Fantasy Mlb Slump Or Suck

Erik Bedard had another rough outing last night, and the Seattle fans are understandably frustrated with him. It's like they gave up talent for him (Adam Jones, George Sherrill, prospects, etc.) or something. The outing slipped Bedard's record to 4-4, his ERA to 4.47, and his WHIP to 1.33. He was supposed to be an ace for the M's and your fantasy team alike. What gives? You know how we break it down here on FanHouse ...

Slump or Suck?

Well, how about this little exercise ... Bedard's gone ten starts this season. Let's do a comparison:

First 11 '07 starts: 3-3, 4.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 83/26 K/BB in 68 innings.
First ten '08 starts: 4-4, 4.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 49/26 K/BB in 56.3 innings.

Looks a little similar, no? Okay, so the punchouts are waaaay down from '07, but everything else is right in line. All of a sudden last year at this point, though, something clicked for the ace. From May 30th to August 21st -- before straining his oblique and struggling through one outing before shutting it down for the season -- Bedard was the best pitcher in baseball. Here are the numbers to prove it:

16 starts: 10-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a ridiculous 135/26 in 108 frames.

Let me be a little more succinct, the way George Costanza likes it ... Bedard not pitching well, yada yada yada, it's a slump.

As long as he's healthy -- and there have no been indications otherwise from the organization or Bedard -- he definitely does not suck. Matter of fact, now seems like a good time to buy low, eh?

Don't know who to dangle for Bedard, email us and we'll help!

Brad Penny started the All-Star game for the National League last season, and he took a 10-1 record and 2.39 ERA with him. In the second half of the season he wasn't bad by any stretch (6-3, 3.84), but his numbers did take a hit. Still, coming into 2008 it was hard to be down on a 30 year-old coming off a 16-4 season that sported a 3.03 ERA.

This year he entered his May 7th start against the Mets with a 5-2 record and a 3.19 ERA. That's not fantasy ace material, but it's certainly in the must-start range.

Since then, though, the numbers have been staggering ... in a bad way.

In 16 2/3 innings, Penny has allowed 28 hits and 20 earned runs. These three combined pathetic displays jacked his ERA up to 5.34. His WHIP is currently an subpar 1.56. He's only struck out 30 while walking 22 in his 59 innings of work thus far in '08.

So it's buy-low time, right?

Well, that depends. Are you expecting the first half of '07 Brad Penny?

What? You wanna argue with me?

Are you going to tell me about how he struck out 208 batters when he was only 24, or that he followed that up with 189 in 198 innings the following season? Or that he's K'd 50 this season in less than 60 innings? I don't care about that. He sucks.

Are you going to inform me that he's only 27 years old and he may be suffering through a rough start with his location because he's still adjusting back to being a starter after being thrust into the closer's role early last season? Oh c'mon.

I suppose next you'll tell me that he won 25 games combined in '05-'06, to which I'd reply that he's only on pace for about seven this year. Like I said ... SUCKS!

Please don't tell me that his WHIP was between 1.20 and 1.30 each of the last three years, because this year it is 1.60. As Chuck Barkley would say, that's turrible.

Those sub-4.00 ERAs his last two years as a full-time starter that you want to bring up? A thing of the past. He's sitting with a 5.76 currently. Wow, he blows.

I don't want to hear that his allowed .335 BABIP is way too high and statistically should start coming down, because it doesn't help my cause. He's just a bad pitcher.

Small sample size? Puh-leez. It's late May.

/the idiot in your fantasy league that has given up on Brett Myers ...

In 2006, Travis Hafner absolutely mashed. In only 129 games, Pronk dropped 42 bombs, drove in 117, and led the majors with an obscene 1.097 OPS (registering a 179 OPS+). This was the continuation in a three year surge which placed him among the most imposing power hitters in the game.

Last year, he took a few steps backwards, but -- eventually -- his numbers weren't awful. Hitting 24 home runs and driving in 100 is quality, and he still scraped out a 118 OPS+. The problem, though, is that fantasy owners were relying on Pronk for elite power numbers in fantasy lineups, and these hardly qualified.

His draft status slipped a bit, but most people still considered last season an outlier and predicted a solid bounce-back for Pronk. He's not old yet -- of course, at 31 he's not exactly young either -- and there isn't really any evidence that can be used to justify such a drastic slip in performance between '07 and '08. Plus, he has my favorite nickname of all-time (Pronk = Project + Donkey -- "donkey" is what you call an atrocious defensive player).

So Hafner as a comeback candidate made sense. Only he's awful right now.

Coming into the season, the Tigers were everyone's darlings. Why not? They had a ridiculous offense and a starting rotation capable of piling up the wins with the large expected run support. The problems that most overlooked were that the bullpen is awful (with injuries to Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya the main benefactors), Dontrelle Willis sucks, and Kenny Rogers is ancient. Personally, I didn't like them as much as others because of all this. Still, though, no one expected Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman to struggle this mightily. Both should have been armed and ready for a big season.

Bonderman is still only 25 -- doesn't it seem like he's been around forever? -- and has shown the ability to strikeout hitters (202 K in '07) and control his pitches (only averaged 56 BB/season from '05-'07) with the best. His ERA has never been stellar, but with a natural progression and the bashers supporting him you had to expect he'd be able to garner the victories in '08.

