Fantasy FanHouse

Deadline Deals: Time to Move Marion Barber

Sean Lalley — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:02:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy Football

It's almost Thanksgiving, which can mean only one thing -- the Detroit Lions are officially eliminated from the playoffs. OK, seriously what it normally means is that the trade deadline is fast approaching in your fantasy football league. For many this is a last-gasp effort to make a playoff run, but for others it's a chance to improve their team for the home stretch. Yup, it's an opportunity to scout the playoff schedules and secure the perfect asset that will allow for your personal champagne shower in late December.

So, it's basically decision week for most. Do you stand pat and go with what you have or do you take a risk? For me, I'll be honest - I'm sitting pretty at 8-2 and (not to brag) love my chances of bringing home the "pride" trophy and a little straight cash homie. I won't bore you with my full roster, because hearing about somebody else's fantasy team is like hearing about somebody else's kid... unless it's your own, you just don't care. That said, there is one glaring weakness or hole I'd like to fill, and that's replacing Marion Barber.

Say what? Yes, I've enjoyed the experience and have ridden the horse as far as it can go - it's time for me and you both to deal Marion Barber. I know, I know - I'm so negative when it comes to my fantasy perspective. It's tough love, but if a guy can't pass the test, he's gots-ta-go. And that means you Marion the Barbarian. Hold up and let me explain.

The Schedule: The discussion could very well start and stop right here. Have you seen the schedule for the Cowboys? It's brutal. After the Washington game this weekend, he's got a few cream puff matchups with the 49ers and Seahawks at home. However, if you look at the weeks that matter the most (Weeks 14-16) he's got @PIT, NYG and BAL. How else can I put this... he's screwed, and you're screwed if you're relying on him to rally home a Fantasy title. I was stoked to draft Barber, but certainly missed this schedule glitch. Ouch!

Felix Jones: Did you forget about him? Oh well, let me remind you me he's almost healthy and WILL play a key role down the stretch for the Cowboys. If you aren't convinced that he'll dig into Barber's carries... you're only kidding yourself. He's the epitome of the term "game-changing playmaker." Before the injury he was already digging into Barber's touches and averaging nearly nine yards per carry. Is it no strange coincidence that the Cowboys' offensive struggles surfaced just about the same time that not only Romo, but also Felix Jones went down. Hmm, just a thought.

The Cowboys' Internal Combustion: Yes, there's also the whole impending collapse that surrounds the Dallas Cowboys. In case we forgot, America's Team is facing an uphill battle just to make the playoffs and they are bordering on an internal implosion in the locker room. Oh let's not forget poor Tony Romo has a lot of mouths to feed when he returns to the field. That simply can't be a good thing for the RB you expect to be the feature of your fantasy team. Did you just hear T.O bickering about the offense going through him? I must be hearing things.

The Grind: Yes, the wear and tear is the lamest excuse in the book. However, you simply can't ignore the violent running style and pain that Barber dishes out, as well as receives. Fact is, he's never toted the rock to this magnitude for an entire season. Barber was fresh down the stretch due to a much greater timeshare with Julius Jones. However, the Cowboys have leaned heavily on Barber and he's on pace to shatter his previous highs in carries and touches. Scary? Maybe so... you never know when the next hit is gonna put Barber on the shelf. With all the bad luck the Cowboys have had with injuries this year, you can't ever be sure.

Well, now that I've laid out the negatives with Barber moving forward... who do you target? OK, let's be realistic. When I preach from such a pessimistic view point, it's hardly suggesting that you just take what you can get for a guy like Barber. I'm poking around my league and putting the feeler out there. A few guys I've got a keen interest in would be Frank Gore, Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown... all of whom have solid fantasy playoff schedules.

I'm playing for the future and I just don't see Barber being a big part of that future. Like I always say in fantasy football - if you aren't one step ahead, you will get left behind. Yup, bad, very bad cliché. Do as you choose, but my best guess is that Barber is gonna go for bust during the money weeks. If you're gonna stick it out with him - best of luck.

Deadline Deals: Time to Move Marion Barber originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:02:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Focus: Players on the Move

Matt Snyder — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:55:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy Baseball

We've already discussed the implications of the C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden trades here on Fantasy FanHouse, but what about the other names that recently found new homes?

Joe Blanton
Much like Harden, Blanton's going to go through a whole new experience when he pitches in front of a boisterous packed house tonight. He's going to get a nice trial by fire as the Phillies face the Mets and Braves this week -- Blanton's a two-start pitcher. Look for the change of league to ignite Blanton. He was too good a pitcher to keep scuffling along with such a poor record (5-12) and ERA (4.96) anyway. Now is the time to trade for him, because his stock will never be lower. The ERA was a full run lower last season, and he had a nice 140/40 K/BB. This season he's partially having issues because of his control. He's only sporting a 62/35 K/BB in a little more than half the innings as last year. As I said, the change of league will help ... facing a whole batch of new hitters is always advantageous to the pitcher. His turn-around starts tonight.

Richie Sexson
Going to the Yankees never hurts a guy's value. Sure, Sexson won't be playing even close to everyday ... but if you play in a really deep AL-Only league and you are just looking for power numbers, he'll help. He's going to get at-bats as a DH and 1B against lefties. Don't expect him to infringe upon Jason Giambi's value.

Ray Durham
Believe it or not, going from a bad team to a very good one actually hurts the value of Durham ... and the value of Rickie Weeks as well. Weeks should keep the starting role for the time being, but Durham will surely cut into that playing time sooner rather than later. You can't consider either guy a fantasy starter in any league at this point unless it's a really deep NL-Only. If you have either -- and think you can dupe someone in your league -- now is the time to trade them. Otherwise you'll be cutting dead weight quite soon.

