Fantasy Mlb Fantasy Felony

It's almost Thanksgiving, which can mean only one thing -- the Detroit Lions are officially eliminated from the playoffs. OK, seriously what it normally means is that the trade deadline is fast approaching in your fantasy football league. For many this is a last-gasp effort to make a playoff run, but for others it's a chance to improve their team for the home stretch. Yup, it's an opportunity to scout the playoff schedules and secure the perfect asset that will allow for your personal champagne shower in late December.

So, it's basically decision week for most. Do you stand pat and go with what you have or do you take a risk? For me, I'll be honest - I'm sitting pretty at 8-2 and (not to brag) love my chances of bringing home the "pride" trophy and a little straight cash homie. I won't bore you with my full roster, because hearing about somebody else's fantasy team is like hearing about somebody else's kid... unless it's your own, you just don't care. That said, there is one glaring weakness or hole I'd like to fill, and that's replacing Marion Barber.

Say what? Yes, I've enjoyed the experience and have ridden the horse as far as it can go - it's time for me and you both to deal Marion Barber. I know, I know - I'm so negative when it comes to my fantasy perspective. It's tough love, but if a guy can't pass the test, he's gots-ta-go. And that means you Marion the Barbarian. Hold up and let me explain.

We've already discussed the implications of the C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden trades here on Fantasy FanHouse, but what about the other names that recently found new homes?

Joe Blanton
Much like Harden, Blanton's going to go through a whole new experience when he pitches in front of a boisterous packed house tonight. He's going to get a nice trial by fire as the Phillies face the Mets and Braves this week -- Blanton's a two-start pitcher. Look for the change of league to ignite Blanton. He was too good a pitcher to keep scuffling along with such a poor record (5-12) and ERA (4.96) anyway. Now is the time to trade for him, because his stock will never be lower. The ERA was a full run lower last season, and he had a nice 140/40 K/BB. This season he's partially having issues because of his control. He's only sporting a 62/35 K/BB in a little more than half the innings as last year. As I said, the change of league will help ... facing a whole batch of new hitters is always advantageous to the pitcher. His turn-around starts tonight.

On Sunday night, for the first time in the history (which spans multiple decades, and I'm only 26) of my fantasy playing, I traded for Rich Harden. I feel like I got a good deal, and he came with Felix Hernandez, but it occurred to me yesterday morning that, "Holy Crap. I just traded for a season-long red cross."

Yes, I am slow on the uptake.

The point though, is not to tell you to trade for him. Quite the opposite, in fact. The point is, that if I, as a skeptic of Harden the fantasy player, am willing to allow him to become part of a deal, then he has sufficiently reached some sort of level where there is a chance the general public thinks he might stay healthy.

And right now, you can get some good value back for him too.

For instance, Aaron Harang has stunk the joint up so far this year. It's pretty likely his owner wants to move him. Would a straight up Harang for Harden trade work? Most certainly; you could even possibly (likely?) persuade the other owner into sweetening the deal because of Harang's struggles. Harang is rocking a high BABIP and a heavier reliance on his slider. Additionally, he's allowing tons of line drives and far fewer ground balls as of right now.

The principle of this trade remains simple: regardless of how much Harang turns around his season, it will be better than the time that Harden spends on the disabled list.

Last night a deal passed through in one of my leagues: Lance Berkman for Johan Santana. At first glance, I thought I loved the sell-high on Berk and buy-quasi-low on Johan. Then I started thinking more about what we've seen from Johan in the past season and a half or so as compared to what he was before that. In case you didn't know, here it is. He started to absolutely deal during an outing on August 3rd of 2003. From that point until the end of 2006 (111 starts), his numbers were sick:

63-19, 2.75 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.94 K/BB, and 9.7 K/9. He allowed 76 HR in 756 1/3 innings.

Every inch of those stats is incredibly elite. Keeping that up over the long haul would be easy hall-of-fame status and in the discussion for the best pitcher of all-time. What we've seen since then in 46 starts (hardly a small sample):

22-17, 3.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.26 K/BB, and 9.1 K/9. He has allowed 45 HR in the past 306 2/3 innings.

So his winning percentage has plummeted, ERA has risen a half run, and he's giving up more hits, home runs, and runs.

What does that tell us?

Remember Chris Shelton's beastly start in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are having a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

Starting pitching has been relatively topsy-turvy this season. You've got C.C., Bedard, and Verlander collectively sucking. On the other hand, Saunders is tied for the AL lead in wins and Wellemeyer is 7-1. Etc. Etc. Etc.

This is weird, but it's my job to help you sort it out and plan for the rest of the '08 campaign. Let's start with the dude at the right who is throwing a ball at you.

Joe Saunders -- He's 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Those numbers alone say "elite starter." He also plays for the team that wins games, so he should keep piling up wins. As for the other numbers, I'd be worried. In 82 innings he's only struck out 39 guys. If you aren't a power pitcher, you can survive on getting the ground ball, it's just that he's not. 1.21 grounders per flies, teamed with his unGodly .238 allowed BABIP. This means that he's received an inexplicable amount of luck in regards to the type of contact being made.

Verdict: Shelton. Big time Shelton.

More after the jump ...

