Fantasy FanHouse

Mark Mulder to Start Saturday?

Matt Snyder — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 14:28:00 EST

Filed under: Cardinals, NL Central, MLB Injuries, Injury Report, Fantasy MLB, MLB Waiver Wire

This is news I didn't think I'd be reporting this season, and it's most certainly something I didn't think would happen in June. This is nothing short of miraculous. After all the setbacks Mark Mulder has experienced, he might start this weekend in Kansas City for the Cardinals. As reported in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Tonight's outing is considered a tuneup more than a full-blown start, suggesting the Cardinals have made a decision but will wait to see how Mulder exits the appearance before confirming his return to the major leagues.

"It depends on how it goes. We're not really putting a day on it," general manager John Mozeliak said.

Asked when Mulder would start, Mozeliak said, "We'll know that by Tuesday."

So he's going tonight for Triple-A Memphis, and unless his arm falls off he could be inserted into the rotation? After everything that we've been reading up to this point, it's an absolutely stunning revelation. I'm still skeptical that he's physically okay. I mean, just a month ago we thought he'd never pitch again because they had no idea what was wrong with the shoulder. Now he's ready to pitch in the bigs? C'mon.

Fantasy Spin: Don't bother. There's no way he'll hold up over the course of the season. Even if he somehow does, he's been completely ineffective in triple-A, compiling a 13.50 ERA in 13 1/3 innings of work. He's only punched out eight, while he's allowed 28 hits en route to a horrifying 2.48 WHIP. If that's what the minor leaguers were doing the major leaguers (yes, even the Royals) will tattoo him.

Mark Mulder to Start Saturday? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 23 Jun 2008 14:28:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Alfonso Soriano Could Miss Up to Six Weeks

Matt Snyder — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 23:00:00 EST

Filed under: Chicago, Cubs, NL Central, MLB Injuries, Injury Report, Fantasy MLB, MLB Waiver Wire

On his second at-bat of the game tonight, Alfonso Soriano was beaned on the left wrist. ESPN just reported that he has a mildly displaced fracture of the fourth metacarpal. Translation: broken hand. He's reportedly out six weeks.

This is a blow to the Cubs, but hardly devastating. He's a stud and has been hitting as well as anyone in the everyday lineup, but the team is loaded with capable hitters and he's a defensive liability. They dealt without him for two weeks earlier in the season and played quite well, going 9-5.

For the Cubs, several guys will benefit playing-time wise. The options are plentiful thanks for the versatility of the bench and Mark DeRosa. Mike Fontenot or Ronny Cedeno can play second base while DeRosa shifts to LF. Micah Hoffpauir -- sure to get the call from triple-A -- will get some looks in LF as well. Finally, should Lou Pinella decide to stray from his CF platoon, Reed Johnson can play left while Jim Edmonds stays in center. There won't be an everyday lineup. Musical chairs is more like it.

Fantasy Spin: Soriano can't be replaced by anyone on the waiver wire, but you have to stash him on your bench and try to make do as best you can. None of the Cubs spare parts listed above that would be free agents (should be everyone but DeRosa) are worth owning because they won't play full time.

Take a look at Luke Scott, Lastings Milledge, or Adam Jones; for example. Just like I said earlier today with Pujols, this has to suck if you own him.

I do recommend shopping him, especially if there is a Cubs homer in your league. The team is playing so well now our fans are likely to have delusions of grandeur in any deal involving one of "our own." You can probably be a bit felonious here.

Specific lineup/trade questions? Hit us up.

Alfonso Soriano Could Miss Up to Six Weeks originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 23:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Phat Albert Scaring People -- Just Not His Opposition for Once

Matt Snyder — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 15:30:00 EST

Filed under: Cardinals, NL Central, Injury Report, Fantasy MLB

Albert Pujols collapsed with an injured calf Tuesday night, much to the chagrin of Cardinals fans and Phat Albert's fantasy owners alike.

Now, the latest news is that he'll miss at least three weeks due to the injury.

Chris Duncan was already recalled from Triple-A Memphis and was in Pujols' spot at first base against the Reds.

We should see Pujols placed on the DL very soon and then it's a waiting game. I'm sure we'll hear more in the coming weeks as to the severity and a possible timetable for the big man's return.

Fantasy Spin: Look, I don't have to tell you how good this man is. For my money, he's the best player in baseball. Not only is he currently the heart and soul of the St. Louis franchise, but he was also your first round fantasy draft pick. You can't replace him. You will have to try by working the waiver wire for someone like Kevin Millar, Carlos Delgado (who is heating up), Adam LaRoche, or even Duncan. It sucks, doesn't it? Going from Pujols to Millar sounds as enticing as a shot to the groin.