Fantasy Focus: Players on the Move originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Do as I Say, Not as I Do: Please Trade Rich Harden

Will Brinson — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:00:00 EST

Filed under: Oakland, Athletics, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

On Sunday night, for the first time in the history (which spans multiple decades, and I'm only 26) of my fantasy playing, I traded for Rich Harden. I feel like I got a good deal, and he came with Felix Hernandez, but it occurred to me yesterday morning that, "Holy Crap. I just traded for a season-long red cross."

Yes, I am slow on the uptake.

The point though, is not to tell you to trade for him. Quite the opposite, in fact. The point is, that if I, as a skeptic of Harden the fantasy player, am willing to allow him to become part of a deal, then he has sufficiently reached some sort of level where there is a chance the general public thinks he might stay healthy.

And right now, you can get some good value back for him too.

For instance, Aaron Harang has stunk the joint up so far this year. It's pretty likely his owner wants to move him. Would a straight up Harang for Harden trade work? Most certainly; you could even possibly (likely?) persuade the other owner into sweetening the deal because of Harang's struggles. Harang is rocking a high BABIP and a heavier reliance on his slider. Additionally, he's allowing tons of line drives and far fewer ground balls as of right now.

The principle of this trade remains simple: regardless of how much Harang turns around his season, it will be better than the time that Harden spends on the disabled list.

Other options are available too. Dustin McGowan and C.C. Sabathia looked like great buy lows until their recent complete game shutouts, but another bad outing and a strong one by Harden could make something like that happen quickly.

Regardless, right now you can target pitchers that are down on their luck by using Harden as bait. If you believe -- bear in mind, you really shouldn't -- and enjoy risk, then hold onto him. But the smart move is to get something in return before it's too late. Because after all, he's an ace. When he's healthy.

Do as I Say, Not as I Do: Please Trade Rich Harden originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Is Johan Not Johan Anymore?

Matt Snyder — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 21:25:00 EST

Filed under: Mets, NL East, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Last night a deal passed through in one of my leagues: Lance Berkman for Johan Santana. At first glance, I thought I loved the sell-high on Berk and buy-quasi-low on Johan. Then I started thinking more about what we've seen from Johan in the past season and a half or so as compared to what he was before that. In case you didn't know, here it is. He started to absolutely deal during an outing on August 3rd of 2003. From that point until the end of 2006 (111 starts), his numbers were sick:

63-19, 2.75 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.94 K/BB, and 9.7 K/9. He allowed 76 HR in 756 1/3 innings.

Every inch of those stats is incredibly elite. Keeping that up over the long haul would be easy hall-of-fame status and in the discussion for the best pitcher of all-time. What we've seen since then in 46 starts (hardly a small sample):

22-17, 3.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.26 K/BB, and 9.1 K/9. He has allowed 45 HR in the past 306 2/3 innings.

So his winning percentage has plummeted, ERA has risen a half run, and he's giving up more hits, home runs, and runs.

What does that tell us?

The K difference isn't huge, but the major shift came this season alone when his K/9 has dipped to 7.8 and K/BB is only 3.6. The rise in HRs is actually quite drastic the past two seasons, while the BABIP allowed hasn't changed much. The walks haven't budged, but the hits are -- as I said -- up.

Summary: Johan's not striking out near as many batters as he used to, while he's giving up more hits, home runs, and runs without losing control ... and the hits haven't been statistically lucky.

Translation: One of two things can be taken from this noticeable shift in performance. He could either be the victim of an adjusted approach by hitters through advanced scouting where they learned how to better deal with his stuff, or his stuff is simply not near as good as it once was -- and this is the much more likely scenario.

Verdict: He's a stud. Yes, still. But he's not Johan circa 2006. Many fantasy players still get starry-eyed when they see the name -- we probably have to start using his full name again to avoid confusion. If you own him and you find a fellow owner that fits the bill, it's time to commit a fantasy felony by grabbing an elite hitter for him. His ADP for the past two years was in the top five each time. He's not that great. I'd rather have Brandon Webb. If you can get Berkman, Chase, Hanley, etc. for Johan in a trade it's a superb deal.

Specific trade questions? Hit us up!

Is Johan Not Johan Anymore? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 21:25:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stud Or Shelton: Saunders and Wellemeyer Head List of Surprising Starters

Matt Snyder — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 14:07:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB, MLB Waiver Wire

Remember Chris Shelton's beastly start in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are having a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

Starting pitching has been relatively topsy-turvy this season. You've got C.C., Bedard, and Verlander collectively sucking. On the other hand, Saunders is tied for the AL lead in wins and Wellemeyer is 7-1. Etc. Etc. Etc.

This is weird, but it's my job to help you sort it out and plan for the rest of the '08 campaign. Let's start with the dude at the right who is throwing a ball at you.

Joe Saunders -- He's 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Those numbers alone say "elite starter." He also plays for the team that wins games, so he should keep piling up wins. As for the other numbers, I'd be worried. In 82 innings he's only struck out 39 guys. If you aren't a power pitcher, you can survive on getting the ground ball, it's just that he's not. 1.21 grounders per flies, teamed with his unGodly .238 allowed BABIP. This means that he's received an inexplicable amount of luck in regards to the type of contact being made.

Verdict: Shelton. Big time Shelton.

More after the jump ...