Rockies slugger and reigning MVP runner-up Matt Holliday is expected to come off the DL next week. Prior to his ailment, Holliday was doing his usual thing (.321-8-26 in 46 games with eight steals), though his power output was down a bit. Now he's coming off an injury and plays for the worst team in the majors.

So you are in for 500 words on why the first-rounder is a "buy-low" candidate on the fantasy trade market, right?

Actually, no. Not at all. I'm going to ask you to gamble. I'm going to suggest you trade Holliday -- assuming you can get full value for him. It's a tricky situation on several fronts. First of all, don't float one of those "Matt Holliday is on the block" messages to your entire league. People will think you're up to something fishy. Go through the rosters of your league-mates and target studs whom you'd like to plug into Holliday's slot. Lance Berkman, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Josh Hamilton, etc. Start inquiring. You should actually be able to land an additional player with some of those dudes for Holliday.

So that's how to pull the heist. Now here's why ...

Anyone seen Randy Johnson partying like it's 1999 recently? In his last three outings we've seen 20 innings of retro Unit. 24 strikeouts compared to only three walks and earned runs each. The ratio numbers for those outings look especially tasty ... 1.00 WHIP, 1.35 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 8 K/BB. Those numbers are silly, and only one of the starts was against a poor offense (Giants -- the other two were against the Braves and Tigers).

He's taken no decisions in the latest two outings, so you may not have noticed, but he still sports a nice 4-1 overall record to go with his plummeting 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The 56/14 K/BB in only 51 2/3 innings overall is exceptional. So with the trends pointing to a resurgence, do we expect the 44 year-old with two back surgeries in the past two years to hold up?

I don't, not like this. He's old, and there are a ton of pitches that have come out of that arm. You could argue from the above figures that he's just finding his rhythm since returning from back surgery and that the back had bothered him in his departure from greatness from 2005-2007 ('06 was the first time since 1989 he had a worse ERA than the league average).

I recommend you do so to a trading partner if you own him. He recently eclipsed the 3900 inning mark, and there can't be many more left in that tank ... no matter how big a unit he is.

Not sure who to deal for? Check out Brinson's value machine for ideas, or hit us up with questions via email.

Brad Penny started the All-Star game for the National League last season, and he took a 10-1 record and 2.39 ERA with him. In the second half of the season he wasn't bad by any stretch (6-3, 3.84), but his numbers did take a hit. Still, coming into 2008 it was hard to be down on a 30 year-old coming off a 16-4 season that sported a 3.03 ERA.

This year he entered his May 7th start against the Mets with a 5-2 record and a 3.19 ERA. That's not fantasy ace material, but it's certainly in the must-start range.

Since then, though, the numbers have been staggering ... in a bad way.

In 16 2/3 innings, Penny has allowed 28 hits and 20 earned runs. These three combined pathetic displays jacked his ERA up to 5.34. His WHIP is currently an subpar 1.56. He's only struck out 30 while walking 22 in his 59 innings of work thus far in '08.

So it's buy-low time, right?

Well, that depends. Are you expecting the first half of '07 Brad Penny?

We always talk in fantasy baseball about upside, potential, selling high, blahblahblah. Even more time is spent discussing these things than the hours we spend each preseason yapping about how Daniel Cabrera is finally going to turn things around and become a fantasy ace and freakish strikeout monster.

Until this season, when, after Leo Mazzone's inability to help D-Cab cut down on his walks, people were relatively quiet. We gave up. And why not? There was no need to burn an early-mid round pick on a guy that would shatter your WHIP and consistently befuddle your lineup with his, um, inconsistency.

But is this season any different? And am I required by fantasy writer law to address him this week? "Yes, kind of" on both counts.

Note that his BB/9 of 3.21 is substantially down from his previous best season in the majors (4.76 last year), but his K/9 has also seen a dip, although not as steep, down to it's lowest point in his career at 5.48. This means he is pitching much more to contact than he has in the past.

And this has led to, in conjunction with a 57.5 GB%, Cabs averaging over 6 and two thirds innings pitched per start.

On the positive side of things, there is the obvious decrease in walks, as well as increase in HR/FB, up to 14.5%. That is "positive", only because it should, in theory, come back down. But if D-Cab is pitching to more contact, as he appears to be, we really have to readjust what we think we know about how many yardballs he's going to give up.

What? You wanna argue with me?

Are you going to tell me about how he struck out 208 batters when he was only 24, or that he followed that up with 189 in 198 innings the following season? Or that he's K'd 50 this season in less than 60 innings? I don't care about that. He sucks.

Are you going to inform me that he's only 27 years old and he may be suffering through a rough start with his location because he's still adjusting back to being a starter after being thrust into the closer's role early last season? Oh c'mon.

I suppose next you'll tell me that he won 25 games combined in '05-'06, to which I'd reply that he's only on pace for about seven this year. Like I said ... SUCKS!

Please don't tell me that his WHIP was between 1.20 and 1.30 each of the last three years, because this year it is 1.60. As Chuck Barkley would say, that's turrible.

Those sub-4.00 ERAs his last two years as a full-time starter that you want to bring up? A thing of the past. He's sitting with a 5.76 currently. Wow, he blows.

I don't want to hear that his allowed .335 BABIP is way too high and statistically should start coming down, because it doesn't help my cause. He's just a bad pitcher.

Small sample size? Puh-leez. It's late May.

/the idiot in your fantasy league that has given up on Brett Myers ...