Fantasy Sunday Wrap Up

Man, what an absolute stink-bomb by the Colts offense yesterday. Peyton Manning throws two picks, zero touchdowns, and only racks up 125 yards against the Browns' sorry defense. Joseph Addai only nets 57 yards on the ground, and loses a fumble. Obviously, the receivers all sucked, due to Manning's poor day. At least the defense came through with a big effort, which cleared the path to a team victory. That's really all that matters to them, but for fantasy owners it could have been a devastating blow with playoff spots on the line.

The key for owners of Manning, Addai, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark is to take a deep breath and realize this was an aberration. The weather wasn't exactly ideal -- as you could see on the missed field goals -- and it won't be a factor again. The Colts play the hapless Bengals and Lions at home in the next two weeks, and then head to Jacksonville.

Two inside games, and one in Florida? Sounds good to me. I'm quite confident in the Colts offense to light up fantasy scoreboards, especially in the next two weeks.

Yeah, we were right about Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Matt Forte, Warrick Dunn, Anquan Boldin, Brian Westbrook, the Bears D/ST, and a bevy of others. I also nailed my hail mary running back pick of Darren McFadden. The reading public doesn't love that, though. It's not popular. As Joe Posnanski pointed out recently, the internet police come out in full forces to "get you" when you make mistakes. Being a fantasy football analyst carries significant risk, because it's such an unpredictable beast in nature. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves of that fact.

Yesterday was a particularly rough day, personally. In a comment on my kicker rankings someone called me a "loser." It stung, but not because of the specific intent. I couldn't care less if someone wants to ex post facto get on the rankings and try to make themselves feel better by firing a cowardly internet shot. Furthermore, coming after me for a kicker ranking, upon which I made a sound argument? C'mon.

The reason it stung was the timing. We missed on a lot this weekend. Let's sort through the biggest offenders, and see what was real and what was an aberration.

Matt Cassel - In last week's writeup, I said he is not a stud. I was wrong. I'm fully jumping aboard the Cassel bandwagon. Two straight weeks with over 400 yards passing against worthy defenses sold me. Pittsburgh is a steep test this weekend, but Cassel's a no-brainer fantasy starter down the stretch against Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona. I'm talking QB1 in all leagues.

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

Hey, I'm with you. I want to scream today as I hear the name, "Lee Evans." He was in my active lineup on two different teams gathering a nice and plump goose-egg. What's funny about fantasy sports is how we end up hating guys about whom we normally wouldn't bat an eye, and most of the time it's not even their fault. Evans barely even got targeted last night because Trent Edwards was overly quick in checking down through his progressions. He was terrified to throw the ball downfield, which, I guess, is what throwing three picks early in the game will do to you.

Either way, I still don't want to give up on Evans. The Bills face the Chiefs, Niners, Dolphins, Jets, and Broncos for the rest of the fantasy season, and that's hardly a murderer's row of pass defenses. If the offensive line can get any sort of pass protection for Edwards -- and they should, considering the running game from last night should attract attention -- Evans will begin slipping through secondaries again.

Entering the season, it likely wouldn't have shocked people if you told them the Patriots quarterback would throw for 400 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets in Week 11. Of course, that was when golden boy Tom Brady was at the helm.

But Matt Cassel?

Seriously? He even threw in 62 rushing yards for good measure.

He's coming around, but he's not a weekly fantasy starter. He's most certainly not a stud. The Patriots were forced to throw the football all game because of their lackluster backfield talent teamed with the Jets ferocious run defense. Cassel attempted 51 passes, which was 13 higher than his previous season high. He's usually in the low 30s when it comes to passing attempts.

With Sammy Morris regaining his health, I expect the Patriots to play more ball control football in the next few weeks. Don't get me wrong, Cassel's a fine start in good matchups -- like Week 14 in Seattle. It's just that when he plays the Steelers in Week 13 you don't want to use him. When he plays the Raiders in Week 15, the Pats will be tearing up the silver and black on the ground instead of passing. Etc.

Don't get overzealous, because he's still not Tom Brady.

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

What we saw this past weekend in Oakland was a mind-boggling shift in value for several guys on one team, both up and down.

Jake Delhomme was atrocious. He completed only seven passes to his own team while heaving four picks. His 72 yards passing for the game was 21 less than Jay Cutler achieved on one play ... and the Panthers were playing the Raiders. His value will never get any lower.

Steve Smith only caught one pass for nine yards, as he was locked up all day by Nmamdi Asomugha. His value can't get much lower.

Jonathan Stewart was banged up and only gained 21 yards on seven carries. He's losing carries to DeAngelo Williams, so his value is also really, really low right now.