Todd Wellemeyer -- Everytime someone talks about Cards' pitching guru Dave Duncan being a genius I hear "ANTHONY REYES ... KIP WELLS!" blaring in my ear in stereo. Still, there are many more examples of guys pulling a Wellemeyer under his tutelage. Coming into this season, Wellemeyer's numbers were disastrous. As a Cubs fan, I'd seen flashes of what could be a good pitcher in there, but it was eventually buried in a pile of futility. It would seem that Duncan found the silver lining and beautifully exploited it this year. 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA so far, as well as a decently good 62 K in 80 innings. Sure, his BABIP against is .258, but it's always been low for him, even when he sucked (.286 career allowed BABIP).

Verdict: Stud. He's legit and will remain so all season.

Jesse Litsch -- How about this business? You've got focus on Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, and the studly young duo ... then Uncle Jesse comes from out of nowhere and straight deals. He's 7-2 with a 3.45 ERA currently with only 11 free passes. Well, it's not really from out of nowhere. He's been steadily progressing in the minors for the past three years, culminating with a 2.24 minor league ERA last season before his call. He just turned 23 in spring training, too, so keeper leagues take note.

Verdict: Stud. Quasi-stud for the rest of this year, legit stud in the future.

Aaron Laffey -- Just as I correctly predicted in Spot Jobs, he's already on his descent. A 1.59 ERA became a 2.98 in just a couple of starts. His minor league ERA was always around 3.00 and he's shown the ability to have good stuff, but he just doesn't strike out enough guys to keep the ERA down where it is. The .271 allowed BABIP is low for him, too, even after the catastrophic start in Texas. He's gonna get rocked a few more times. He's only 23, though, so don't bail in keeper leagues.

Verdict: Shelton for '08, but he has a bright future.

Ryan Dempster -- Greebs already did this little dance on my boy Dempster. Things have changed since that post, though. "Dumptruck" isn't going away. He currently sits with a 7-2 record and a sparkling 2.90 ERA. Walks were a problem earlier this season, but he's gotten those under control. I wanna throw away pitching stats here and just proclaim that he's a different guy. In the off-season he committed himself to an intense workout regimen and transformed himself back into a starting pitcher. Here's an example: he's a good hitter now. He's hitting .209, and his career average is .086. He's crushed a double in the gap in each of his last two starts and he's bar none the best bunter the Cubs have (9 sacs already). This doesn't have anything to do with fantasy, but it's proof that he's done everything to become a complete player this season. That doesn't just go away.

Verdict: Stud, not that I'm biased or anything.

Greg Smith -- Like Laffey, he was also shellacked in Texas on June 1. An ERA that was once 2.54 is now all the way up to 3.74. It will keep going up, he's just not ready yet.

Verdict: Shelton

Stud Or Shelton: Saunders and Wellemeyer Head List of Surprising Starters originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 06 Jun 2008 14:07:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Felony: Pulling the Holliday Heist

Matt Snyder — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:09:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Rockies slugger and reigning MVP runner-up Matt Holliday is expected to come off the DL next week. Prior to his ailment, Holliday was doing his usual thing (.321-8-26 in 46 games with eight steals), though his power output was down a bit. Now he's coming off an injury and plays for the worst team in the majors.

So you are in for 500 words on why the first-rounder is a "buy-low" candidate on the fantasy trade market, right?

Actually, no. Not at all. I'm going to ask you to gamble. I'm going to suggest you trade Holliday -- assuming you can get full value for him. It's a tricky situation on several fronts. First of all, don't float one of those "Matt Holliday is on the block" messages to your entire league. People will think you're up to something fishy. Go through the rosters of your league-mates and target studs whom you'd like to plug into Holliday's slot. Lance Berkman, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Josh Hamilton, etc. Start inquiring. You should actually be able to land an additional player with some of those dudes for Holliday.

So that's how to pull the heist. Now here's why ...

Speculation that Holliday will be traded is becoming more and more rampant. Whether the articles are well written or simply absurd conjecture, the talk is growing and it's nearly two months from the trade deadline. Common sense dictates that a team thinking they are one power bat from a WS Title are going to start throwing prospect-laden packages at the Rocks. And the Rocks' season is over. Yes, on June 3rd I'm making that proclamation. So why not make a deal instead of saddling themselves with another albatrossian Helton-like contract?

And therein lies our fantasy quandary. If you think there's a realistic chance Holliday gets dealt (I do), then you simply must spin him for first round value while you can. Once the rumors pick up, everyone will be privy and you'll be stuck with him as your centerpiece all season.

If you don't know what I'm talking about, I'll show you that superstar Matt Holliday is a Coors Field production. All you have to do is look at his splits. They are staggering.

In 310 games at Coors in his career he has hit 75 home runs, while only knocking out 36 in 295 career road games.

The RBI totals are 267 to 154 in favor of the home side.

His home average? .363. Road? .274.

OPS at home is 1.090 to .780 on the road.

This is ugly.

Even ancillary numbers that shouldn't be affected by the light Rocky Mountain air are. His K/BB ratio is 190/106 at home and 238/96 on the road. He's actually been hit by a pitch 26 times at home to only 14 on the road. All this aids in his OBP being 90 points higher at home (.426 to .336).

Basically, if you calculated his entire career road stats and made them into a 162 game average you'd be looking at this line:

.274-20-85 with 88 runs and 14 steals.

If he gets traded, that's your first round pick's output. Translation: fantasy season over.

Don't let that happen. Be felonious.

Fantasy Felony: Pulling the Holliday Heist originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:09:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Big Unit Big-Time Dealin' Again

Matt Snyder — Fri, 30 May 2008 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Anyone seen Randy Johnson partying like it's 1999 recently? In his last three outings we've seen 20 innings of retro Unit. 24 strikeouts compared to only three walks and earned runs each. The ratio numbers for those outings look especially tasty ... 1.00 WHIP, 1.35 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 8 K/BB. Those numbers are silly, and only one of the starts was against a poor offense (Giants -- the other two were against the Braves and Tigers).

