This is news I didn't think I'd be reporting this season, and it's most certainly something I didn't think would happen in June. This is nothing short of miraculous. After all the setbacksMark Mulder has experienced, he might start this weekend in Kansas City for the Cardinals. As reported in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
Tonight's outing is considered a tuneup more than a full-blown start, suggesting the Cardinals have made a decision but will wait to see how Mulder exits the appearance before confirming his return to the major leagues.
"It depends on how it goes. We're not really putting a day on it," general manager John Mozeliak said.
Asked when Mulder would start, Mozeliak said, "We'll know that by Tuesday."
So he's going tonight for Triple-A Memphis, and unless his arm falls off he could be inserted into the rotation? After everything that we've been reading up to this point, it's an absolutely stunning revelation. I'm still skeptical that he's physically okay. I mean, just a month ago we thought he'd never pitch again because they had no idea what was wrong with the shoulder. Now he's ready to pitch in the bigs? C'mon.
Fantasy Spin: Don't bother. There's no way he'll hold up over the course of the season. Even if he somehow does, he's been completely ineffective in triple-A, compiling a 13.50 ERA in 13 1/3 innings of work. He's only punched out eight, while he's allowed 28 hits en route to a horrifying 2.48 WHIP. If that's what the minor leaguers were doing the major leaguers (yes, even the Royals) will tattoo him.
On his second at-bat of the game tonight, Alfonso Soriano was beaned on the left wrist. ESPN just reported that he has a mildly displaced fracture of the fourth metacarpal. Translation: broken hand. He's reportedly out six weeks.
This is a blow to the Cubs, but hardly devastating. He's a stud and has been hitting as well as anyone in the everyday lineup, but the team is loaded with capable hitters and he's a defensive liability. They dealt without him for two weeks earlier in the season and played quite well, going 9-5.
For the Cubs, several guys will benefit playing-time wise. The options are plentiful thanks for the versatility of the bench and Mark DeRosa. Mike Fontenot or Ronny Cedeno can play second base while DeRosa shifts to LF. Micah Hoffpauir -- sure to get the call from triple-A -- will get some looks in LF as well. Finally, should Lou Pinella decide to stray from his CF platoon, Reed Johnson can play left while Jim Edmonds stays in center. There won't be an everyday lineup. Musical chairs is more like it.
Chris Duncan was already recalled from Triple-A Memphis and was in Pujols' spot at first base against the Reds.
We should see Pujols placed on the DL very soon and then it's a waiting game. I'm sure we'll hear more in the coming weeks as to the severity and a possible timetable for the big man's return.
Fantasy Spin: Look, I don't have to tell you how good this man is. For my money, he's the best player in baseball. Not only is he currently the heart and soul of the St. Louis franchise, but he was also your first round fantasy draft pick. You can't replace him. You will have to try by working the waiver wire for someone like Kevin Millar, Carlos Delgado (who is heating up), Adam LaRoche, or even Duncan. It sucks, doesn't it? Going from Pujols to Millar sounds as enticing as a shot to the groin.
You could try to shop Pujols to an owner that believes this is a minor injury, but it's murky now with the "at least three weeks" stamp placed on him. You don't want to move him for 50 cents on the dollar only to see him return raking in July. I'd have to recommend holding him and sucking it up with a lesser 1B for a bit. As always, you can email us for specific advice on your squad.
Non-Fantasy and totally personal spin: I can't say this bothers me!
Kerry Wood turns 31 next Monday. It was once thought by his 31st birthday that he'd have racked up all kinds of accolades by now. So he's old and a disappointment by those standards.
More recently it was thought he'd be out of baseball by now. So he's a feel-good story by that standard.
Most of all, though, he is absolutely filthy on the mound right now.
I remember on May 1st, after Wood blew a save against the Brewers, one of my friends texted me and asked when the Cubs would remove Wood from the closer duties. It actually prompted me to write this. Sure, it was probably somewhat wishful thinking -- but I just had this feeling. The makeup he has on the hill teamed with his size and ability to throw nearly 100 MPH along with the maturity and character he's built up through all the trying injury-riddled years just had "stud closer" written all over it to my biased eyes. I have never been more happy to be correct.
Since that blown save on the first of May, he has been lights out. He's been better than Carlos Marmol.
Jay Bruce has taken the baseball world by storm. He is hitting .450 plus, with three home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.5 K/BB rate plus two stolen bases. In 46 at bats. So, more or less, the only way he could be more perfect is if he understands the importance of certain statistical evaluations. And, of course, he does.
No surprise, Bruce is getting the last laugh. Heading into this season, in many circles he was considered baseball's best positional prospect. Yet, a start that included 16 hits in 30 at-bats is an attention grabber, no matter what the expectation.
Asked to explain his Red-hot start, Bruce said simply "Sample size."
Picture me blushing in awkward man-love admiration. Because that's, um, not what I am doing. Anytime a baseball player starts talking about BABIP or sample sizes it is awesome to find out that we have, as dak at FJM said, a "dude who gets it" on our hands.
Perhaps the best irony -- and maybe I am stretching it by wanting to think that Bruce believes nerdilicous statistical evaluations -- is that he has Dusty Baker as a manager. And Dusty does stats like Charlie does surf. Or Bruce does slump.
Fantasy Spin: Keeper leagues all hold on as tightly as possible to Bruce. Seasonal leagues may want to consider selling because, as you can see above, even Bruce knows this pace can't continue. And right now, you can get a pretty sickner bounty for him.
