Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson had his left knee scoped and cleaned up last Thursday, and the Texans say he should be back by the beginning of training camp. (great video above of AJ talking about his surgery and other topics, including coach Alex Gibbs). This news is a little unnerving to Texans fans (and should be something that fantasy players should watch) because:
1. When Andre Johnson was out last year, the offense still functioned, but not as efficiently, especially in the red zone.
2. The Texans have had a history of being overly optimistic in talking about players coming back from knee problems. Andre Johnson was initially described as week to week after suffering his knee injury in Week 2 last year, then it was said he would be out 3 to 5 weeks, and he didn't end up coming back until Week 11.
Running back Ahman Green was also described week to week with his knee bone bruise injury last year, until the Texans decided that he really needed to shut it down. In the 2006 training camp, Domanick Davis/Williams was described as the perfect zone blocking back until he ended up never playing a down that year and then later retiring due to a knee bone bruise.
Miguel Tejada went from a fantasy fave to a pariah in one season. No one wanted him where he really should have been drafted. His ADP (average draft position to the fantasy novices out there) proves as much. He was falling into the 60-range in many drafts. I took him as a late-thirties pick in one draft with Derek Jeter still on the board and got destroyed by a few owners.
Just look at the downsides:
- He suffered through full-season career lows in several offensive categories, including HR, RBI, R, and SB. - For the first time in seven seasons he did not play all 162 games (in fact, he only played in 133). - He was named in the Mitchell Report, so apparently he has to stay clean now and performance will be impacted in the power categories. You know, because they can test for HGH so easily. - In a recent development we found out that he's actually 33 years old and not 31.
Of course, Miggy is out to a scorching start ... .370, 4 HRs, 18 RBIs, and 16 Runs in only 21 games. He's never come even close to his current .630 slugging percentage.
In light of all this, people are proclaiming him a sell-high candidate. What do I think?
When Lance Berkman left the Astros' game today with a neck injury (spasms, one would assume he's fine, panicky fantasy owners) that meant that off season signing and diiiiirty, hard nosed, old school OBP goat Darin Erstad was going to play first base. Erstad, of course, is not a great baseball player. Anymore than I was a "great" soccer goalie because I used to dive every time a ball got near the 18 yard line.
But regardless, Erstad, who interestingly was a punter in college, came into the game and because he's so freaking gritty and hardnosed, immediately spurred the Astros to a five run seventh inning, based simply on is presence in the lineup. Or at least that's what you'll be reading in some newspapers over the next few days. Erstad is beloved by old school sportswriters, all of whom think he "plays the game the right way."
The injury probably doesn't mean much, especially since the Astros still lost to the Cubs today, but if you enjoy ridiculously funny satirical writing, you should get your Fire Joe Morgan RSS feed rolling -- Erstad's continued presence in the lineup spurs on anti-statistical sports journalism almost as badly as when David Ecksteincommits an error takes a ball of his chest. And with Erstad going two for two and the Astros scoring runs in bunches, you can almost guarantee it.
Bonus Fantasy Spin: Berkman is an "OPS hog" (which might be my favorite term in all of fantasy sports) and he's slipped in drafts a bit this year because of the perception that he's aging. That's true, but he's still going to rake. A slow start (sample size alert!) coupled with this neck injury, which reeks of "lingering", make him a nice buy low right now. Please don't add Erstad.
In an unsurprising move, Ahman Green was placed on IR today after it became apparent that the knee injury he suffered in Week 1 couldn't take game day activity. Undrafted Notre Dame running back, Darius Walker will be put on the active roster for the game against the Bucs this Sunday. Ron Dayne is expected to be the starter, though his time may be limited due to a minor ankle injury he suffered last week.
Green suffered what was called a "knee bone bruise" in the game against Kansas City. He tried to come back from that injury, but had to leave games due to swelling and pain. As I discussed last September, a diagnosis of a bruised knee bone gave Texans fans no comfort because the description of the injury sounded very similar to the same thing that ended Texans running back Domanick (Davis) Williams' career.
You hear fans talk about a bruised knee bone like it is no big deal, as if it is bumping it into a coffee table. However, as I understand it, the knee bone is a place with not a lot of blood flow, and can be hard to heal. If you have more of a medical interest in in knee bone bruises, check out this link. If you would like a first hand account of how knee bone bruises might slow down a sports blogfather, check out what Jamie Mottram has to say about it, including an x-ray of knee badness.
Domanick, Ahman, and Jamie: such promising sporting lives interrupted by what is a wussy sounding diagnosis, but actually is hard for doctors to treat, estimate healing time and determine its effect on future use.
This weekend against the Bucs, Texans starting quarterback Matt Schaub isn't expected to play due to a dislocated non-throwing arm, and will be replaced by backup Sage Rosenfels. There's a good video of Rosenfels talking about the start here. His backup is Shane Boyd, a midseason pickup who has never played a game with the Texans.