He's taken no decisions in the latest two outings, so you may not have noticed, but he still sports a nice 4-1 overall record to go with his plummeting 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The 56/14 K/BB in only 51 2/3 innings overall is exceptional. So with the trends pointing to a resurgence, do we expect the 44 year-old with two back surgeries in the past two years to hold up?

I don't, not like this. He's old, and there are a ton of pitches that have come out of that arm. You could argue from the above figures that he's just finding his rhythm since returning from back surgery and that the back had bothered him in his departure from greatness from 2005-2007 ('06 was the first time since 1989 he had a worse ERA than the league average).

I recommend you do so to a trading partner if you own him. He recently eclipsed the 3900 inning mark, and there can't be many more left in that tank ... no matter how big a unit he is.

Not sure who to deal for? Check out Brinson's value machine for ideas, or hit us up with questions via email.

Big Unit Big-Time Dealin' Again originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 30 May 2008 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Devalued Penny

Matt Snyder — Thu, 22 May 2008 14:01:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Brad Penny started the All-Star game for the National League last season, and he took a 10-1 record and 2.39 ERA with him. In the second half of the season he wasn't bad by any stretch (6-3, 3.84), but his numbers did take a hit. Still, coming into 2008 it was hard to be down on a 30 year-old coming off a 16-4 season that sported a 3.03 ERA.

This year he entered his May 7th start against the Mets with a 5-2 record and a 3.19 ERA. That's not fantasy ace material, but it's certainly in the must-start range.

Since then, though, the numbers have been staggering ... in a bad way.

In 16 2/3 innings, Penny has allowed 28 hits and 20 earned runs. These three combined pathetic displays jacked his ERA up to 5.34. His WHIP is currently an subpar 1.56. He's only struck out 30 while walking 22 in his 59 innings of work thus far in '08.

So it's buy-low time, right?

Well, that depends. Are you expecting the first half of '07 Brad Penny?

If so, do not trade for him. You won't get that version. That was an extended aberration that only one owner in your fantasy league was able to enjoy. It's gone forever. Remove that 10-1 first half and Penny's career record would only be 83-69. His career ERA is just a touch under 4, even with that stellar stretch.

When going well, Penny's actually more like the 14-10 4.13 guy he was in '03, or the 16-9 4.33 guy he was in '06 than the first half of last season -- which you need to erase from your memory. With a caveat.

What's that?

Glad you asked. Penny's regressing on a few fronts and last year was no exclusion. His control has gotten considerably worse, as his BB/9 have steadily increased each year since 2005, moving almost incrementally from 2.10 to 3.36 (this season). In turn, his strikeouts have gone down from a high point of 7.05 K/9 in 2006 to only 4.58 this season. It's not hard to figure out his stuff isn't as good as it once was even when he does find the zone, and while the .326 (compared to a career .303) allowed BABIP points towards "unlucky," it's also be the partial byproduct of getting hit much harder nowadays.

For now, he's getting hit a lot harder in these last three starts than one would expect. He has too high a BABIP, so you'd expect that to fall a bit. On the other hand, his control is becoming a long-term problem, as is his decline in punch-out power.

Slump or Suck Verdict: He certainly doesn't suck like his last three starts, so it's a slump. Just remember, he's slumping from -- and hoping to return to -- the version of the Penny we saw in 2003, 2006, and the second half of last season. Expecting anything more will only lead you down the long, dark road to Disappointmentville. A dreary place in Fantasyland for sure. He's a cautious buy-low. Just don't give much for him, because he's no stud.

The Devalued Penny originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 22 May 2008 14:01:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Danny Cabs and the Unfathomable Realization of Potential Upside

Will Brinson — Wed, 21 May 2008 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Orioles, AL East, Baltimore, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

We always talk in fantasy baseball about upside, potential, selling high, blahblahblah. Even more time is spent discussing these things than the hours we spend each preseason yapping about how Daniel Cabrera is finally going to turn things around and become a fantasy ace and freakish strikeout monster.

Until this season, when, after Leo Mazzone's inability to help D-Cab cut down on his walks, people were relatively quiet. We gave up. And why not? There was no need to burn an early-mid round pick on a guy that would shatter your WHIP and consistently befuddle your lineup with his, um, inconsistency.

But is this season any different? And am I required by fantasy writer law to address him this week? "Yes, kind of" on both counts.

Note that his BB/9 of 3.21 is substantially down from his previous best season in the majors (4.76 last year), but his K/9 has also seen a dip, although not as steep, down to it's lowest point in his career at 5.48. This means he is pitching much more to contact than he has in the past.

And this has led to, in conjunction with a 57.5 GB%, Cabs averaging over 6 and two thirds innings pitched per start.

On the positive side of things, there is the obvious decrease in walks, as well as increase in HR/FB, up to 14.5%. That is "positive", only because it should, in theory, come back down. But if D-Cab is pitching to more contact, as he appears to be, we really have to readjust what we think we know about how many yardballs he's going to give up.

On the negative side of things, besides the fact that he pitches for the playing-over-their-collective-head Baltimore Orioles, he has also been a bit lucky this season. His BABIP is .236, 70 points lower than last year. Again, though, maybe we have to readjust if he is going to be an extreme groundballer, although not that much.

Also, Danny is leaving 81.2% of runners stranded, which is also too high. This is a problem too, considering his drop in K/9 and lessened ability to "pitch around his problems", if I may quote Steve Phillips (and then go hang myself).