Verlander is also 25, and he's a phenom. He won 35 games in the past two years while upping his punchouts to 183 last year in just over 200 innings. With a triple digit heater and some filthy off-speeders, you'd figure him for the Cy Young race this season.

Instead, something is wrong. With both of them.

Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Bill Hall is the kind of player that drives fans – and fantasy owners – crazy. Is he the guy who cranked 35 HR in 2006, or the one who never hit more than 17 HR in any other season? Is he the crusher who swatted four HR by April 9, or the player who has only hit three more since then?

Moving back to third base gave Hall more fantasy value this year – in theory, at least. It turns out that, at least for NL-only leagues, the outfield is possibly shallower than third base. Regardless, owners who cackled with glee at the way Hall burst out of the gates are singing a decidedly different tune right now. Hall is batting just .217 and has not shown much plate discipline, adding only 12 walks the whole season.

So, what's the story here? Is Hall going to be a drag on your batting and/or on-base average, and even if that's the case, is he going to be able to justify it with quality power statistics?

I read on a chat recently (I wish I could take credit for it myself) someone talking about their fantasy team name: "The Good, The Bad and D. Uggla."

First off, great name. And secondly, it's pretty appropriate. Dan Uggla's owners have seen very little of the good, a great deal of the bad and no shortage of the ugly this year.

It's only Uggla's third season, but you thought you knew what you were getting when you drafted him –unspectacular average but a seeming lock for 30 HR from second base, a hard hole to fill.

But so far in April, Uggla has been hoping to hit above the Mendoza line (which should really be renamed the Bob Uecker line, since he had an exact career .200 average) and shown little power along the way. With runners in scoring position (and remember, he has Hanley Ramirez batting ahead of him), he has exactly one hit. Which provided half of the six RBI he has thus far.

It's only 13 games or so, but should you be worried about Danny Boy?

Before I get into specific player analysis, a brief explanation of what Slump or Suck is supposed to be. (First off, it's a cute name, isn't it? Everybody doesn't just love Raymond, they love alliteration. ) But to clear up any confusion, the purpose of the column is to look at players who are under performing their historical performance and/or the expectations most folks had for them this season. If I think he's going to right the ship, then he's just in a Slump. If, however, I think that what you see is what you're gonna get ... well, then the player Sucks.

Get it? Got it? Good.

Today's post looks at Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre. Why do folks like Juan? (Hint: It's not just because his batting helmet always looks giant on his head, making him look like a toddler.)

Well, dig these numbers:

46-47-65-45-57-58-64

Yep, those are his stolen base numbers from the last seven seasons. That averages out to about 55 bags a season, which is indeed pretty darn good. We all know that Pierre has almost no power (and with 12 career homeruns, it's would be fair to remove the word 'almost' from that phrase), but the bags, runs scored (historically, a safe bet to exceed 90 R/season) and a career .301 batting average make him worth the power gap.

Don't they?

Hm.

When you are a 6'8", 240 lb first baseman, people expect you to rake. A LOT. And for awhile, Richie Sexson did just that. He's hit over 30 HR five times, twice reaching 45 jacks in a single season. Just two years ago, he posted the following line:

.264 avg, .338 OBP, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 75 R and 1 SB.

Sure, it's not going to win you any fantasy MVP awards. Among other things, the On Base Percentage suggests a lack of plate discipline (yep, 154 strikeouts – and that's not a season high for him) and he's obviously not racing around the bases.

But 34 jacks is 34 jacks. If you are even remotely interested in Sexson, it's for power. Home runs are like a little pot of gold in fantasy baseball – they provide a hit, a run, an RBI and of course the tater itself. This is why Sexson is potentially so appealing.

BUT ... there's always a but, isn't there?

After all, through Wednesday's games, Sexson is hitting a robust .091 (1/11) and ... well, that's all you really need to know about that. He's being dropped in a bunch of leagues as a result.

This in part is because this isn't a new development. Last year, Sexson missed a bunch of games due to a balky hamstring, and this season he's already suffering from a sore shoulder. That ain't good for fielding or hitting.

Let's be clear on one thing from the outset -- in early April, there's no such thing as a slump. The season just isn't long enough. And if you are just basing your opinions on how a player has done so far this season -- well, relax. It's just a game or two old. (In most cases, you definitely should not care a whit about Spring Training stats.)

But with others? Perhaps a slump has been going on since last year. Perhaps the player in question isn't in a slump so much as ... he sucks.

Perhaps the player in question is named Barry Zito. Now, I'm predisposed to like Zito -- he plays for my Giants, he seems generally like a nice, laid-back guy who "gets it," for what that's worth, and I'm always a sucker for someone with a big curveball.

But I'm here to say this: Barry Zito sucks.

Sure, you can take his Opening Day start apart in a million ways --- he didn't sniff 85 mph on the radar gun, he gave up three in the first, and generally looked like anything but an ace. Were that the only sin of Zito, all could and would be forgiven. But the reality is...he hasn't been right since joining the Giants before the 2007 season.