You could try to shop Pujols to an owner that believes this is a minor injury, but it's murky now with the "at least three weeks" stamp placed on him. You don't want to move him for 50 cents on the dollar only to see him return raking in July. I'd have to recommend holding him and sucking it up with a lesser 1B for a bit. As always, you can email us for specific advice on your squad.

Non-Fantasy and totally personal spin: I can't say this bothers me!

Phat Albert Scaring People -- Just Not His Opposition for Once originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 15:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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New Old New Stud: Kid K Is All Grows Up -- More Dominant Than Ever

Matt Snyder — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Cubs, NL Central, MLB New Studs, Fantasy MLB

Kerry Wood turns 31 next Monday. It was once thought by his 31st birthday that he'd have racked up all kinds of accolades by now. So he's old and a disappointment by those standards.

More recently it was thought he'd be out of baseball by now. So he's a feel-good story by that standard.

Most of all, though, he is absolutely filthy on the mound right now.

I remember on May 1st, after Wood blew a save against the Brewers, one of my friends texted me and asked when the Cubs would remove Wood from the closer duties. It actually prompted me to write this. Sure, it was probably somewhat wishful thinking -- but I just had this feeling. The makeup he has on the hill teamed with his size and ability to throw nearly 100 MPH along with the maturity and character he's built up through all the trying injury-riddled years just had "stud closer" written all over it to my biased eyes. I have never been more happy to be correct.

Since that blown save on the first of May, he has been lights out. He's been better than Carlos Marmol.

The numbers are insane. He's appeared in 20 games, saving 14 of them (14 saves in a month is an 84 save season pace, by the way). In 20 1/3 innings, he's struck out 27 batters and walked only four. His ERA has been 0.89 and the WHIP shows as 0.74 for this stretch. His only issue has been hitting batters -- three of his four have sparked rallies that blew saves -- but he's made the proper changes to solve it recently.

From watching him, I'm seeing a 2004 Eric Gagne-like swagger as he comes to the hill. He knows the game is over. It was all on display for the national audience Sunday night in L.A. when Wood followed his more-hyped understudy with better stuff. While Marmol's been hitting 91-94 on the gun with his heat recently, Woody's been torching it to the tune of 95-98. Team that with the increased control of his nasty slider, and he's punching out more guys than Kimbo Slice claims to.

What's missing? Well, I'd like to see a signature entrance like Hoffman's Hells Bells or Rivera's Enter Sandman (Gagne's Welcome to the Jungle back in his hay-day was perfect as well). I have a suggestion: Stone Cold Steve Austin's theme music.

Just picture it ... the glass breaks, the crowd goes wild, and a burly, goateed Texan stomps out with a glare of intimidation; ready to mow down anyone in his path.

Sound familiar?

~~New~~ ~~Old~~ New Stud: Kid K Is All Grows Up -- More Dominant Than Ever originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Jay Bruce, Perfect in Every Way, Even Talks About Sample Sizes

Will Brinson — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:15:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, MLB Gossip, MLB Media Watch, Cincinnati, Fantasy MLB

Jay Bruce has taken the baseball world by storm. He is hitting .450 plus, with three home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.5 K/BB rate plus two stolen bases. In 46 at bats. So, more or less, the only way he could be more perfect is if he understands the importance of certain statistical evaluations. And, of course, he does.

No surprise, Bruce is getting the last laugh. Heading into this season, in many circles he was considered baseball's best positional prospect. Yet, a start that included 16 hits in 30 at-bats is an attention grabber, no matter what the expectation.

Asked to explain his Red-hot start, Bruce said simply "Sample size."

Picture me blushing in awkward man-love admiration. Because that's, um, not what I am doing. Anytime a baseball player starts talking about BABIP or sample sizes it is awesome to find out that we have, as dak at FJM said, a "dude who gets it" on our hands.

Perhaps the best irony -- and maybe I am stretching it by wanting to think that Bruce believes nerdilicous statistical evaluations -- is that he has Dusty Baker as a manager. And Dusty does stats like Charlie does surf. Or Bruce does slump.

Fantasy Spin: Keeper leagues all hold on as tightly as possible to Bruce. Seasonal leagues may want to consider selling because, as you can see above, even Bruce knows this pace can't continue. And right now, you can get a pretty sickner bounty for him.

Jay Bruce, Perfect in Every Way, Even Talks About Sample Sizes originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Quick, Before Anyone Notices, Go Pick Up Manny Parra

Will Brinson — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Brewers, NL Central, Milwaukee, Fantasy MLB

Manny Parra has always been a talented young lefthanded arm in the Brewers organization. He has struggled for the early part of this season though, particularly with his walks, and more particularly with his BABIP. As you may recall, I was bullish on Parra's chances earlier this year (although it's taken some time for him to really come around).

