could match. During that period, Pierre has averaged 654 at-bats per year.

And therein lies the rub with Pierre this year.

Because the Dodgers outfield is suddenly crowded -- certainly, Andruw Jones is playing every day. That leaves two spots open for Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Pierre. And ... well, that doesn't bode well for Pierre, who only has speed as an advantage over the other two promising youngsters. (OK, and a fat contract that owners probably want to justify.)

That being said, Pierre HAS gotten a decent amount of at bats this year -- and wasted almost all of them. Through Wednesday's's games, he was batting a robust .167,and was caught stealing in his only attempt. This putrid average actually hides the fact that Wednesday's performance (2-for-3) raised his average 100 points from the day before, and he has all of three hits for the season. Clearly, Pierre is in a slump to start the year -- and it says here it isn't worth wondering whether or not he'll break out of it.

It seems likely that Pierre will get a good amount of at-bats this year -- let's be generous and say that manager Joe Torre gets him 400 plate appearances. (For Pierre, they're largely the same thing because Pierre is really crappy at taking a walk for a guy whose main asset is speed on the base paths.) Optimistically, this projects to somewhere around 30-35 stolen bases, and I'd say he'll probably get somewhere close to that, though I'd take the under. The problem? You never know when you're going to get them, and the sacrifices you'll make in almost every other category are simply not worth it. The fact that Kemp and Ethier are both obviously better players than Pierre suggests that Torre (no dummy he) will eventually put Pierre on the bench as the fourth OF, much as he already suggested he would.

Speed is a huge asset in fantasy baseball since it's a statistic that many players can barely contribute to. But without a full slate of at-bats this season, coupled with the pressure to outperform youngsters with a lot more talent, Pierre sucks in terms of fantasy baseball. If he gets traded, or an injury creates a lock for more playing time, his value certainly increases.

But I don't want him anywhere near my fantasy team this season. Juan, I'm sorry ... but you suck.

Juan Pierre: Slump or Suck? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:22:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dirt McGirt Rides Again!

Will Brinson — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Houston, Astros, NL Central, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Injuries, MLB Media Watch

When Lance Berkman left the Astros' game today with a neck injury (spasms, one would assume he's fine, panicky fantasy owners) that meant that off season signing and diiiiirty, hard nosed, old school OBP goat Darin Erstad was going to play first base. Erstad, of course, is not a great baseball player. Anymore than I was a "great" soccer goalie because I used to dive every time a ball got near the 18 yard line.

But regardless, Erstad, who interestingly was a punter in college, came into the game and because he's so freaking gritty and hardnosed, immediately spurred the Astros to a five run seventh inning, based simply on is presence in the lineup. Or at least that's what you'll be reading in some newspapers over the next few days. Erstad is beloved by old school sportswriters, all of whom think he "plays the game the right way."

The injury probably doesn't mean much, especially since the Astros still lost to the Cubs today, but if you enjoy ridiculously funny satirical writing, you should get your Fire Joe Morgan RSS feed rolling -- Erstad's continued presence in the lineup spurs on anti-statistical sports journalism almost as badly as when David Eckstein ~~commits an error~~ takes a ball of his chest. And with Erstad going two for two and the Astros scoring runs in bunches, you can almost guarantee it.

Bonus Fantasy Spin: Berkman is an "OPS hog" (which might be my favorite term in all of fantasy sports) and he's slipped in drafts a bit this year because of the perception that he's aging. That's true, but he's still going to rake. A slow start (sample size alert!) coupled with this neck injury, which reeks of "lingering", make him a nice buy low right now. Please don't add Erstad.

Dirt McGirt Rides Again! originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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