Fantasy FanHouse

Fantasy Spin: Harden to the Cubbies

Will Brinson — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:59:00 EST

Filed under: Oakland

As Watson noted earlier, there has been a fairly decent seismic shift in the National League Arms Race, what with the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden only 24 hours after the Brewers picked up CC Sabathia. And just like it affects real baseball, the trade does some things for fantasy owners as well. So, why not look at the four biggest names in the trade?

Rich Harden, SP -- I've said it once, and I'll say it again: sell high on Harden. Billy Beane rarely gets suckered and this deal kind of looks like one of those times, no? Which makes me think "ruh-roh" with regard to Harden's health. Especially when you remember that during his last start in an Oakland uni, he was barely topping 90 mph. But his move to one of the most offensively potent teams and a World Series contender should boost his value in theory, making him a prime sell.Chad Gaudin, RP/SP -- Gaudin pitched very well when he was in the Oakland rotation, but got bumped back to the bullpen. It's assumed he'll do the same in Chicago, but are so confident he can't beat out Jason Marquis for a rotation spot? Because I sure think he can. In terms of available fantasy guys in this deal, he's the one I'm taking a flier on.

Sean Gallagher, SP -- Gallagher has to be the lynchpin for Beane, right? As Peter Gammons said, the Cubs liked -- and were "nearly sold on" -- Gallagher as a starter. But as good as Ryan Dempster has been, they need a true number two and Gallagher's not that. So maybe Beane thinks he's going to be great. Which makes me think he's worth a gamble in deeper fantasy leagues.

Matt Murton, OF -- I've never hated Murton as much as it seems Cubs fans and the organization did. He always seemed like a smart baseball player that had sleeper written all over him. He might not set the world on fire in Oakland, but you gotta think he's gonna play at least (as opposed to Chicago). I'm taking a gamble.

Fantasy Spin: Harden to the Cubbies originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:59:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Spin: Harden to the Cubbies

Will Brinson — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:00:00 EST

Filed under: Chicago, Oakland, Athletics, Cubs, MLB Transactions, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB

As Watson noted earlier, there has been a fairly decent seismic shift in the National League Arms Race, what with the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden only 24 hours after the Brewers picked up CC Sabathia. And just like it affects real baseball, the trade does some things for fantasy owners as well. So, why not look at the four biggest names in the trade?

Rich Harden, SP -- I've said it once, and I'll say it again: sell high on Harden. Billy Beane rarely gets suckered and this deal kind of looks like one of those times, no? Which makes me think "ruh-roh" with regard to Harden's health. Especially when you remember that during his next to last start in an Oakland uni, he was barely topping 90 mph. But his move to one of the most offensively potent teams and a World Series contender should boost his value in theory, making him a prime sell.

Chad Gaudin, RP/SP -- Gaudin pitched very well when he was in the Oakland rotation, but got bumped back to the bullpen. It's assumed he'll do the same in Chicago, but are so confident he can't beat out Jason Marquis for a rotation spot? Because I sure think he can. In terms of available fantasy guys in this deal, he's the one I'm taking a flier on.

Sean Gallagher, SP -- Gallagher has to be the lynchpin for Beane, right? As Peter Gammons said, the Cubs liked -- and were "nearly sold on" -- Gallagher as a starter. But as good as Ryan Dempster has been, they need a true number two and Gallagher's not that. So maybe Beane thinks he's going to be great. Which makes me think he's worth a gamble in deeper fantasy leagues.

Matt Murton, OF -- I've never hated Murton as much as it seems Cubs fans and the organization did. He always seemed like a smart baseball player that had sleeper written all over him. He might not set the world on fire in Oakland, but you gotta think he's gonna play at least (as opposed to Chicago). I'm taking a gamble.

Fantasy Spin: Harden to the Cubbies originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Roundtable: What Pick Do You Want?

Matthew Greber — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 13:34:00 EST

Filed under: Oakland

The Fantasy FanHouse team will occasionally debate pre-draft topics for your perusement, amusement and...something else that rhymes with those two words. Today's topic: If you could choose where you'd be drafting in a ten team league, which pick would you choose and why?