The deal is this though: Cabrera is an unknown quantity that seems to be pitching above his head. For that reason, you should sell high. (And if you need a totally concrete answer, No, I do not believe. Unreal. Whatever.)

If you want to believe in the power of upside and potential, hold onto him and hope he has finally evolved -- there are plenty of people who are at worst cautiously optimistic right now -- but you have to be aware that he could potentially implode along with the Orioles.

The other reason to sell high is that his owners have always drooled over his potential and he appears to be fulfilling it, at least on the front of things. That alone -- perceived value > real value -- makes him a worthy sell high. And yes, most everyone may be wary. But there's always someone who wants to believe. Just figure out who that is.

Danny Cabs and the Unfathomable Realization of Potential Upside originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 21 May 2008 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Brett Myers Sucks

Matt Snyder — Wed, 21 May 2008 14:05:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck, MLB Fantasy Felony, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB

What? You wanna argue with me?

Are you going to tell me about how he struck out 208 batters when he was only 24, or that he followed that up with 189 in 198 innings the following season? Or that he's K'd 50 this season in less than 60 innings? I don't care about that. He sucks.

Are you going to inform me that he's only 27 years old and he may be suffering through a rough start with his location because he's still adjusting back to being a starter after being thrust into the closer's role early last season? Oh c'mon.

I suppose next you'll tell me that he won 25 games combined in '05-'06, to which I'd reply that he's only on pace for about seven this year. Like I said ... SUCKS!

Please don't tell me that his WHIP was between 1.20 and 1.30 each of the last three years, because this year it is 1.60. As Chuck Barkley would say, that's turrible.

Those sub-4.00 ERAs his last two years as a full-time starter that you want to bring up? A thing of the past. He's sitting with a 5.76 currently. Wow, he blows.

I don't want to hear that his allowed .335 BABIP is way too high and statistically should start coming down, because it doesn't help my cause. He's just a bad pitcher.

Small sample size? Puh-leez. It's late May.

/the idiot in your fantasy league that has given up on Brett Myers ...

Brett Myers Sucks originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 21 May 2008 14:05:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Panic Time With Peavy

Matt Snyder — Sun, 18 May 2008 18:22:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Damage Control, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

As first reported here on FanHouse by my esteemed collegue, Mullett, Jake Peavy is on the shelf with elbow issues. Yes, pitching arm elbow problems for a man that relies on a nasty bender and smoke along with his impeccable control. He says it's been bothering him "the past three or four starts." Hmmmm ...

The starts where his ERA jumped from 1.20 to 2.91? The ones where his record went from 3-0 to 4-3? This is disturbing on so many levels to fantasy owners of Peavy. He was an elite draft pick for certain, and he stormed out of the gate this year. After a no decision at home against the Rocks on April 17th, Peavy sported the aforementioned sick ERA with that 3-0 record and 27 punchouts in 30 innings.

In his last start he couldn't even get out of the fifth inning -- though to be fair the Cubs have been killing the ball this year -- yielding seven hits and four earned runs. He did strike out eight, but he's enough of a battler to make that happen sometimes. That doesn't change the fact that the Padres would be more careful with Peavy because of his long-term potential. They wouldn't sacrifice that, and they certainly won't sacrifice that if the team continues to hover around a .350 winning percentage.

I'm worried, and you should be too. Studs like Peavy don't just miss a start on a whim, and elbow problems in a pitching arm don't just go away. It's time to shop Peavy to some owner who thinks this is a minor setback and that he's buying low.

As I explicitly stated in the title, I'd be in full-on panic mode with Peavy on my squad.

Panic Time With Peavy originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sun, 18 May 2008 18:22:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start

Will Brinson — Thu, 15 May 2008 01:00:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on Edinson Volquez right now. Okay, actually, there are actually a few reasons why you don't want to move him. His sparkling ERA (1.12), coupled with his six wins (tied for second in the bigs) and 57 K's in 48 innings have made him a valuable fantasy commodity.

But, as is often the case, things are not all that they seem. Reality tells us that there are several factors working against Volquez' current success, and that makes him a superb sell high option.

First, his stats. A 1.12 ERA and a 10.61 K/9 ratio are wonderful. But there are some other mitigating factors to those numbers. His WHIP (1.26) is actually higher than his ERA. That's not obscenely shocking, but it does indicate some luck. As does his ERA when compared to his 4.84 BB/9.

Both of those numbers tell us that he is frequently allowing baserunners, but not letting them score. And that checks out perfectly with his 90.8 strand rate, 20% above the big league norm. In other words, some of these guys getting on base are going to start scoring more frequently.

Factor in his home park/bandstand alongside his 2.8% HR/FB ratio, and it becomes clear that more balls will be leaving the park soon as well. And finally, he is a rookie. Even with Dusty Baker managing -- and that might actually make it worse -- he is going to get tired later in the season and/or reach a preset innings ceiling, greatly limiting his value, especially in H2H leagues.

Justin Verlander lost is seventh game on Wednesday. The chances of him going 4-24 on the season are about as high as Volquez going 24-4. If it's a hitter you're looking for, Cincy teammate Adam Dunn is a nice possibility, given is stinkjob to start the season. Or maybe Corey Hart, with only one tater on the year thus far. The other owner is going to know that you're trying to sell Volquez high, but I'd be willing to bet that anyone owning those player is at least willing to listen to a straight up swap.

Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 15 May 2008 01:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Quick Hit: Uggla a Microcosm for Marlins

Matt Snyder — Tue, 13 May 2008 16:15:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you could do things like buy stock in a professional baseball team, and you owned some Florida Marlins shares right now, I'd be screaming one word to you over and over: SELL!