Parra's stupidly undervalued right now -- people were sweating him when he got run in the rotation but now that his stats are out of whack (5.40 ERA, 1.85 WHIP), everyone wants to bail on him. Realistically, he's young, so you have to expect him to struggle some, but he's also been unlucky in that he's "allowing" a .361 BABIP so far in 2008. Optimistically too, he's K'ing more than a batter per inning; he needs to get his walks down...

He did not pitch well that week. And frankly, he did not pitch well for several weeks. But four of his last five starts have suddenly been pretty freaking good.

He got shelled at Washington with seven hits and six earned runs -- the fifth start. But in the other four, he has racked up over 25 innings pitched while only allowing three earned runs and striking out 24.

That is good for nearly a batter per inning, including a career high eight in his last start against the Diamondbacks. Parra's numbers for the season don't reflect a particularly strong effort, but his numbers over the last month do reflect a young prospect really starting to come into his own, a la Yovani Gallardo last season.

Split wise, he is dominating lefties (2.19 ERA) and killing it at home (2.90 ERA, 3-0). So that's something to consider as well. But the bottom line is that there should be room for Parra somewhere on your team before everyone else starts to figure out that he is dealing.

Quick, Before Anyone Notices, Go Pick Up Manny Parra originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start

Will Brinson — Thu, 15 May 2008 01:00:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on Edinson Volquez right now. Okay, actually, there are actually a few reasons why you don't want to move him. His sparkling ERA (1.12), coupled with his six wins (tied for second in the bigs) and 57 K's in 48 innings have made him a valuable fantasy commodity.

But, as is often the case, things are not all that they seem. Reality tells us that there are several factors working against Volquez' current success, and that makes him a superb sell high option.

First, his stats. A 1.12 ERA and a 10.61 K/9 ratio are wonderful. But there are some other mitigating factors to those numbers. His WHIP (1.26) is actually higher than his ERA. That's not obscenely shocking, but it does indicate some luck. As does his ERA when compared to his 4.84 BB/9.

Both of those numbers tell us that he is frequently allowing baserunners, but not letting them score. And that checks out perfectly with his 90.8 strand rate, 20% above the big league norm. In other words, some of these guys getting on base are going to start scoring more frequently.

Factor in his home park/bandstand alongside his 2.8% HR/FB ratio, and it becomes clear that more balls will be leaving the park soon as well. And finally, he is a rookie. Even with Dusty Baker managing -- and that might actually make it worse -- he is going to get tired later in the season and/or reach a preset innings ceiling, greatly limiting his value, especially in H2H leagues.

Justin Verlander lost is seventh game on Wednesday. The chances of him going 4-24 on the season are about as high as Volquez going 24-4. If it's a hitter you're looking for, Cincy teammate Adam Dunn is a nice possibility, given is stinkjob to start the season. Or maybe Corey Hart, with only one tater on the year thus far. The other owner is going to know that you're trying to sell Volquez high, but I'd be willing to bet that anyone owning those player is at least willing to listen to a straight up swap.

Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 15 May 2008 01:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Always Be Closing: Take Me Out, Coach

Will Brinson — Tue, 13 May 2008 12:30:00 EST

Filed under: Brewers, Cardinals, NL Central, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Fantasy MLB, MLB Always Be Closing

I've always been one for letting my employer decide when I'm no longer capable of doing my job, but Eric Gagne and Jason Isringhausen apparently feel differently, being "honest" enough to let their managers know they're no longer worthy of the closer role. (Update: Gagne can apparently close again!) Either way, not a lot of confidence. What they did is rare in the sense of being voluntary, but it certainly underlies the basic fantasy notion that saves are easy to come by.

In Milwaukee, if you're looking for saves, you actually love Gagne flip-flopping; Ned Yost will probably go back to the well with him, and you'll have an easier time going after the guy who will probably end up getting the saves. Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota and David Riske are the official closer by committee. (The reality is they shouldn't have let Francisco Cordero walk, but that's neither here nor there at this point). I've been saying that Riske is my guy since early in the season, but in fairness, he hasn't pitched perfectly. Then again, neither has Torres, so I'm sticking by my guns here and saying Riske ends up with the most saves in the Milwaukee pen this year (unless Yost does something cr-r-r-r-azy and puts Carlos Villanueva in the spot).

The Cardinals end of things appears to be a little more cut and dry, in the sense that Ryan Franklin is the new go-to guy from the bullpen in St. Louis. Russ Springer and Randy Flores are apparently in the mix as well to a degree, but when you look at Springer's walk count -- five! -- since Izzy went down, it's hard to imagine Tony La Russa trusts him. Plus, Franklin is actually locking down the ninth. And the guy you want to grab for your fantasy league.