Manny Parra has always been a talented young lefthanded arm in the Brewers organization. He has struggled for the early part of this season though, particularly with his walks, and more particularly with his BABIP. As you may recall, I was bullish on Parra's chances earlier this year (although it's taken some time for him to really come around).
Parra's stupidly undervalued right now -- people were sweating him when he got run in the rotation but now that his stats are out of whack (5.40 ERA, 1.85 WHIP), everyone wants to bail on him. Realistically, he's young, so you have to expect him to struggle some, but he's also been unlucky in that he's "allowing" a .361 BABIP so far in 2008. Optimistically too, he's K'ing more than a batter per inning; he needs to get his walks down...
He did not pitch well that week. And frankly, he did not pitch well for several weeks. But four of his last five starts have suddenly been pretty freaking good.
He got shelled at Washington with seven hits and six earned runs -- the fifth start. But in the other four, he has racked up over 25 innings pitched while only allowing three earned runs and striking out 24.
If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on Edinson Volquez right now. Okay, actually, there are actually a few reasons why you don't want to move him. His sparkling ERA (1.12), coupled with his six wins (tied for second in the bigs) and 57 K's in 48 innings have made him a valuable fantasy commodity.
But, as is often the case, things are not all that they seem. Reality tells us that there are several factors working against Volquez' current success, and that makes him a superb sell high option.
First, his stats. A 1.12 ERA and a 10.61 K/9 ratio are wonderful. But there are some other mitigating factors to those numbers. His WHIP (1.26) is actually higher than his ERA. That's not obscenely shocking, but it does indicate some luck. As does his ERA when compared to his 4.84 BB/9.
Both of those numbers tell us that he is frequently allowing baserunners, but not letting them score. And that checks out perfectly with his 90.8 strand rate, 20% above the big league norm. In other words, some of these guys getting on base are going to start scoring more frequently.
I've always been one for letting my employer decide when I'm no longer capable of doing my job, but Eric Gagne and Jason Isringhausen apparently feel differently, being "honest" enough to let their managers know they're no longer worthy of the closer role. (Update: Gagne can apparently close again!) Either way, not a lot of confidence. What they did is rare in the sense of being voluntary, but it certainly underlies the basic fantasy notion that saves are easy to come by.
In Milwaukee, if you're looking for saves, you actually love Gagne flip-flopping; Ned Yost will probably go back to the well with him, and you'll have an easier time going after the guy who will probably end up getting the saves. Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota and David Riske are the official closer by committee. (The reality is they shouldn't have let Francisco Cordero walk, but that's neither here nor there at this point). I've been saying that Riske is my guy since early in the season, but in fairness, he hasn't pitched perfectly. Then again, neither has Torres, so I'm sticking by my guns here and saying Riske ends up with the most saves in the Milwaukee pen this year (unless Yost does something cr-r-r-r-azy and puts Carlos Villanueva in the spot).
The Cardinals end of things appears to be a little more cut and dry, in the sense that Ryan Franklin is the new go-to guy from the bullpen in St. Louis. Russ Springer and Randy Flores are apparently in the mix as well to a degree, but when you look at Springer's walk count -- five! -- since Izzy went down, it's hard to imagine Tony La Russa trusts him. Plus, Franklin is actually locking down the ninth. And the guy you want to grab for your fantasy league.
Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.
Aaron Harang is a bonafide upper-echelon fantasy pitcher, and when owners get through the first week of May with a 1-5 pitcher whom they landed in the early rounds ... well, they start to get angry and impatient. A desperate, disillusioned owner is a vulnerable owner in the trade market, so it's time to swoop in. Pull all your usual smooth-talking tricks. You don't have to pull a George Costanza ("do that thing you do, where you lie to everybody," says Jerry), but you can allow emphasis on cons while conveniently forgetting about the pros if the owner is complaining.
As I said, he's 1-5. His team sucks, and the run support he's receiving is embarrassing. After Tuesday night's eighth outing, Harang had surrendered 19 earned runs, while his team had only scored 23 (five of which were in one game which happened to be his only bad outing, so you can see there's bad luck at play as well).
Bet on the luck changing -- thus altering his record positively -- and everything else to remain the same.
New Studs takes a look at players ready to make the leap from "possibly productive fantasy player" to "must-have fantasy stud." This is not a "you've never heard of this dude, but ... " series -- these should be names you already know.
Coming into the season, I was as skeptical as anyone -- being a Cubs fan -- concerning Geovany Soto's breakthrough 2007 campaign. Prior to 2007, Soto had only 25 career jacks in nearly 1600 at-bats in the minors. He never OPSed higher than 750, and his career minor league batting average was .262.
Of course, in 2007 he absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League with a .353 average, 1076 OPS, 26 HRs, and 109 RBIs in only 110 games. He even crushed the ball in the show once he was recalled to the tune of a 1048 OPS with five bombs and 23 RBI in only 28 games.
So we knew he was capable, but what about consistency (you know Joe Morgan was worried about it)? 2007, after all, could easily have been an outlier instead of a breakthrough campaign. We've seen fluky seasons before.
It wasn't one of those, though. It was a beginning.
This is news I didn't think I'd be reporting this season, and it's most certainly something I didn't think would happen in June. This is nothing short of miraculous. After all the setbacks Mark Mulder has experienced, he might start this weekend in Kansas City for the Cardinals. As reported in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
On his second at-bat of the game tonight, 
If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on 
I've always been one for letting my employer decide when I'm no longer capable of doing my job, but 
Fantasy Felony
New Studs