As of this writing, the boys from Florida -- still basking in the glory of shedding the albatross that is Dontrelle Willis -- are currently in a three-way tie for the best record in baseball with the Cubs and DBacks (yeah, I didn't have to name the other two teams, I know ... it's just fun for me).

While I'll grant you they don't suck, they certainly are not 98 win good (the current pace).

Enter the microcosm: Dan Uggla doesn't suck. He's a very solid fantasy 2B, matter of fact. Of course, he's on pace for 51 HRs and 119 RBIs right now. He can't and won't do anything close to that ... at least not the bombs. The reason for the pace is that he's been stupid in the past ten games. Since May 2nd, Uggla has eight homers and 16 ribbies while watching his average surge 45 points and his slugging skyrocket (up 199 points).

So you sell high immediately, right?

Not so fast. Let's be a little deliberate here. If you own him, I'd probably initiate trade talks ... just make sure to take an Andy MacPhail-like pace (use the Erik Bedard deal as your guide). The reason for this is that Uggla has shown quite the affection for playing baseball in May.

In 2006 he hit .356 with a .910 OPS. Only three bombs, but 18 RBI and seven other hits for extra bases. The average was 45 points higher than any other month.

In 2007 he his .307 (only .245 for the entire season). His power numbers were nice as well, with six homers (tied for his most in a month) and 16 RBI. He also clubbed 13 doubles, two triples (of three total) and walked 15 times. His OPS for the month was 1.005. He didn't have an OPS higher than .793 in any other month.

Right now? Ummm ... 1.656 OPS in May? Wow. That .353 BABIP can't last even on the balls that haven't left the yard. The reason his real average is still only .389 this month with that sick BABIP and the eight home runs is that he's struck out 12 times already (in only 36 at-bats). That's a harbinger of bad things eventually arriving -- at least in batting average.

So I grooved a 3-1 fastball for you right now. You know what to do with it.

You don't? I'll whisper:

Trade him in late May. Or early June.

History is on your side ... not Uggla's or his larger-scale friend Marlins.

Yeah, they don't suck, but when your stock for a surprising upstart company is performing like a Fortune 500, you sell it like it's cursed. With Uggla, if said history is any indication, we know when the stock will start to fall.

Quick Hit: Uggla a Microcosm for Marlins originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 13 May 2008 16:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Quick Hit: Soriano Heating Up

Matt Snyder — Mon, 12 May 2008 22:28:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy owners of Alfonso Soriano have been incredibly frustrated with him for pretty much the entire season ... up until Saturday, when he broke through with a 4-5 game. On Tuesday, his encore was a 2-for-5 performance that included a double and bomb (his fourth).

Keep in mind his power started very slowly last season as well. He didn't hit his fifth bomb until June 3rd ... and he ended up with 33.

Since his comeback, Sori has been showing signs of being ready to break through. He's taking pitches he was swinging at earlier in the season, and hitting balls hard as opposed to lazy fly balls and weak grounders. The average has now steadily risen since coming back from the DL -- .164 to .232 in 10 games -- and the extra base hits are piling up. Before his injury, he only garnered extra bases three times in 12 games. Since? Seven. He was even robbed of a home run by Griffey last week in Cincy.

Since he's not going to steal bases like the 40/40 man of old (only two years ago, but it seems like ages since he mattered on the bases because of leg injuries), he's not going to be the top five pick-type again ... but if you need HR and Runs help, he's your man. He's an elite option in those categories from this point forward, while he won't hurt you in the other three (you can still count on 15-20 SBs with a .290ish average and around 75 RBI).

If his owner is still sleeping, it won't hurt to make an inquiry. Remember, Soriano's made said owner endure a lot of crap thus far with very little return.

And a big return is coming ... it's right around the corner.

Quick Hit: Soriano Heating Up originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 12 May 2008 22:28:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Underachievers: The Tigers' Alleged Aces

Matt Snyder — Fri, 09 May 2008 10:27:00 EST

Filed under: Detroit, Tigers, AL Central, MLB Slump or Suck, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Coming into the season, the Tigers were everyone's darlings. Why not? They had a ridiculous offense and a starting rotation capable of piling up the wins with the large expected run support. The problems that most overlooked were that the bullpen is awful (with injuries to Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya the main benefactors), Dontrelle Willis sucks, and Kenny Rogers is ancient. Personally, I didn't like them as much as others because of all this. Still, though, no one expected Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman to struggle this mightily. Both should have been armed and ready for a big season.

Bonderman is still only 25 -- doesn't it seem like he's been around forever? -- and has shown the ability to strikeout hitters (202 K in '07) and control his pitches (only averaged 56 BB/season from '05-'07) with the best. His ERA has never been stellar, but with a natural progression and the bashers supporting him you had to expect he'd be able to garner the victories in '08.

Verlander is also 25, and he's a phenom. He won 35 games in the past two years while upping his punchouts to 183 last year in just over 200 innings. With a triple digit heater and some filthy off-speeders, you'd figure him for the Cy Young race this season.

Instead, something is wrong. With both of them.

Bonderman can't throw a strike this season. He's walked 25 guys in only 41 innings, and even when he doesn't give free passes he's falling behind in the count -- which only sets up pitchers for failure. His stuff isn't what he showed it could be back in 2006, and he's not even averaging six innings per start.

Verdict: Cut bait. I don't like the chances for him to flip a switch and get going again. He could be hurt, or just mentally whipped. Either way, I'd trade him to someone who thinks they are buying low if you own him, and I wouldn't even consider trading for him if you don't.

