Fantasy Oakland

As Watson noted earlier, there has been a fairly decent seismic shift in the National League Arms Race, what with the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden only 24 hours after the Brewers picked up CC Sabathia. And just like it affects real baseball, the trade does some things for fantasy owners as well. So, why not look at the four biggest names in the trade?

Rich Harden, SP -- I've said it once, and I'll say it again: sell high on Harden. Billy Beane rarely gets suckered and this deal kind of looks like one of those times, no? Which makes me think "ruh-roh" with regard to Harden's health. Especially when you remember that during his last start in an Oakland uni, he was barely topping 90 mph. But his move to one of the most offensively potent teams and a World Series contender should boost his value in theory, making him a prime sell.

As Watson noted earlier, there has been a fairly decent seismic shift in the National League Arms Race, what with the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden only 24 hours after the Brewers picked up CC Sabathia. And just like it affects real baseball, the trade does some things for fantasy owners as well. So, why not look at the four biggest names in the trade?

Rich Harden, SP -- I've said it once, and I'll say it again: sell high on Harden. Billy Beane rarely gets suckered and this deal kind of looks like one of those times, no? Which makes me think "ruh-roh" with regard to Harden's health. Especially when you remember that during his next to last start in an Oakland uni, he was barely topping 90 mph. But his move to one of the most offensively potent teams and a World Series contender should boost his value in theory, making him a prime sell.

The Fantasy FanHouse team will occasionally debate pre-draft topics for your perusement, amusement and...something else that rhymes with those two words. Today's topic: If you could choose where you'd be drafting in a ten team league, which pick would you choose and why?

Matthew Greber: Alright, so let's start off at the point that was so ably teased by Snyder in the last Roundtable -- if you could choose what draft pick you had, which one would you take?

If folks don't mind, I'm going to suggest that we assume it's a 10-team league which seem to be the most prevalent.

We actually have had this rule in my main league for awhile -- or, we did. Folks with the #1 "pick" could then choose what draft pick they actually got. In practice, it pretty much went that the #1 guy would take the first pick, and so on down the ladder with very little variety. So, we scrapped it. But I'm thinking that if we still had it in place, that wouldn't be the same this year. At least it wouldn't be so for me.

Cause if I have my choice, sure -- I'll take LaDanian Tomlinson with the first pick. But if someone else snags the #1 slot, I'd prefer #10 to anything else. I'll take two of Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch there and be just as happy as I would be with LDT and whoever is left at #20 and #21.

Fantasy FanHouse: What say you?

Will Brinson: I want, in order: 1,2,3 and then 10,9,8; essentially I want top three or a bottom pick. I think deciding which of Jackson/Gore/Westbrook is too risky a proposition if I'm being handed the choice of where to start, especially considering it waters down your second round pick.

Hence, I either want top three (LT, Addai, Peterson) or I want to end up in the bottom. The end of the first round is especially attractive this year, because I think QBs and WRs will get taken in the first and second rounds more than normal (certainly Brady, Peyton and Moss will be gone by pick 10 or 12 and I've seen some places where Wes Welker -- WELKAH!!! -- went in the second round).

Because of that, I think that the end of round one affords you the ability to pick up two quality running backs -- Lynch and Grant are two I certainly have my eye on -- and still land a reasonably highly ranked WR at the end of the third round.

MG: I'd love to hear an argument for the middle of the round -- it's generally a nice place to be because you wait the least amount of time between picks. But yeah, unless I'm in a league where I specifically want to draft Peyton, Brady or Moss, I'm with you wanting the bookend picks. Grant and Lynch at the end, especially since it seems that Lynch isn't going to miss anytime despite being behind the wheel for a DUI hit and run, are really nice RBs to snare at the turn.

Welker going that early is awesome. Somehow I think that league is based in Bahstin. Off the top of my head I can name ten WR I'd want before him, but that's probably another roundtable topic.

On Sunday night, for the first time in the history (which spans multiple decades, and I'm only 26) of my fantasy playing, I traded for Rich Harden. I feel like I got a good deal, and he came with Felix Hernandez, but it occurred to me yesterday morning that, "Holy Crap. I just traded for a season-long red cross."

Yes, I am slow on the uptake.

The point though, is not to tell you to trade for him. Quite the opposite, in fact. The point is, that if I, as a skeptic of Harden the fantasy player, am willing to allow him to become part of a deal, then he has sufficiently reached some sort of level where there is a chance the general public thinks he might stay healthy.

And right now, you can get some good value back for him too.

For instance, Aaron Harang has stunk the joint up so far this year. It's pretty likely his owner wants to move him. Would a straight up Harang for Harden trade work? Most certainly; you could even possibly (likely?) persuade the other owner into sweetening the deal because of Harang's struggles. Harang is rocking a high BABIP and a heavier reliance on his slider. Additionally, he's allowing tons of line drives and far fewer ground balls as of right now.

The principle of this trade remains simple: regardless of how much Harang turns around his season, it will be better than the time that Harden spends on the disabled list.

To get you ready for draft season, Fantasy FanHouse will be running through each major league team, covering lineups, rotations and sleeper/busts.

Meet the ...
The Rebuilders. I was going to make some type of Moneyball joke but that seems absurd. Almost as absurd as anyone that thinks Billy Beane's strategy doesn't work. Ridiculous. However, because Beane's methods involve using little money the A's are cheap, this is a team that looks pretty bare on the surface. But there's fantasy talent to be found, and it can be found cheaply.

The Breakout
Daric Barton has a healthy lead on Dan Johnson (whose mancrush I just can't quit for some reason) on the first base job for this year. And probably for a much longer time than that. Barton hit 13 taters total last year, but four of them were in just 72 at bats during his cup of coffee, but the premium he provides is in his average stats. His back-to-back .389 OBP seasons in 2006 and 2007 at Sacramento make him a pretty desirable (and cheap! my favorite combination) option for most leagues. Keepers especially.

The Bust
Jack Cust came out hot last year because he just absolutely crushes the ball and he hit the scene on a tear. (And this a tough spot -- Rich Harden is just way too easy and no one that could "bust" is getting taken high enough in fantasy drafts ... ahem, Eric Chavez). The longball is sexy, and he can, in fact, mash the hell out of it. But he is streaky as all get out and his average is going to stink. Oh yeah, and he was listed on that little Congressional thing. Anyway, he probably won't be highly sought after, but then again, there won't be many A's starters that are. I'd steer clear of Cust.

In the book Pro Football Prospectus, of which I am a co-author, we try to predict the stats for every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end in the league. To do that accurately, we have to know what role those players will play on their teams. And the Raiders present a particularly challenging case, because it's nearly impossible to figure out who's going to be catching the passes in Oakland.

Yesterday the Raiders signed Travis Taylor, adding him to a receiving corps that already had Ronald Curry, Jerry Porter, Alvis Whitted, Mike Williams, Doug Gabriel, Johnnie Morant and rookies Johnnie Lee Higgins and Johnathan Holland. Does anyone have a clue who's going to start out of that group? For that matter, do we know the starter on the Raiders' crowded depth chart at tight end?

I think Curry will earn one of the starting jobs, and I guess Porter is probably the favorite for the other one, and rookie tight end Zach Miller seems like a possibility to start as well, but does anyone really have any idea? The Raiders used the first overall pick on JaMarcus Russell, and he should be developing a rapport with his receivers. But which receivers?