Always Be Closing: Take Me Out, Coach originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 13 May 2008 12:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap

Matt Snyder — Wed, 07 May 2008 00:15:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.

Aaron Harang is a bonafide upper-echelon fantasy pitcher, and when owners get through the first week of May with a 1-5 pitcher whom they landed in the early rounds ... well, they start to get angry and impatient. A desperate, disillusioned owner is a vulnerable owner in the trade market, so it's time to swoop in. Pull all your usual smooth-talking tricks. You don't have to pull a George Costanza ("do that thing you do, where you lie to everybody," says Jerry), but you can allow emphasis on cons while conveniently forgetting about the pros if the owner is complaining.

As I said, he's 1-5. His team sucks, and the run support he's receiving is embarrassing. After Tuesday night's eighth outing, Harang had surrendered 19 earned runs, while his team had only scored 23 (five of which were in one game which happened to be his only bad outing, so you can see there's bad luck at play as well).

Bet on the luck changing -- thus altering his record positively -- and everything else to remain the same.

All Harang's numbers are in line outside of the W-L column (which we know is not a quality indicator of the value of a starting pitcher in the long run) are very solid. He's punched out 48 in eight starts, while sporting a 3.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10; yet he's being overshadowed in fantasy circles by Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. For the rest of this season, Harang is a much more reliable option. It ain't close. With the young guys you'll get inconsistency and the possibility of hitting a wall late in the season when the innings count gets up there into unprecedented territory. Harang is a thoroughbred ... going 210+ innings in each of the last three years and 230+ in the last two. That's why he's among the league leaders in Ks each year and will continue to be.

Look, the Reds offense hasn't been good by any stretch, but with good hitters throughout the order (Junior, Dunn, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Keppinger, and hopefully Jay Bruce eventually) there is no reason to believe Harang's run of poor fortune will continue.

Harang's doing his job, and the Reds' offense should start doing theirs.

You need to do yours and trade for him at this record low price.

Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 07 May 2008 00:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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New Stud on the Block: Geo on Fire

Matt Snyder — Mon, 05 May 2008 23:30:00 EST

Filed under: Cubs, NL Central, MLB New Studs, Fantasy MLB

New Studs takes a look at players ready to make the leap from "possibly productive fantasy player" to "must-have fantasy stud." This is not a "you've never heard of this dude, but ... " series -- these should be names you already know.

Coming into the season, I was as skeptical as anyone -- being a Cubs fan -- concerning Geovany Soto's breakthrough 2007 campaign. Prior to 2007, Soto had only 25 career jacks in nearly 1600 at-bats in the minors. He never OPSed higher than 750, and his career minor league batting average was .262.

Of course, in 2007 he absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League with a .353 average, 1076 OPS, 26 HRs, and 109 RBIs in only 110 games. He even crushed the ball in the show once he was recalled to the tune of a 1048 OPS with five bombs and 23 RBI in only 28 games.

So we knew he was capable, but what about consistency (you know Joe Morgan was worried about it)? 2007, after all, could easily have been an outlier instead of a breakthrough campaign. We've seen fluky seasons before.

It wasn't one of those, though. It was a beginning.

What happened? Well, he grew up and learned the game in addition to shedding a ton of excess baggage ... the kind that you carry in the love handles region. He came into the Cubs farm system at age 18 from San Juan, Puerto Rico and attempted to grow into the game throughout his first six minor league seasons with little success at the plate. In season seven he showed up 20 pounds lighter and was now an experienced age 24.

After his late season and playoff -- he hit the only Cubs home run in the NLDS -- performances the Cubs decided to completely hand the reins of catcher to the power-hitting 25 year-old and he has not disappointed. Monday night he dropped his sixth bomb of the season while going 3-3 total ... raising his team-leading average to .352 in the process.

And he's not just getting the stats, he's absolutely stinging balls. Having the pleasure to watch him everyday, it's evident that last year was no joke. Other than the eight-strikeouts-in-a-row disaster in Washington, he's been raking all season even when he gets out. I can remember at least three balls in week 1 in Wrigley that would have been homers had the crisp Wrigley wind not been screaming in.

Finally, there's this: he's a catcher. You know how many fantasy catchers I'd rather have than Soto right now? One. Russell Martin, and only because he steals bases -- and I'll tell you what: that gap is closing with Martin only having two swipes to this point. There's no way Geo's a sell-high candidate because he's still underrated. I'd guess right about now you'll find people that would rather own Victor Martinez (only 1 homer), Joe Mauer (no HRs or steals), Brian McCann (actually, I'd accept this argument), and Jorge Posada if he was healthy (not healthy and not young).