Verlander is even more perplexing. He was the one pitching ace I targeted in drafts this pre-season (fortunately I wasn't alone since someone always snagged him before I did!). His ERA has jumped from 3.63 to 3.66 to 6.43 in his three seasons. He's already given up seven jacks in 49 innings (he only yielded 20 in 201.7 innings last season), and it's likely due to his lack of control. He's currently sitting with 21 walks and he only walked 67 dudes all year last season. On the other hand, he doesn't seem injured. His stuff is good enough to get him going again if the control gets figured out.

Verdict: Go get him. I'm calling his control to get worked out and everything will fall into place like that. Remember how bad Carlos Zambrano was last year until June? Verlander's stuff is better -- when he's on -- and he's got a potentially better offense to support him. The walks will come down, and the wins will go up. If you own him, suck it up. If you don't, now is the perfect time to buy low after yet another terrible outing last night.

Underachievers: The Tigers' Alleged Aces originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 09 May 2008 10:27:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap

Matt Snyder — Wed, 07 May 2008 00:15:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.

Aaron Harang is a bonafide upper-echelon fantasy pitcher, and when owners get through the first week of May with a 1-5 pitcher whom they landed in the early rounds ... well, they start to get angry and impatient. A desperate, disillusioned owner is a vulnerable owner in the trade market, so it's time to swoop in. Pull all your usual smooth-talking tricks. You don't have to pull a George Costanza ("do that thing you do, where you lie to everybody," says Jerry), but you can allow emphasis on cons while conveniently forgetting about the pros if the owner is complaining.

As I said, he's 1-5. His team sucks, and the run support he's receiving is embarrassing. After Tuesday night's eighth outing, Harang had surrendered 19 earned runs, while his team had only scored 23 (five of which were in one game which happened to be his only bad outing, so you can see there's bad luck at play as well).

Bet on the luck changing -- thus altering his record positively -- and everything else to remain the same.

All Harang's numbers are in line outside of the W-L column (which we know is not a quality indicator of the value of a starting pitcher in the long run) are very solid. He's punched out 48 in eight starts, while sporting a 3.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10; yet he's being overshadowed in fantasy circles by Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. For the rest of this season, Harang is a much more reliable option. It ain't close. With the young guys you'll get inconsistency and the possibility of hitting a wall late in the season when the innings count gets up there into unprecedented territory. Harang is a thoroughbred ... going 210+ innings in each of the last three years and 230+ in the last two. That's why he's among the league leaders in Ks each year and will continue to be.

Look, the Reds offense hasn't been good by any stretch, but with good hitters throughout the order (Junior, Dunn, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Keppinger, and hopefully Jay Bruce eventually) there is no reason to believe Harang's run of poor fortune will continue.

Harang's doing his job, and the Reds' offense should start doing theirs.

You need to do yours and trade for him at this record low price.

Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 07 May 2008 00:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Mark Teixeira: Not a Fan of April

Will Brinson — Mon, 05 May 2008 02:30:00 EST

Filed under: Atlanta, Braves, NL East, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you've ever followed Mark Teixeira's career path, you know that he stinks in April. The rest of the year, the guy is generally an absolute masher who may or may not have been compared to Lou Gherig following his ridiculous 43 homer, 144 RBI season of 2005. But in April, he's not great.

Whether or not those comparisons are actually valid or not, of course, remains to be seen. But remember, that was only two years ago. Teixeira has struggled somewhat so far in April, but as the AJC reports, he's starting to heat up (and yes, he's obviously always a buy low at this point in the season).

"Big Tex" has very quietly hit safely in 18 of his past 22 games. The streak raised his batting average from an invisible .156 to a very noticeable .267. And he's still climbing.

'I just try to go out there and get hits every day, be consistent,' said Teixeira, a career .286 hitter, but only a .251 hitter in the season's first month. 'Hopefully during a full year, the numbers will be there at the end of the season.'

Okay, so he actually hit .290 in April, which is actually better than his career average, but the power numbers haven't even really begun to climb. He's on pace for 21 home runs and 97 RBI. The latter isn't so much in his control, but the former is just not going to stay that low. He's only hitting 11.9% of his fly balls for home runs right now, which is nearly eight percentage points below his career average.

Fantasy Spin: Please note that his is your final chance to buy low. Do what it takes to get him. He's about to go off.

Mark Teixeira: Not a Fan of April originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 05 May 2008 02:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Johnny Cueto Is Already 'Old and Busted'

Will Brinson — Thu, 01 May 2008 00:30:00 EST

Filed under: Phoenix, Reds, Diamondbacks, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, MLB Kids Are Alright

Okay, okay. "Old and busted" is probably a bit excessive. But Johnny Cueto is certainly not the "new hotness" any more. That title, friends, belongs to Max Scherzer. You may have seen me post about him once or twice. Anyway, the point of recognizing the huge schism between the two right now is that it shows just how ridiculous hype gets in fantasy baseball leagues.

No less than two weeks ago, Cueto was the new Pedro Martinez, only in his prime and with faster, better stuff. And now, Cueto is getting dropped from fantasy teams left and right after giving up six earned runs in less than two innings this week.

All of this while Scherzer, who threw four plus perfect innings and got inserted into the rotation, is being added at "record" pace. I use the quotes because this is what happens with baller young pitchers when they get called up. The importance here, is to recognize the importance of selling high on these kids. If you go look at any "recent trades involving" lists on Scherzer, you'll see people like Johan Santana and Ryan Howard on the other side. And that's just ridiculous.

But the exact same thing was happening with Cueto a few weeks ago. Scherzer is going to be a dominant pitcher. And he is going to strike a ton of guys out. But the Diamondbacks are very much interested in the future of their organization. And Doug Davis is going to return. In other words, his rotation job and innings aren't guaranteed. But upside blinded owners don't see that.

