Fantasy Minnesota Vikings

The Fantasy FanHouse team will occasionally debate pre-draft topics for your perusement and amusement. Any excuse for a Roundtable really. Today's topic: what to do with that first overall pick, should it fall your way.

Will Brinson: There are only two choices with the first overall pick -- LaDanian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson -- unless you're in Chad Johnson's fantasy league. Then you draft Ocho Cinco first, hold him out from fantasy training camp and trade him to the real 85 for his first five picks. But since that horrible joke won't become reality isn't happening, you gotta pick LT or AP. So who ya got?

Matthew Greber: Well, it's not like the #1 pick always works out but this year that pick has the most uncertainty in a long time. But if I do get that pick, I'm probably taking LDT each and every time. (Note...not LT, that's a taken nickname, folks. Either LT2 or LDT.)

Matt Snyder: Has to be LDT. His rushing totals have gone 1236, 1683, 1645, 1335, 1462, 1815, and 1474 with an average of 16 TDs per season. Even if you think Peterson can exceed those numbers (which I don't), he won't garner the additional points LDT will through the air -- both as a receiver and a passer.

Hear that? It's the pitter-patter of fantasy football season approaching. Fantasy FanHouse is here to get you ready by previewing every team from a fantasy perspective.

Meet The ...

Best running team in football. If anything they'll be better at running the ball this season. The Vikes have committed to a better balance between passing and running, which will (hopefully) prevent teams from stacking the box against the run -- opening more running lanes. Tarvaris Jackson has experience under his belt and is unchallenged as the starter, not to mention they signed Bernard Berrian in the off-season to give him a legitimate NFL wideout. Adrian Peterson has a year of NFL experience, and Chester Taylor is an able-bodied complement to Peterson. Expect the same, if not better, numbers as last season from the ground game.

The Breakout

He's not going to be a pro-bowler or even a fantasy starter, but "breakout" is defined as someone whose eventual value exceeds the value he held on draft day. Tarvaris Jackson is going to be avoided in nearly all drafts, or possibly taken as a third string fantasy QB with the hopes of upside. By the end of the year, he'll pick his spots well enough to be worthy of a backup fantasy QB for bye-week replacement or injury replacement purposes. He'll get rushing yards -- which is such a huge bonus for QBs -- avoid the interception quite well, and throw for 150-200 yards a week with a passing TD per game.

I just got a new ride, and it has Sirius Satellite Radio in it. Sweet. I find that I listen a lot to Chill, Raw Dog Comedy and NFL Radio, not necessarily in that order. Anyway, yesterday on his NFL Radio program, Pat Kirwan mentioned his NFL.com article about how there could be 10 quarterbacks in the NFL this year who are starting the season for the first time as a 16 game starter. I hadn't realized it could be that many. He stresses that expectations shouldn't be too high for these quarterbacks because their learning curve is steep.

Stat stud, Doug Drinen at the always interesting Pro-Football-Reference.com blog, wrote an entry a while back about the difficulties of teams with inexperienced players at the offensive skill positions. He took a historical look at the greenest teams at quarterback, running back, tight end and 2 wide receivers, and then compared that to their final season records. Though there were a few success stories in the bunch, the data shows that the least experienced teams at the skill positions usually stunk. But since all quarterbacks have to start somewhere, a number of those quarterbacks helming those teams eventually went to the Super Bowl.

So, I have a few questions for you. Are you concerned about the inexperience of your team's quarterback and/or the skill players around him? And, what other Sirius radio programs do I really need to check out?

Take a look at the Minnesota Vikings' depth chart. We still don't know for sure who all the starters will be, but the starters at the skill positions could be:

• Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, who has 81 career passing attempts
• Running back Adrian Peterson, who has zero career carries
• Wide receiver Sidney Rice, who has zero career catches
• Wide receiver Billy McMullen, who has 45 career catches
• Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, who has 35 career catches

Doug Drinen writes at the Pro Football Reference blog that a lineup like that -- or even a lineup that substitutes more experienced players like wide receivers Troy Williamson or Bobby Wade and tight end Jimmy Kleinsasser -- would be among the least experienced in history. In terms of the experience of its skill players, this year's Vikings may be the most inexperienced non-expansion team since the 1996 Rams.

Of course, experience doesn't necessarily make a team good, and inexperience doesn't necessarily make a team bad. But Drinen writes that there isn't much historical precedent for a team with so little experience doing much of anything on offense. It could be a long rebuilding year for the Vikings.

They're two of the more interesting quarterbacks to watch this year. I don't think anyone other than Brad Johnson envisioned Brad Johnson still being an NFL starter at this point in his career, and Charlie Frye probably wasn't expecting to be starting this early in his career, either. But they're both expected to be difference-makers for their teams.

I'm going with Johnson, but it's not because I'm down on Frye at all. I thought he showed some really good things at the end of last year, and I expect him to build on that. But two factors tilt this firmly to the side of Johnson: experience, and opponents.

Charlie Frye plays in the AFC North, where the only bad defense in the division is the one he faces in practice. The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals are all going to get after the quarterback ferociously, meaning the young Frye is going to have to make so many quick reads, and adjust to so many different things, all while Joey Porter is trying to literally murder him. He won't be terrible, but asking him to put up great numbers in that situation is probably a bit too much to ask for.

Johnson, meanwhile, would be fine in the same situation. Not that he needs to be, because his division, with the exception of the Bears, is populated with much less-frightening defenses. Johnson's about as mobile as Jack Palance, but he can certainly read a defense and make the right decision with the ball. If nothing else, he'll keep his interceptions down.

I think the Vikings will be better than people think, and they're relying Brad Johnson's going to be a big part of that. He may not be the big-play guy you want to see, but he's not going to kill you, either. It's not the highest of praise, but how many teams have quarterbacks that they can be absolutely sure won't lose a game for them? I like Charlie Frye, and I think he'll be a good quarterback, but this year, the Browns can't make the same claim.