Just as Stanley said when he was selecting a partner in The Office's sales calls episode:

"I'll take the kid."

You do the same, if there's a way to get him with his current owner attempting to sell high ... especially in keeper leagues. He's only 25, and the windy city skyline is the limit.

New Stud on the Block: Geo on Fire originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 05 May 2008 23:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Yovani Gallardo Has a Torn ACL, Likely Out for the Rest of the Season

Will Brinson — Fri, 02 May 2008 15:15:00 EST

Filed under: Brewers, NL Central, MLB Injuries, Milwaukee, Injury Report, MLB Dynasty Diaries, Fantasy MLB

Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep breaths, Brewers fans and fantasy owners. Yovani Gallardo is headed to the 15 day disabled list with a torn ACL that he suffered during yesterday's game against the Cubs. And 15 days is something you might be praying for in a few hours/days when the team makes the call on whether or not he'll have surgery.

Because real life is a bear, I was not able to watch the game. Fortunately, we have video after the jump -- the commerical is only eight seconds long. And as Snyds was able to watch the game, because he makes millions off of TGSOE, he relayed that after the ridiculous fall that Gallardo took, he never hit more than 85 mph on the gun, 78 with offspeed stuff. Yeah, that's right. He went back out on the mound after this.

Again, yes, he went back out on the mound yesterday. In fact, the Brewers somehow thought he was fine until this morning, when they sent him to a doctor. (I am absolutely shellshocked at this medical/managerial behavior right now, by the way.)

An examination in Milwaukee this morning revealed Gallardo suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in that collision with Chicago's Reed Johnson near first base in the fifth inning. He was placed on the 15-day DL and right-hander Dave Bush was recalled from Class AAA Nashville to replace him.

No decision will be made on surgery until the swelling subsides in Gallardo's knee. But he in all likelihood will miss most if not all the rest of the season, a severe blow to the Brewers' chances in 2008.

Hey, Ned Yost: just quit it, man. Word is that everyone who saw that play immediately thought "Wow! Yovani could be dunbar for the season". And yet, you let, no, sent him back out to pitch. Same with Sheets on the rain delay. Seriously, just stop it. Not that he wasn't already going to be injured, but you're putting careers on the line, and for what? Two innings of work? It's inexcusable. This stinks for the Brewers. Badly.

Fantasy Spin: Hey, Ned, my hand hurts from punching the wall. Think I should hop back on the keyboard? Or maybe see a doctor? Or even just sit the rest of the afternoon out? Gallardo is probably out for the season, meaning you can drop him in all seasonal leagues. No chance he comes back and is effective this year after that type of injury, especially when you consider that he will likely have two surgeries -- one on each knee -- within the course of two months. Keeper leagues are in one hell of a nightmare (I have him in one, actually, hence the rage) because the guy is a future ace/stud, in theory. If you have him cheap in an auction or late in a draft, you have to think about holding, but it's a looong time until next April. I'd try to move him while we wait to hear about the surgery, but hold off on dropping him until then.

Yovani Gallardo Has a Torn ACL, Likely Out for the Rest of the Season originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 02 May 2008 15:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Always Be Closing: Wood Blows Another

Matt Snyder — Fri, 02 May 2008 00:21:00 EST

Filed under: Cubs, NL Central, Fantasy MLB, MLB Always Be Closing

This picture could have been from one of four different games this year. It wasn't supposed to be this way.

I just wanted to let you know before you visit all the (OTHER) big-name fantasy or real sports engines across the internet, though, that the Cubs are not going to change closers anytime soon.

Nope, those know-it-all types are all wrong in this situation. They will inundate you with information you already knew. You know, all those stats that tell you Carlos Marmol is a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. You'll see strikeout numbers, hear non-stat based arguments, and be reminded about how much better a closer Marmol would be.

Blah blah blah freaking blah.

Here's the problem: Those people aren't talking about what's important. Telling someone that Marmol is a better pitcher than Wood these days is like saying you'd rather have Jay Bruce than Corey Patterson ... only a complete moron would dispute it (oops, sorry Dusty). Everyone that follows baseball knows this. It's no secret, and it wasn't one before the season started.

But the people who are telling you the Cubs are about to make the switch to Marmol are wrong. Plain and simple.

Why? Two reasons. Yeah, just two ... but they are big-time reasons:

1. The rest of the bullpen outside Marmol downright sucks presently. You ask those people -- by the way, I'm writing this at night and I'm expecting a deluge of fantasy writers' posts on the "impending change" as soon as Friday morning but certainly before next week -- how the ball gets to Marmol in the Cubs/Brewers contest Thursday if he's the closer? Big Z was gassed in the 7th, so Marmol took over and got five outs -- only yielding a bunt single while striking out four -- leading up to the ninth. So if Marmol is the closer, you get a dose of Bob Howry and Kerry Wood for five outs. Guess what? You have the same problem, only now it's earlier in the game and you haven't gotten to use your best reliever when you actually had a lead. If I'm Lou Pinella (God I wish I was), I'd much rather tell Wood: "We need three outs before they score two runs," than go through the 7th and 8th wondering how the hell I'm getting to Marmol with a lead.