Matthew Greber: Alright, so let's start off at the point that was so ably teased by Snyder in the last Roundtable -- if you could choose what draft pick you had, which one would you take?

If folks don't mind, I'm going to suggest that we assume it's a 10-team league which seem to be the most prevalent.

We actually have had this rule in my main league for awhile -- or, we did. Folks with the #1 "pick" could then choose what draft pick they actually got. In practice, it pretty much went that the #1 guy would take the first pick, and so on down the ladder with very little variety. So, we scrapped it. But I'm thinking that if we still had it in place, that wouldn't be the same this year. At least it wouldn't be so for me.

Cause if I have my choice, sure -- I'll take LaDanian Tomlinson with the first pick. But if someone else snags the #1 slot, I'd prefer #10 to anything else. I'll take two of Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch there and be just as happy as I would be with LDT and whoever is left at #20 and #21.

Fantasy FanHouse: What say you?

Will Brinson: I want, in order: 1,2,3 and then 10,9,8; essentially I want top three or a bottom pick. I think deciding which of Jackson/Gore/Westbrook is too risky a proposition if I'm being handed the choice of where to start, especially considering it waters down your second round pick.

Hence, I either want top three (LT, Addai, Peterson) or I want to end up in the bottom. The end of the first round is especially attractive this year, because I think QBs and WRs will get taken in the first and second rounds more than normal (certainly Brady, Peyton and Moss will be gone by pick 10 or 12 and I've seen some places where Wes Welker -- WELKAH!!! -- went in the second round).

Because of that, I think that the end of round one affords you the ability to pick up two quality running backs -- Lynch and Grant are two I certainly have my eye on -- and still land a reasonably highly ranked WR at the end of the third round.

MG: I'd love to hear an argument for the middle of the round -- it's generally a nice place to be because you wait the least amount of time between picks. But yeah, unless I'm in a league where I specifically want to draft Peyton, Brady or Moss, I'm with you wanting the bookend picks. Grant and Lynch at the end, especially since it seems that Lynch isn't going to miss anytime despite being behind the wheel for a DUI hit and run, are really nice RBs to snare at the turn.

Welker going that early is awesome. Somehow I think that league is based in Bahstin. Off the top of my head I can name ten WR I'd want before him, but that's probably another roundtable topic.
WB: At least ten -- and it was an experts league, actually. On the other hand, I would say that there is a legitimate argument for a middle round pick, if only because QBs will go so early. First of all, a middle round pick likely nets you your choice of an second or third tier running back (worst case is you reach for someone you like better that's ranked lower). Then, on the wrap, you can either take a second running back, in the likely event that one you wants drops to you.

Or, alternately, you can reach a little and take an upper echelon wide receiver. By doing that, of course, you then need to target a two distinct groups for your third and fourth picks. One being WR's you want (tier them, of course) and RB's you want (same). If one of the top wideouts drops to you a three, you pick him up and go after someone like Michael Turner in the fourth, Jonathan Stewart a little earlier in the fourth or fifth, etc.

It's a riskier proposition, but it's one that's usually best employed with a middle round selection, when you can see how the rosters around you are shaping up, and you don't have to suffer through 9+ picks to see if someone drops each round.

Matt Snyder: Yeah, I'd definitely keep the top pick so you control your own destiny. I also love the wrap/snake pick rounds because you get to pick two dudes in a row. Yeah, it sucks to wait through 19 to 31 picks -- depending on league size -- but if you are planning on taking a WR and a QB in rounds 4 and 5, for example, you don't have to worry about doing the whole, "ok, he has a QB, so he won't take his backup yet ... but what if he does? do I grab Matt Hasselback now?" dance.

If I didn't keep first, I'd drop to ten for this reason and the reasons we've covered above. You can swing two quality RBs. Call me archaic, but I still firmly believe the team in your league that wins it is going to be the one with the most reliable RBs. It's harder to find them now than in the past, and there's a much higher chance you pick the wrong guy, but I'm still taking two and hoping to be smart/lucky.

