Fantasy Mets

Last night a deal passed through in one of my leagues: Lance Berkman for Johan Santana. At first glance, I thought I loved the sell-high on Berk and buy-quasi-low on Johan. Then I started thinking more about what we've seen from Johan in the past season and a half or so as compared to what he was before that. In case you didn't know, here it is. He started to absolutely deal during an outing on August 3rd of 2003. From that point until the end of 2006 (111 starts), his numbers were sick:

63-19, 2.75 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.94 K/BB, and 9.7 K/9. He allowed 76 HR in 756 1/3 innings.

Every inch of those stats is incredibly elite. Keeping that up over the long haul would be easy hall-of-fame status and in the discussion for the best pitcher of all-time. What we've seen since then in 46 starts (hardly a small sample):

22-17, 3.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.26 K/BB, and 9.1 K/9. He has allowed 45 HR in the past 306 2/3 innings.

So his winning percentage has plummeted, ERA has risen a half run, and he's giving up more hits, home runs, and runs.

What does that tell us?

In with the old and out with the new. And all that business. Pedro Martinez, making a rehab start in Single A, squared off against number one draft pick and uber-prospect David Price today, and Price got the better of him. Pedro went six innings, giving up four hits and two earned while striking out six. Price, meanwhile, gave up only two hits over six shutout innings while striking out nine.
Pedro was impressed.

'He's amazing, that kid. He's amazing,' Martinez said. 'That kid is very mature for his time in [the pros], and very talented.

'Oh my God.'

Pedro went on to say that Price was "superior" to the Cy Young winner at that age, which isn't that surprising when you compare their development throughout their careers, talent aside.

But Petey is still going to beat him to the majors, at least this year. Martinez could be back as soon as next week (this being his final rehab outing) while Price won't be in the bigs until later this year, at the earliest.

Fantasy Spin: Pedro is probably a free agent in your league and even at his age, pitching for the [would-be] contending Mets makes him a viable starter. If he's unowned, make a move. Price, for seasonal leagues, shouldn't be owned right now, unless you have a really deep bench. But keeper leagues should be all over him already, in anticipation of a call up should the Rays stay in the hunt.

What does it mean in the fantasy world?

The move instantly makes Santana a top-five, if not top-three selection (especially if you're having your fantasy draft on the east coast). A little too high to take a pitcher for my tastes. Picture the hype when Pedro Martinez first came to New York, then multiply that by a bazillion. Santana will own National League hitters, and he has the defense to back him up when he's not quite "on like Johan". The Mets are solid with Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo up the middle -- the latter of which Santana is familiar playing with -- and strong at center with Carlos Beltran. And moving to pitcher-friendly Shea will be a joy for him as well.

OK, so he might not be at A-Rod status of hotness, nor David Wright either, but Rich Aurilia is doing pretty well in his own right. Check this out: Aurilia is enjoying a 12-game hitting streak, during which he's batted .388. In the last five games he has nine hits and six RBI, but most of all, he's been clutch. On Thursday he delivered a two out two-run tiebreaking double in the sixth inning which helped spark the Giants 6-2 win. On Wednesday, Aurilia delivered the game-winning RBI single in the bottom of the 12th to give the Giants a 6-5 extra-innings win over the Cardinals. In his second stint with the Giants, Aurilia is concerned with more than just himself:

"It's a good feeling. It's nice to be able to come back home and contribute like this ... Now, if we can just get on a roll and win a few more in a row and get back to .500, that'd be great."

The Giants have rallied from a 1-6 start to win five of their last seven games, thanks in large part to Aurilia. It's a positive sign for Giants fans who starting getting seriously concerned early in the year, writing the team off.

Previously at FanHouse:
We May As Well Just Hand A-Rod the AL MVP Trophy
Dodgers Own the Giants Whose Season Is Over

David Wright gave us the opportunity to choose his at-bat music. Well if you voted and your song is chosen, you had better make sure you get to the park earlier than normal if you normally arrive late (and if you do, what are you, a Dodger fan?) ... because Wright may be moved up in the batting order.

While he acknowledged that he isn't a "prototypical" No. 2 hitter, David Wright believes the Mets' high-octane offense won't miss a beat if he's assigned the role by manager Willie Randolph.

Wright filled the No. 5 slot in the Mets' lineup in 2006, but with several Mets mired in early spring training slumps, he's found himself penciled into the top of the pregame lineup card with greater consistency.

"We have an American League lineup in the National League," Wright said after the team's 8-3 loss to the Braves yesterday. "Whether I hit (No. 2) or (No. 5), or if I hit (No. 6) I'm going to go up there with the same approach."

Of course the downside is that you move Paul Lo Duca out of the two spot, where he rarely struck out and did a good job moving Jose Reyes to third base to set up the heart of the order. If you move Lo Duca down, you waste his strengths while creating a top heavy batting order. And Wright may say his approach isn't going to change, but if Jose Reyes is on base, it has to change at least a little bit.

The Mets set franchise records in most offensive categories in '06. Why fix what ain't broke?

Previously on The Fanhouse:
David Wright needs your musical expertise

Rickey Henderson was brought to Mets camp to be a special instructor. He has instructed Jose Reyes of the nuances of stealing bases. He wants to do the same with Carlos Beltran. Beltran, however, isn't interested in learning the art of the steal.

"I want to steal more bases," he said. "But it's not about me trying to go out there and steal every single base. It's about when I have the opportunity to help the team, I would like to steal more. It's as basic as that."

And then...

"The thing is I don't want to go out there and steal bases just because I want to steal 50 bases and get thrown out 30 times," Beltran said.

I have to admit I'm torn. I want Carlos Beltran to be prudent and put the Mets in the best position to win. I don't want him to take at bats away from Carlos Delgado. Beltran has an 87.6% success rate when it comes to steal bases, so it seems that he knows what he's doing.

But I drafted Beltran in my fantasy league. So would it be selfish to want Beltran to swipe 50 while getting thrown out 30 times? If wanting steals is wrong, do I want to be right?

Selfishness brings bad karma. Bad karma brings torn hamstrings. And torn hamstrings don't help anyone. So keep Rickey away from Carlos, please?