That brings us to Williams, who -- just as we said he would -- ran all over the Raiders for 140 yards and a breakaway 69 yard score. The value won't get any higher for Williams.

The Panthers face the hapless Lions this week, so you'd expect an uptick from Delhomme, Smith, and Stewart without a Williams letdown.

I haven't done a good job of hiding my love for Brandon Jacobs this season, and I don't plan to start doing so anytime soon. He's a beast, and even a solid run defense like the Eagles crumbles when he's barreling down upon them. We now have nine weeks in the books, and Jacobs has only had one bad game. He's on pace for 1432 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, after scoring nine times in the past seven games.

While others are scared by the presence of Derrick Ward and Ahmed Bradshaw alongside Jacobs in the Giants' backfield, I realize those two actually help him. He's not going to wear down -- he's only averaging 17 carries per game, but gaining 5.3 yards per carry. You can also count on the Giants have a lot of leads to protect, which means they'll be keeping the ball on the ground to keep that clock running and the chains moving. The overwhelming majority of the goal-line touches are his as well.

Basically what I'm saying is that even when you see the Baltimore Ravens on Jacobs' schedule, you needn't bother sitting him. Yes, I know the Steelers held him down in a similar defensive scheme to the Ravens. Even more reason he'll come out with a vengeance, as far as I'm concerned.

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

Brady Quinn has never started an NFL game. He's only appeared in one, completing only three of eight passing attempts for 45 yards.

And I'll guarantee you he's the hottest waiver wire add this week in fantasy football. He may even have been rostered in many leagues (only six percent in fleaflicker leagues, though), but now the guy who did own him thinks he's struck fantasy gold.

Can he measure up?

The Browns do have some explosive options at receiver, even if they have issues with dropping balls or staph infections. They have a quality offensive line to provide protection for the youngster, and Jamal Lewis is an established feature back. The offense just put up its fair share of points against a really solid Baltimore Ravens defense, though they were missing personnel in the defensive backfield.

Also, don't discount the learning Quinn did while holding a clipboard for a season and a half, not to mention the built up proverbial fire in the belly. He's a competitor, and he's always been thought of as a smart QB.

Switching running backs from an aging has-been to a rookie with really high potential was obviously the right move, and Ken Whisenhunt pulled that trigger this week. Tim Hightower took Edgerrin James' job as the feature back for Arizona, and he ran wild with it. Whisenhunt couldn't have chosen a better time to make the switch, either, knowing that their opponent this week was the St. Louis Rams ... the same team that sports the league's 30th ranked run defense.

Hightower was likely already rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues, but now his trade value is absolutely sky-high. You may think you are being a true visionary to deal him high immediately, but check out that schedule. He should have his way with the Niners and Seahawks in his next two contests. Then would be your time to sell. Hold him for now, and in two weeks he'll have three stellar games under his belt. He'll also be looking at a remaining schedule of Giants, Eagles, Rams, Vikings, and Patriots. Other than the Rams contest, there won't be many running lanes in the other games.

We loved Roddy White coming into the season. The rationale was simple, he was a stud last year with Joey Harrington et al throwing to him. Whenever Matt Ryan got comfortable in the NFL, White would enjoy even better numbers. Well, it's happening right before our very eyes.

In four of the last five games, White has scored at least one touchdown and accrued over 100 yards receiving. In the other, he nabbed seven catches for 90 yards. While Ryan is still finding a comfort level in the NFL, he's likely to lean more heavily on the receivers he trusts. He obviously trusts White, as the majority of his targets head that way.

In my weekly rankings, I welcomed Lee Evans into the elite echelon of fantasy WRs, and now I'm doing the same to White. These two join Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, and Santana Moss as guys you can never, ever bench.

So, welcome, Roddy, you may now celebrate with a back-flip.

Strange things happen in fantasy football on a weekly basis. No matter how perfect your team looks, there's always a wild card that can disrupt everything. Sometimes, you just have to take your lumps and move onto the next week. I mean seriously, do you really think that Dan Orlovsky is going to nearly triple the fantasy production of Peyton Manning each week? Deep sigh, if you were starting Peyton yesterday, as I was.

Well, no matter how much we study the matchups, absorb knowledge and/or think we just know ... flukes can happen. It's your job to observe such freak bust-outs and flops, then monitor each situation as it relates to your team. Of course, you can always grab the latest sexy waiver wire wonders right here each week. And you can grab value information to digest on whether a certain performance was a fluke or going to be a reality moving forward.

That said, let's take a look at a few All-Star lineups that were probably crushed by a few odd, maybe even fluke performances in Week 7.