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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Don't Worry about Peyton Manning and the Colts

Matt Snyder — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Man, what an absolute stink-bomb by the Colts offense yesterday. Peyton Manning throws two picks, zero touchdowns, and only racks up 125 yards against the Browns' sorry defense. Joseph Addai only nets 57 yards on the ground, and loses a fumble. Obviously, the receivers all sucked, due to Manning's poor day. At least the defense came through with a big effort, which cleared the path to a team victory. That's really all that matters to them, but for fantasy owners it could have been a devastating blow with playoff spots on the line.

The key for owners of Manning, Addai, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark is to take a deep breath and realize this was an aberration. The weather wasn't exactly ideal -- as you could see on the missed field goals -- and it won't be a factor again. The Colts play the hapless Bengals and Lions at home in the next two weeks, and then head to Jacksonville.

Two inside games, and one in Florida? Sounds good to me. I'm quite confident in the Colts offense to light up fantasy scoreboards, especially in the next two weeks.

Other Reality Checks

Matt Cassel - We warned you last week about this bad game, and he made good on our promise. Now you have to look forward, and you can expect a return to being a starting fantasy quarterback. The Seahawks do not pose any hint of resistance through the air.

Brandon Jackson - He's not the starter, but Ryan Grant got hurt and Jackson benefited from the playing time. I tell you what, though, Jackson looks like he's a better runner. He's got a bit more burst, and I love how his center of gravity is much lower than Grant's. Keep an eye on this situation, because Jackson could be a nice X-factor -- if he gets the job -- for your fantasy team down the stretch.

Steven Jackson - He's back, and he looked very solid. He wasn't spectacular, but the Dolphins have a good run defense. With Arizona, Seattle, and San Fran on the slate for the next three weeks, Jackson is going to be a force in the playoffs -- assuming he doesn't have a setback this week. Of course, you likely aren't a Jackson owner in the playoffs, considering he was a first-rounder.

Gus Frerotte - You expecting a 99-yard touchdown pass and a rushing score every week? I thought not.

Oakland pass defense - The Raiders have been routinely handcuffing opposing pass offenses for the past month. It would be easy -- because the team sucks -- to just see "vs. OAK" next to a player and get all excited. I'll just say this, I would not be one bit excited to use Philip Rivers as my QB1 next week, especially if it's the first week of your playoffs.

Patriots backfield - It's hard to run on the Steelers defense -- or do anything on them, for that matter -- but Sammy Morris got the goal line carry, averaged 4.5 yards per, and had the most carries. He's going to be the man moving forward on the ground, and the Pats have three favorable running matchups coming up.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Don't Worry about Peyton Manning and the Colts originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Monday Reality Check: Humbling Week Serves Up a Reminder

Matt Snyder — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 10:31:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Yeah, we were right about Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Matt Forte, Warrick Dunn, Anquan Boldin, Brian Westbrook, the Bears D/ST, and a bevy of others. I also nailed my hail mary running back pick of Darren McFadden. The reading public doesn't love that, though. It's not popular. As Joe Posnanski pointed out recently, the internet police come out in full forces to "get you" when you make mistakes. Being a fantasy football analyst carries significant risk, because it's such an unpredictable beast in nature. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves of that fact.

Yesterday was a particularly rough day, personally. In a comment on my kicker rankings someone called me a "loser." It stung, but not because of the specific intent. I couldn't care less if someone wants to ex post facto get on the rankings and try to make themselves feel better by firing a cowardly internet shot. Furthermore, coming after me for a kicker ranking, upon which I made a sound argument? C'mon.

The reason it stung was the timing. We missed on a lot this weekend. Let's sort through the biggest offenders, and see what was real and what was an aberration.

Matt Cassel - In last week's writeup, I said he is not a stud. I was wrong. I'm fully jumping aboard the Cassel bandwagon. Two straight weeks with over 400 yards passing against worthy defenses sold me. Pittsburgh is a steep test this weekend, but Cassel's a no-brainer fantasy starter down the stretch against Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona. I'm talking QB1 in all leagues.

The Jets offense - Shame on us for trusting the Titans defense at home, huh? Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles, and Leon Washington made some owners pay for benching them. Don't make that mistake again, because the upcoming schedule is Charmin soft. The Jets offense equals a fantasy paradise at this point.