Rosenfels is a smart quarterback his teammates like and trust, and can sling the ball. He also tends to throw interceptions at inopportune times. Some fantasy players might be tempted to pick him up for the end of the season because the Texans have been able to pass the ball with Rosenfels, but the Texans are facing some tough pass defenses in the weeks ahead.
When Texans #1 receiver Andre Johnson strained his knee in Week 2 against the Panthers, estimates on his return were as long as five weeks. The Houston Chronicle is reporting today that it is likely that Johnson won't be back until the November 18th home game against New Orleans.
Uh-oh.
The Texans have a history of providing overly positive assessments to fans of when players will come back. See e.g. Tony Boselli, Domanick Davis/Williams, Charles Spencer. Hopefully, Johnson's situation is not in that league of unhappy results. For an additional information about Johnson's injury, please check out my September discussion.
The Texans have been able to throw the ball in Johnson's absence even without a functioning running game, but his presence is particularly missed in the red zone. If they can't figure out how to improve red zone scoring in Johnson's absence, field goal kicker Kris Brown is going to have a lot more opportunities like he did against the Dolphins.
One of the reasons why I started blogging about the Texans was that it was difficult to find information about the team, so I figured as long as I was looking for it, I'd share. What is some information that the average NFL fan might not know about the Texans?
Keith from HoustonProFootball: The Texans are so under the radar to the average fan (and even many of the ardent ones), that there is probably quite a bit they don't know since Houston is rarely selected for a national broadcast, even on Sunday afternoons. The average fan still thinks of this as the expansion team or even the 2-win team from 2005, but the reality in the NFL is that even the bad teams can turn around pretty quickly if they have the right mix of coaching and talent.
I think the Bengals are an okay example of that, where they endured much suckitude for a lengthy period of time, but even the Bengals, with the right coach and a new group of players, showed improvement rather quickly. Fans shouldn't let the Texans sneak up on them if they think this team is a lock for another top-10 draft pick
AJ from HoustonTexans.com: This preseason, the Texans were #1 in the NFL in scoring (26.0 ppg) and #11 in rushing (121.2 ypg).
The Texans are 6-4 all time against Jacksonville, and 2-0 all time against the Dolphins and Raiders.
It's obvious that most national writers opining about the Texans have never seen much of their play. For example, this SI.com analysis of the AFC South's training camp challenges is garbage not terribly accurate. Hey, readers, here's a minor challenge that you can win zero dollars and up to a million imaginary pride points for. In the comments, mention all the mistakes you can find in the SI.com discussion of the Texans defensive line. Sorta like one of those what's wrong with this picture thingies you are supposed to stare at until you figure out the answer. (Maybe you don't want look at that last link at work.)
It's rare to read spot-on correct information about the team, so since I found some of that, I thought I'd share because I'm friendly that way. Alan Burge aka AJ writes a blog hosted at the HoustonTexans.com website. He's a huge fan of the team, has watched every snap, but doesn't write with kool-aid stained ink. In his most recent blog post, he does a positional analysis of each part of the Texans. He performs a rough accounting of which 53 players will make the team and the strengths and weaknesses at various positions. Read it. Read it now, and report back.
I'm always amazed at those people who are absolutely certain in their opinions about how players will do in the upcoming season. For me, it's hard, especially in a sport like football where a player's performance is interdependent on his teammates, coaching and scheme. Anyhow, this entry is devote to talking about Texans running back, Ahman Green, and the debate inside my head on how he might do this year.
My Shiny, Happy Thoughts on Green:
The Texans running back situation stunk last year. Domanick Williams (previously Davis) ended up on the shelf with injuries right before the season started. Rookies started the season and by the time the coaches figured out that things weren't working, they ended up playing Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado--two players who hadn't been in camp. Dayne ended up being the leading rusher for the Texans.
Since the Texans wanted to improve their running back group, they ended up signing Ahman Green in the offseason. Reports from camp say that Green appears to be in terrific shape and has looked great, including this report from Lance Zierlein's blog that says Green looks "as good as he did back in 2001 from a physical standpoint." Green does all the things that Gary Kubiak wants from his running back: quick decision making, precise route running and blocking.
In the offseason, people either really like the trade for Schaub or have the opinion that with the same Texans offensive line, Schaub will get killed. I'm not sure Schaub is going to be a breakout star, but I do believe that given the offseason options in free agency and the draft, he was the best option for the Texans. The Texans passed up the fabu 2006 QB draft class, and weren't going to compound that error by keeping David Carr when he wasn't doing the things that Gary Kubiak expected him to do.
Miguel Tejada
When 
In an unsurprising move, 
The Texans lead the league with players on IR with 16
When Texans #1 receiver 
Status Check
It's obvious that most national writers opining about the Texans have never seen much of their play. For example, this SI.com analysis of the 
I'm always amazed at those people who are absolutely certain in their opinions about how players will do in the upcoming season. For me, it's hard, especially in a sport like football where a player's performance is interdependent on his teammates, coaching and scheme. Anyhow, this entry is devote to talking about Texans running back, Ahman Green, and the debate inside my head on how he might do this year.