That means that if you own Scherzer now -- especially in single year leagues -- you should be shopping the hell out of him. If you're going to get him on May 2nd with a waiver claim, you should already be shopping him. And if you're in a keeper league, well, there's no absolute guarantee that he'll be great forever (see: Liriano, Francisco) so there's nothing wrong with getting a proven stud for him.

Either way, the lesson is that hype is always fleeting. No matter how realistic a lot of us can be, there is always an owner blinded by the upside and potential of a young pitcher who just got called up. (Raises hand to symbolize occasional guilt.) You have to realize who that owner is and take advantage before your young pitcher gets Cuetoed.

Johnny Cueto Is Already 'Old and Busted' originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 01 May 2008 00:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Your Highly Overrated White Sox Pitcher Is ...

Will Brinson — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:15:00 EST

Filed under: Chicago, White Sox, AL Central, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.

If you Google "Gavin Floyd Fantasy", you'll see plenty of articles mentioning his hot start. Trust me, I just did it. I wanted to make sure he was a sell high candidate. Just in case his 2-0 record, 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP didn't make him a hot enough commodity. I found no less than four articles (just scanning quickly) that recommended picking him up. So the hype is there.

So are the stats, at least on the face of things, as you can see above. But if we dig a little deeper, we'll see that Gavin might be pitching above his head (kind of like the White Sox are playing -- no way!)

First of all, Floyd is experiencing a spike in fly balls allowed this season, up to 53.7%. No big deal; outs are outs. Until you see that he's only allowing 6.9% of those fly balls to become home runs, an unsustainable pace. Like, that's not even my opinion or anything, man. It's just a fact.

Also unsustainable? His strand rate of 85.5% and his BABIP of .136. In other bad news, his K/9 and K/BB are both down (to 4.66 and 1.25, kind of respectively) while his BB/9 is actually up (3.72).

So to recap: basically every peripheral stat that we look for to determine if a pitcher is getting lucky with a really nice start points the wrong way for Mr. Floyd.

Gavin is a very talented pitcher with a wicked curveball. People have been talking about him as a great prospect for several years now. And they're talking again, because he's pitching well. But every single one of the peripherals surrounding his hot start point to him being lucky. And, yes, it is very difficult to peddle that young talent-ridden, upside-mcgriddled prospect that's been teasing fantasy owners for years. But facts is facts.

He's going to come back down to Urf, and you would be immensely better off packaging him with another player to deal for a struggling stud. Players that come to mind are Roy Oswalt or the almost recovered John Lackey and Scott Kazmir. All three would be absolute hijacks, even if you had to include another midlevel player for Roy.

Your Highly Overrated White Sox Pitcher Is ... originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 24 Apr 2008 02:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Felony: Come to Papi, Uh ... Papi

Will Brinson — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: Tigers, Phillies, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

I dislike it when people given the privilege to write about fantasy sports discuss their own leagues, but I'm guilty of sometimes myself. Now is one of those times. But I have a good reason. In a league with a bunch of my close friends, one of our owners took David Ortiz in the first round. Nothing shocking there, really, especially when you consider the depleted player pool that results from it being a keeper league.

But this week, Papi is on his bench. WTF, brah? Buried jersey or not, four for 44 slump be damned, you don't bench Big Papi. Awkwardly, it's working out for him because Casey Kotchman is outhitting the big guy. But this owner's team still struggles, because his pitching -- self-admittedly -- is horrible. This is where you pounce in.

David Ortiz
Specs: .104/.246/.167, 1HR, 3RBI, 9BB, 6.2%HR/F, .114 BABIP
The first two sets of stats -- the averages and the homers -- are what people look at. The last three -- the walks, percentage of fly balls that go for home runs and batting average on balls in play -- are what you should look at. The walks say he's being patient and the last two, well, "Look ma! Bad luck!" Or something like that. Either way, I can absolutely, 100% guarantee you that Ortiz will not continue to suffer through either of those low numbers. In fact, you could Spackler his back right hammy and I still think you'd see them both rise. But for the last few years, people keep wondering when age/weight/DH-type skills will catch up. Those people want the new hotness too. Johnny Cueto + the hot hitting Raul Ibanez seems like a decent starting offer.

Ryan Howard
Specs: .195/.339/.426, 3HR, 6RBI, 11BB, 22.5%HR/F, .214 BABIP
Hey, wait a minute. Three jacks, 11 walks, decent OPS ... Howard's not even hitting that poorly. He just has a really crummy average, which is what people care about way too much. Look no further than his .214 BABIP -- his low AVG is luck driven. He's also only hitting about 13% of his hits for line drives (22 and 24 % the last two years) so that has something to do with it too. Again, you want to trade for him. The aforementioned Kotchman or perhaps Carlos Pena -- who I think is real but not as real as Howard -- are nice options to pair with a pitcher if you're looking to pick up the Phillies slugger.

Miguel Cabrera
Specs: .205/.300/.318, 2HR, 5RBI, 6BB, 6.9%HR/F, .250
Miggy seems like the hardest of the three to pull off, but it's still doable. And it's also still more of the same. The balls that he puts in play are just -- unluckily -- not falling for hits, and less than half of his fly balls are going for home runs. Clearly, he can hit. Clearly, the Tigers are going to be an offensive machine. I'd look to move Chipper Jones or Mark Reynolds in combination with a pitcher to try and land Miggy.

These trades might not be accepted immediately, but like the rest of the options mentioned above, it will at least give you a starting point. And more importantly, it will give you a nice gauge of where the superstar's owner stands on his or her willingness to trade.

Fantasy Felony: Come to Papi, Uh ... Papi originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 16 Apr 2008 09:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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