Randy Moss - Ok, Randy, I get it. You have been disrespected. I'll put you back in the elite echelon of wideouts.

Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith - When you have two straight weeks of crap against subpar defenses, you tend to lose my trust. I'm not even slighty apologetic for recommending to sit Delhomme. I wouldn't trust these two much moving forward, with the possibe exception of Week 15 against the Broncos. The only thing is, you can gash Denver via the run, and that's really how Carolina wants to beat you. So, yeah, I think this was an aberration.

LaDanian Tomlinson - Colts defense without Bob Sanders, and Tomlinson doesn't go for 30+ fantasy points? Welcome to 2008. He's no longer in the discussion for the top fantasy player. Not even close.

Reggie Wayne - While he's been quite inconsistent this year, he's too good a player in a good offense facing some bad defenses coming up. Seriously, keep playing him. Do you really want to bench Reggie freaking Wayne against the Browns, Lions, or Bengals? I thought not.

Trent Edwards - Yeah, everyone saw that coming (I really hope you noted the sarcasm). The only thing he had going for him was an awful opposing defense -- but he had that last week and sucked.

Michael Turner - We actually didn't think he was a bad start. There were lots of worse options. Of course, we didn't think he was gonna go all Al Bundy against a team that had only allowed five rushing touchdowns all season.

Chad Pennington - Four total touchdowns against the Patriots was nice. Facing the Rams, Bills, Niners, and Chiefs the rest of the fantasy season is nicer. Get ahold of him if you still can.

Jason Witten - He's obviously still hurt, so hopefully you have alternative options.

Jamal Lewis - I'm about ready to just give up on all Browns. When you can't muster any offense against the Houston Texans, well, that is just plain embarrassing.

Panthers D/ST - Did someone say embarrassing? Wow.

Finally, Tom Herrera and I would like to apologize to Lynn in Lafayette for urging her to start Ronnie Brown over DeAngelo Williams. We owe you something, Lynn. Not sure what, though.

Monday Reality Check: Humbling Week Serves Up a Reminder originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 24 Nov 2008 10:31:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Value Machine: Do Not Give up on Lee Evans Just Yet

Matt Snyder — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:05:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

Hey, I'm with you. I want to scream today as I hear the name, "Lee Evans." He was in my active lineup on two different teams gathering a nice and plump goose-egg. What's funny about fantasy sports is how we end up hating guys about whom we normally wouldn't bat an eye, and most of the time it's not even their fault. Evans barely even got targeted last night because Trent Edwards was overly quick in checking down through his progressions. He was terrified to throw the ball downfield, which, I guess, is what throwing three picks early in the game will do to you.

Either way, I still don't want to give up on Evans. The Bills face the Chiefs, Niners, Dolphins, Jets, and Broncos for the rest of the fantasy season, and that's hardly a murderer's row of pass defenses. If the offensive line can get any sort of pass protection for Edwards -- and they should, considering the running game from last night should attract attention -- Evans will begin slipping through secondaries again.

This seems like as good a place as any to point out that in one of my fantasy leagues the commissioner wouldn't switch us over to fleaflicker. On this other site -- a major one -- the player news for Evans says that he's fallen into "obscurity" ever since Edwards' concussion against the Cardinals in Week 5. Really? I count 15 catches for 205 yards and a score in Weeks 7-8 combined -- his two best games of the year by far. A little accuracy, please ... but that's why you come to FanHouse.

Evans is obviously your biggest of the week. Some other

Edwards -- Contrary to my sentiment with Evans, I would jump ship here. There may even be a J.P. Losman sighting.

David Garrard -- They were playing the mighty Titans, and the running game is starting to find its stride. That only opens up more passing lanes in the near future.

Deuce McAllister -- He's just not getting the touches, even with Reggie Bush out of the picture. I wouldn't be buying. Sell him if you still can.

Matt Hasselbeck -- He looked like himself for the most part, but then he'd miss receivers and threw too many picks. That's rust, my friends, and he'll get it chipped off before the fantasy playoffs.

Terrell Owens -- Speaking of rust, Tony Romo is not going to sit back and let the game come to him for long. When he starts firing, T.O. will be the beneficiary.