It's worth mentioning here, with the discussion on when to take QBs cropping up in these discussions, that I have a friend that swears up and down if you are going to take Brady or Manning in the 1st round you have to do it in the top 3-4 picks. The rationale is that your 3rd round pick is early and you can hope to get two quality RBs behind the QB. We've still never see anyone try it, so it's not battle tested ... but it's a thought.

MG: That QB theory isn't terrible...IF you think that it's LDT and A-Pete and then everyone else is in the same category. I think we all agree that in some order, Addai, S-Jax and Westbrook are the next tier. So in my mind, I'm not taking a QB until at least the 6th pick (and then only if I want one of those two guys, and really this year only Tom Brady is a risk to go that high). Your friend's strategy is really looking too far forward, I think -- it's a first round pick based on the THIRD round. Because if you wait until the 5th or 6th pick to take that QB (and certainly one of those two, probably both, are sitting there at that pick), then you get a better RB in the 2nd round than if you'd drafted the QB in the 3rd or 4th slot. It's really a question of who is still there in the 3rd round. And my experience tells me that I am consistently suprised by who slides into the 3rd round in terms of RB2...now, granted, last year that got me Cedric Benson, but that's not the point - last year, Benson was - erroneously - considered a fine pick at RB2. So, I'm not taking a QB with the 3rd or 4th pick if Joe Addai or Steven Jackson are sitting there instead.

Sounds, though, like we are all in agreement - we want a top 2 or 3 pick, or the 9th or 10th pick. That leaves five slots (4-8) that none of us want...which means we have to start thinking about strategies for those slots...since the odds are just as good we'll get those picks as they are that we'll get the ones we want.

Thanks, guys, for yet another good Roundtable. We'll be back in awhile with yet another topic!

Fantasy Roundtable: What Pick Do You Want? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 01 Jul 2008 13:34:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Do as I Say, Not as I Do: Please Trade Rich Harden

Will Brinson — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:00:00 EST

Filed under: Oakland, Athletics, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

On Sunday night, for the first time in the history (which spans multiple decades, and I'm only 26) of my fantasy playing, I traded for Rich Harden. I feel like I got a good deal, and he came with Felix Hernandez, but it occurred to me yesterday morning that, "Holy Crap. I just traded for a season-long red cross."

Yes, I am slow on the uptake.

The point though, is not to tell you to trade for him. Quite the opposite, in fact. The point is, that if I, as a skeptic of Harden the fantasy player, am willing to allow him to become part of a deal, then he has sufficiently reached some sort of level where there is a chance the general public thinks he might stay healthy.

And right now, you can get some good value back for him too.

For instance, Aaron Harang has stunk the joint up so far this year. It's pretty likely his owner wants to move him. Would a straight up Harang for Harden trade work? Most certainly; you could even possibly (likely?) persuade the other owner into sweetening the deal because of Harang's struggles. Harang is rocking a high BABIP and a heavier reliance on his slider. Additionally, he's allowing tons of line drives and far fewer ground balls as of right now.

The principle of this trade remains simple: regardless of how much Harang turns around his season, it will be better than the time that Harden spends on the disabled list.

Other options are available too. Dustin McGowan and C.C. Sabathia looked like great buy lows until their recent complete game shutouts, but another bad outing and a strong one by Harden could make something like that happen quickly.

Regardless, right now you can target pitchers that are down on their luck by using Harden as bait. If you believe -- bear in mind, you really shouldn't -- and enjoy risk, then hold onto him. But the smart move is to get something in return before it's too late. Because after all, he's an ace. When he's healthy.

Do as I Say, Not as I Do: Please Trade Rich Harden originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Preview: Oakland Athletics

Will Brinson — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 22:16:00 EST

Filed under: Oakland, Athletics, Fantasy Baseball

To get you ready for draft season, Fantasy FanHouse will be running through each major league team, covering lineups, rotations and sleeper/busts.