2. In this month's edition of the Cubs' team magazine, Vine Line, Pinella was asked about the closing situation and he said this:

... Your setup people have a lot more wear and tear than your closer, at times. They're up and down; they might have to pitch more than one inning. With Kerry making this transition to the bullpen after just a half year, we thought we could protect his arm a bit better in the closer's spot.

So there you have it. Lou likes Kid K as the closer because he won't have to throw more than one inning and it can protect his arm in the long run. Marmol threw more than an inning today, by the way, just to reaffirm the above quote.

Fantasy Spin:

If you need saves, stick with Wood -- or go with another team. The official "closer" role isn't getting changed anytime soon. If you need a reliever with sick Ks, ERA, and WHIP ... well ... Marmol's probably already owned. He is the better option, but you already knew that.

Always Be Closing: Wood Blows Another originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Fri, 02 May 2008 00:21:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Quick Hit: Tejada Rejuvenated?

Matt Snyder — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 11:12:00 EST

Filed under: Houston, Astros, NL Central, MLB Value Machine, Fantasy MLB

Miguel Tejada went from a fantasy fave to a pariah in one season. No one wanted him where he really should have been drafted. His ADP (average draft position to the fantasy novices out there) proves as much. He was falling into the 60-range in many drafts. I took him as a late-thirties pick in one draft with Derek Jeter still on the board and got destroyed by a few owners.

Just look at the downsides:

- He suffered through full-season career lows in several offensive categories, including HR, RBI, R, and SB.
- For the first time in seven seasons he did not play all 162 games (in fact, he only played in 133).
- He was named in the Mitchell Report, so apparently he has to stay clean now and performance will be impacted in the power categories. You know, because they can test for HGH so easily.
- In a recent development we found out that he's actually 33 years old and not 31.

Of course, Miggy is out to a scorching start ... .370, 4 HRs, 18 RBIs, and 16 Runs in only 21 games. He's never come even close to his current .630 slugging percentage.

In light of all this, people are proclaiming him a sell-high candidate. What do I think?

Some people insist on splitting a pair of kings against a dealer's shown five or six in blackjack because they could win two hands instead of one. My thought was always, "why mess with a winner?" What is the point of playing fantasy sports if you have to bail on a guy every time he's hot? This isn't Chris Shelton (a nice plug for our new Fantasy FanHouse feature -- Stud or Shelton). All signs pointed to a bounce-back for Miggy this season for those paying attention -- until we saw he was two years older than we thought. Still, 33 isn't old. You know who else is 33? Jeter. So he's not old.

As I mentioned earlier, last year was the first time in memory he didn't play every game. If you are willing to take a leap with me that it was an aberration, here's what his prorated numbers for a 162-game 2007 look like: 88 runs, 99 RBI, 22 HR, and a .296 average. So he doesn't suck.

Let's look at the transition from team to team. Camden Yards is a very solid hitter's park, but so is Enron (I know it has a new name, by the way) -- as long as you are a right-handed pull hitter like Miggy. That's a push as far as I'm concerned. Consider the recent traditional increase in stats by players in the first year when they move from the American to National League, then realize how much easier it is to hit NL Central pitching than AL East. I'm confident in predicting an upsurge in his numbers in light of this. Plus, his lineup last year at Baltimore didn't even remotely compare to having Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee as power-mates. He can hit third and have incredible protection or fifth and have a billion ribbie opportunities. So he should improve upon last year's numbers.

If you want to sell high on guy that's hitting 74 points higher than last season and slugging almost 200 better, well, that's getting the most bang for your buck ... unless the stigma of everything I listed earlier clouds prospective buyers. I still don't think you can full value for him, as evidenced by my colleague telling me he may land Tejada for Julio Lugo and Clay Buchholz (non-keeper league) today. That's insane.

For the record, his home run pace is 30 and I like him to maintain -- if not exceed -- that. He's not going to prison this season for perjury, either. The court system doesn't work that swiftly. I do think there's still a stigma, though, and I know Miggy's going to hit like a stud all season.

As with a pair of cowboys in blackjack, I'll stand.