Kyle Orton -- He didn't look totally healthy, and his stat-line was a byproduct of the entire Bears team just stinking up Lambeau.

Philip Rivers -- You don't face the ferocious Steelers defense in bad weather every week. That was an aberration.

Santana Moss -- I'm worried, to say the least, but he still has talent and we knew Jason Campbell likes to look for him.

Matt Ryan -- That was a really bad defense he faced, and still couldn't muster quality fantasy stats. I have, however, come to trust the rookie. I believe he bounces back.

Willis McGahee -- Facing the Giants defense and a steep deficit does not add up to a healthy running stat-line.

Julius Jones -- Time to simply give up.

Marques Colston -- I'm not ready to call him a bust, but it's apparent we aren't going to be able to trust him as an elite wideout this season.

Some for the week

Steve Slaton -- Colts run defense without Bob Sanders? I'd have had a banner fantasy day. On the other hand, there are a lot of bad run defenses left on the slate. Hold onto the kid.

Marshawn Lynch -- He ran hard last night. The Bills will have to rely upon him with the passing game in shambles. Hold him as well.

Pierre Thomas -- He is rendered virtually useless whenever Reggie Bush returns, and that will be sooner rather than later.

Marvin Harrison -- Just when I thought he was done. Of course, last time he had a big week he followed it up with several terrible ones. I'd feel comfortable selling him.

Dwayne Bowe -- The only thing preventing him from being an every week starter all season was inconsistent quarterback play in Kansas City. Well, now that Tyler Thigpen is in the picture, you can feel free to use Bowe every week as a WR2.

Ted Ginn -- Up and down, up and down ... noticing a pattern? He's doing his Lee Evans' impersonation!

J.P. Losman -- I have no news or anything on whether or not he'll get the starting job soon. I'm just saying that Edwards was abysmal last night and the Bills are fighting for a playoff spot.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- The Bengals haven't been bad the past two weeks, but they've been at home and had a bye week to prepare for Philly. I don't think you can expect many great days from Housh moving forward.

Ben Watson -- As I said yesterday, I don't expect the Patriots to keep throwing the ball this much. Even if they do, there are a lot of mouths to feed before Mr. Watson's.

Jerramy Stevens -- Fool me once ...

Fantasy Value Machine: Do Not Give up on Lee Evans Just Yet originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 18 Nov 2008 12:05:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Matt Cassel is Not a Stud

Matt Snyder — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Entering the season, it likely wouldn't have shocked people if you told them the Patriots quarterback would throw for 400 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets in Week 11. Of course, that was when golden boy Tom Brady was at the helm.

But Matt Cassel?

Seriously? He even threw in 62 rushing yards for good measure.

He's coming around, but he's not a weekly fantasy starter. He's most certainly not a stud. The Patriots were forced to throw the football all game because of their lackluster backfield talent teamed with the Jets ferocious run defense. Cassel attempted 51 passes, which was 13 higher than his previous season high. He's usually in the low 30s when it comes to passing attempts.

With Sammy Morris regaining his health, I expect the Patriots to play more ball control football in the next few weeks. Don't get me wrong, Cassel's a fine start in good matchups -- like Week 14 in Seattle. It's just that when he plays the Steelers in Week 13 you don't want to use him. When he plays the Raiders in Week 15, the Pats will be tearing up the silver and black on the ground instead of passing. Etc.

Don't get overzealous, because he's still not Tom Brady.

Other Reality Checks

Kerry Collins to Justin Gage - Well, that's two weeks in a row they've hooked up for a touchdown, and this time it was twice. It seems like the Jags tried to copy the Bears blueprint from the previous week and eliminate the run. Collins is showing the Titans are not a one-dimensional offensive team, and that game-plan isn't exactly the key to success for opposing defenses. It's pick your poison, but I'd still be leaning more on the running attack here. Gage isn't a reliable option, and Collins is more of an injury/desperation replacement most weeks.

Ryan Grant - The Packers seem to have realized the offense needs to flow through the running game, and they just gashed a top five run defense. Grant had a field day against the Bears, and he's got the Saints on tap next. In my view, he's back. Just like last year, Grant's going to pay dividends down the stretch for his fantasy owners who stuck by him.