Meet the ...
The Rebuilders. I was going to make some type of Moneyball joke but that seems absurd. Almost as absurd as anyone that thinks Billy Beane's strategy doesn't work. Ridiculous. However, because ~~Beane's methods involve using little money~~ the A's are cheap, this is a team that looks pretty bare on the surface. But there's fantasy talent to be found, and it can be found cheaply.

The Breakout
Daric Barton has a healthy lead on Dan Johnson (whose mancrush I just can't quit for some reason) on the first base job for this year. And probably for a much longer time than that. Barton hit 13 taters total last year, but four of them were in just 72 at bats during his cup of coffee, but the premium he provides is in his average stats. His back-to-back .389 OBP seasons in 2006 and 2007 at Sacramento make him a pretty desirable (and cheap! my favorite combination) option for most leagues. Keepers especially.

The Bust
Jack Cust came out hot last year because he just absolutely crushes the ball and he hit the scene on a tear. (And this a tough spot -- Rich Harden is just way too easy and no one that could "bust" is getting taken high enough in fantasy drafts ... ahem, Eric Chavez). The longball is sexy, and he can, in fact, mash the hell out of it. But he is streaky as all get out and his average is going to stink. Oh yeah, and he was listed on that little Congressional thing. Anyway, he probably won't be highly sought after, but then again, there won't be many A's starters that are. I'd steer clear of Cust.

The Lineup
Travis Buck, RF
Mark Ellis, 2B
Eric Chavez, 3B
Daric Barton, 1B
Jack Cust, DH
Chris Denorfia, CF
Bobby Crosby, SS
Kurt Suzuki, C
Emil Brown, LF

The Rotation
Joe Blanton, RH
Rich Harden, RH
Chad Gaudin, RH
Lenny DiNardo, LH
Justin Duchscherer, RH

The Bullpen
Huston Street, CL
Alan Embree, SU
Kiko Calero, SU

The Skinny
Crosby and Harden are would-be studs that either won't put it together or are always injured. If you have bench options, take fliers on them. Buck could play the role of sleeper, as could Suzuki at catcher, where you can get wait until really, really late to take him. Street is an elite level closer, but the A's offensive situation gives worry to how many opportunities he'll actually get. Still, a worthy mid round pick if he falls. Blanton is a solid starter but his second half last year is worrisome. You want to pick up Barton as mentioned above. It's tough to expect too much out of any of the A's -- or at least Oakland as a team -- but you can definitely squeeze value out of this squad by waiting to see who falls and filling gaps in your lineup with their unknown youngsters.

Fantasy Preview: Oakland Athletics originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 19 Mar 2008 22:16:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Who Will Catch JaMarcus Russell's Passes in Oakland?

Michael David Smith — Wed, 23 May 2007 13:14:00 EST

Filed under: Raiders, Fantasy Football, Oakland, NFL Free Agency

In the book Pro Football Prospectus, of which I am a co-author, we try to predict the stats for every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end in the league. To do that accurately, we have to know what role those players will play on their teams. And the Raiders present a particularly challenging case, because it's nearly impossible to figure out who's going to be catching the passes in Oakland.

Yesterday the Raiders signed Travis Taylor, adding him to a receiving corps that already had Ronald Curry, Jerry Porter, Alvis Whitted, Mike Williams, Doug Gabriel, Johnnie Morant and rookies Johnnie Lee Higgins and Johnathan Holland. Does anyone have a clue who's going to start out of that group? For that matter, do we know the starter on the Raiders' crowded depth chart at tight end?

I think Curry will earn one of the starting jobs, and I guess Porter is probably the favorite for the other one, and rookie tight end Zach Miller seems like a possibility to start as well, but does anyone really have any idea? The Raiders used the first overall pick on JaMarcus Russell, and he should be developing a rapport with his receivers. But which receivers?

Who Will Catch JaMarcus Russell's Passes in Oakland? originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Wed, 23 May 2007 13:14:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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