Fantasy Quick Hit: Tejada Rejuvenated? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 23 Apr 2008 11:12:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Kids Are Alright: Remember, Corey Patterson Is Not Good

Will Brinson — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:00:00 EST

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, MLB Kids Are Alright, Fantasy MLB

When Dusty Baker announced his impending reign of terror, he did so with great authority. He mandated that Joey Votto stop looking at so many pitches (even if they were bad) and he immediately sent top prospect and future of the organization Jay Bruce back down to Triple-A. Understandable, certainly, because Dusty had Corey Patterson on his roster.

Yes, by "understandable", I do in fact mean "certifiably and irrationally stupid". Bruce was the consensus number one prospect in all of baseball in 2007 and seemed nearly assured of the starting centerfield job in Cincy. Anyway, I hate to be overtly optimistic, much less to trust the mad (cow disease ridden?) brain of Mr. Baker, but I think there's a pretty good chance we see Bruce back in a Reds uniform within the next few weeks.

Why? Because Corey Patterson stinks, that's why. Yes, he started off hot, but as my good friend Mr. Greber pointed out in a new series of articles today, so did Chris Shelton. Now, he's batting .183 and not clogging up the bases to the tune of a .254 OBP. Congratulations, everyone. (The insane thing is that he has four home runs. Just weird.)

Bruce, meanwhile, is putting up numbers (.333/.348/.561) with three home runs and four stolen bases in just 16 games at Louisville. The best part, Dusty? Only two walks. That's right. You don't even have to tell him to swing more! Look, the point of all this Dusty-dogging and Patterson-bashing isn't to point out how silly the Reds organization was for signing him to coach the team (not entirely anyway).

The point is to tell you, the fantasy owner, what a steal you could be getting on Jay Bruce right now. The kid is a masher, he's ready for the majors and sooner or later, Dusty is going to have to cave and let him on the field at the major league level. You either need to a) pick him up and stash him now or b) make a play for him from another owner before it's too late. Bruce is the future, and if there's anything the Reds should learn from the way Votto, Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez are currently playing, it's that the future is now.

Kids Are Alright: Remember, Corey Patterson Is Not Good originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Quick Pitch: Milwaukee Brewmasters

Will Brinson — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:30:00 EST

Filed under: Brewers, NL Central, Fantasy MLB

As noted by Lackey and E, respectively, there are things happening in the Brewers' rotation this week. Yovani Gallardo is on the way in (right now, actually) and Ben Sheets might be on the way out. Milwaukee is a stout offensive team, so you absolutely want to be concerned for who is manning their rotation from a fantasy perspective.

Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo whiffed batters at an 8+ K/9 last year but has not pitched, until today, in 2008. This means he might be undervalued already. No question about it though -- if he's available, you go pick him up ASAP. He needs to cut down on his walks and fly balls allowed from 2007, but he has all the skills to be a future ace and a dominant fantasy pitcher, as shown by his one earned run against the Reds in his first start back last night, before Eric Gag-ned it.

Ben Sheets
Even after experiencing tightness in his right triceps, Sheets is sitting quite pretty at 3-0, with 24 K's in 28 innings and a ridiculous 0.96 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. He's as much Mike Tyson as he is Glass Joe (he also has a .183 BABIP, fwiw), so you have to think about dealing him if you get someone interested, particularly in a 2:1 to upgrade. It's probably best, especially in H2H leagues, to sit him this week as his status is up in the air.

Manny Parra
Parra's stupidly undervalued right now -- people were sweating him when he got run in the rotation but now that his stats are out of whack (5.40 ERA, 1.85 WHIP), everyone wants to bail on him. Realistically, he's young, so you have to expect him to struggle some, but he's also been unlucky in that he's "allowing" a .361 BABIP so far in 2008. Optimistically too, he's K'ing more than a batter per inning; he needs to get his walks down but he's a great two start option with the Cards and Marlins on tap this week.

Fantasy Quick Pitch: Milwaukee Brewmasters originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Dirt McGirt Rides Again!

Will Brinson — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Houston, Astros, NL Central, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Injuries, MLB Media Watch

When Lance Berkman left the Astros' game today with a neck injury (spasms, one would assume he's fine, panicky fantasy owners) that meant that off season signing and diiiiirty, hard nosed, old school OBP goat Darin Erstad was going to play first base. Erstad, of course, is not a great baseball player. Anymore than I was a "great" soccer goalie because I used to dive every time a ball got near the 18 yard line.

But regardless, Erstad, who interestingly was a punter in college, came into the game and because he's so freaking gritty and hardnosed, immediately spurred the Astros to a five run seventh inning, based simply on is presence in the lineup. Or at least that's what you'll be reading in some newspapers over the next few days. Erstad is beloved by old school sportswriters, all of whom think he "plays the game the right way."

The injury probably doesn't mean much, especially since the Astros still lost to the Cubs today, but if you enjoy ridiculously funny satirical writing, you should get your Fire Joe Morgan RSS feed rolling -- Erstad's continued presence in the lineup spurs on anti-statistical sports journalism almost as badly as when David Eckstein ~~commits an error~~ takes a ball of his chest. And with Erstad going two for two and the Astros scoring runs in bunches, you can almost guarantee it.

Bonus Fantasy Spin: Berkman is an "OPS hog" (which might be my favorite term in all of fantasy sports) and he's slipped in drafts a bit this year because of the perception that he's aging. That's true, but he's still going to rake. A slow start (sample size alert!) coupled with this neck injury, which reeks of "lingering", make him a nice buy low right now. Please don't add Erstad.

Dirt McGirt Rides Again! originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Major League Mongering: Bronson Arroyo for Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Pat Lackey — Thu, 19 Jul 2007 13:15:00 EST

Filed under: Atlanta, Braves, Reds, NL East, NL Central, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Rumors, Cincinnati

Major League Mongering will look at players rumored to be on the move between now and the July 31st pseudo-trade-deadline.

The Braves are in second place and bearing down on the Mets despite a rotation that's giving lots of starts to Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Chuck James, Andrew Lerew, and Jo-Jo Reyes. It's all very un-Braves-like if you ask me. While most of those guys haven't been awful, it's pretty safe to assume that the Braves would like to add a veteran arm to solidify that rotation before the July 31st deadline.

Buster Olney wrote in his blog yesterday that a rumor was passed his way that the Braves were inquiring about Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo (Olney link is Insider only, sorry). Arroyo would be a guy that would make a lot of sense for the Braves. He eats up innings like crazy and he's got plenty of experience in pressure packed post-season pitching, having been with the Red Sox from 2003-2005. Add in the fact that he's had a pretty poor first half and the Braves may be able to prod Cincy to sell low on him, and you've got yourself the making of a deadline deal.

What might he bring back? Olney speculates that the Reds would ask for no less than Jarrod Saltalamacchia to finish the trade, and that's believable as well. The Reds have the makings of a strong rotation with Arroyo, and Aaron Harang, as well as Homer Bailey on the cusp of breaking out, and I doubt Wayne Krivsky would break that core up cheaply. The Braves are known to be shopping Salty because they've already got Brian McCann behind the plate and he's not going anywhere. The Braves would have to decide if getting Arroyo into the rotation is worth pressing forward with Scott Thorman and Julio Franco at first base (where Salty's been getting a lot of reps lately).

What other teams are interested? I haven't seen Arroyo's name linked to anyone else, but if he were known to be available I think a number of other contenders might come knocking. Just about every single rebuilding team in the league is asking the Braves about Saltalamacchia though, since he's one of the best catching prospects in baseball. The Braves will likely get a lot of good offers for him.

Should fantasy owners care? Well, neither one of these two guys are widely owned by fantasy players at the moment, but a trade would boost both their values by a good amount. Salty would be playing every day and Arroyo would be on a contender that would get him some run support. Both would be worth picking up for a stretch run if this trade goes down.

Olney link via MLB Trade Rumors

Major League Mongering: Bronson Arroyo for Jarrod Saltalamacchia originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Thu, 19 Jul 2007 13:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Matt Capps Is the Pirates' New Closer

Pat Lackey — Sat, 02 Jun 2007 14:19:00 EST

Filed under: Pirates, NL Central, Fantasy Baseball, Pittsburgh

In a move that likely only concerns you if you're a fantasy baseball player or a Pirate fan, the Pirates announced before their game against the Dodgers last night that Matt Capps would be replacing Salomon Torres as closer, effective immediately. Jim Tracy swears it has nothing to do with Torres' four blown saves this year:

"I don't feel like Salomon did a bad job as closer," Tracy said. "But the flip side is that he has shown he can go greater distances, get multiple outs, and his resiliency is stronger than where Matt's would be. Let's face it: The problem getting through the seventh inning and getting back to those guys has been our biggest issue."

So if you're a fantasy player that owns Torres (and if you are, I feel bad for you, I'll assume you're in a deep league and it's not your fault), should you pick up Capps? Or if you need relief help, is Capps your answer?

Honestly, I'm not so sure. He's got great numbers this year with his 3.07 ERA and his 1.09 WHIP, but he got beaten around pretty good in May to the tune of a 5.40 ERA. Still, he's got fantastic control (of his six walks this year, four are intentional). He's also very durable; he made 85 appearances as a rookie last year and he's on pace for 93 this year. I suppose the real question is how many saves a guy can pick up as the closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Or, you know, if his arm will fall off after 180 appearances in his first two big league seasons.

Photo Credit: Getty Images

Matt Capps Is the Pirates' New Closer originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Sat, 02 Jun 2007 14:19:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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