Shaun Hill - First things first: He's not going to face the Rams every week. On the flip-side, if you make the fantasy championship in Week 16, he sees them again. Along the way, I'd look to spot start him against the Jets and Bills if you don't have an elite quarterback. He's definitely worth owning, as all Mike Martz-coached signal-callers are.

The Carolina Panthers - Jake Delhomme threw for less than 100 yards against the Lions at home. I think at this point the writing is on the wall. Delhomme and Steve Smith are taking a back seat to the stellar running game. As long as the Panthers don't fall far behind -- and they won't much with that defense -- they seem pretty content to just shove the ball down opposing defenses' throats with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. I wouldn't be starting Delhomme anytime soon, and I'd strongly consider benching Smith when the matchup is tough -- like against Atlanta next week. Both Stewart and Williams are usable, especially when they play the Broncos in Week 15, for example.

Peyton Hillis - That was a complete mirage. The Falcons were not going to let the studly receiving duo beat them, so Hillis snuck in for two scores. He does have an incredibly easy matchup next week against the Raiders, but after that I'm not convinced he'll ever put up numbers again.

Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington - Hightower's done with the easy part of the schedule for runners -- save for one matchup against the Rams -- and he only was productive in fantasy for one of the three easy games. You cannot count on him against the Giants or Eagles in the next two games. Arrington scored twice with 11 touches, but he's still only the third-down back and won't be consistent enough to be owned in fantasy. The main thing here is that Edgerrin James is completely done playing football this season.

The New York Giants - They simply don't have to pass anymore. The running game is that good. The offensive line and Brandon Jacobs set the tone early by punishing the Ravens' stout front up and down the field. Jacobs and Derrick Ward are both presently more valuable than Eli Manning and Plaxico Burress. There are many tough matchups coming up for the runners, but none are as tough as the Ravens. Start the runners, especially Jacobs, who is easily a RB1 in all formats.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Matt Cassel is Not a Stud originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Value Machine: Rising/Falling Panthers

Matt Snyder — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:10:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

What we saw this past weekend in Oakland was a mind-boggling shift in value for several guys on one team, both up and down.

Jake Delhomme was atrocious. He completed only seven passes to his own team while heaving four picks. His 72 yards passing for the game was 21 less than Jay Cutler achieved on one play ... and the Panthers were playing the Raiders. His value will never get any lower.

Steve Smith only caught one pass for nine yards, as he was locked up all day by Nmamdi Asomugha. His value can't get much lower.

Jonathan Stewart was banged up and only gained 21 yards on seven carries. He's losing carries to DeAngelo Williams, so his value is also really, really low right now.

That brings us to Williams, who -- just as we said he would -- ran all over the Raiders for 140 yards and a breakaway 69 yard score. The value won't get any higher for Williams.

The Panthers face the hapless Lions this week, so you'd expect an uptick from Delhomme, Smith, and Stewart without a Williams letdown.

Some Other

Mewelde Moore -- The bad news on Fast Willie elevates Moore to full-time status. Ride Moore these next two weeks against the Chargers and Bengals ... but after that the schedule tightens down considerably. Make a mental note.

Steve Breaston -- Man, Kurt Warner was obsessed with Breaston in the first half, wasn't he? Then he stopped throwing to him. Breaston's going to be an erratic performer from here on out, and I'd much prefer consistency.

Ryan Grant -- 75 yards and a rushing touchdown against the stout Vikes run defense is a good sign.

DeSean Jackson -- He put up some quality points against a tough, physical defense. Looks like he'll remain a focal point of the Eagles offense.

Marques Colston -- Finally! Hold onto him ...

Kevin Smith -- He's emerging as The Man in the Lions backfield. While that's not saying much, there's something to be said for guaranteed carries.

Tyler Thigpen -- Three straight stellar outings, and now you have to consider him a fantasy starter nearly across the board. A look ahead at his schedule shows lots of holes in opposing defenses, too.

Tight Ends -- Already been covered by Shane Bacon.

Some Other
Willie Parker -- Be careful here. Reports are surfacing that he's out for the season. Still, Willie insists he does not have a torn labrum and he'll be back.

Tim Hightower -- Time to bail if you still can. He couldn't find room to run against a vulnerable Niners defense. The matchup this weekend is enticing, but you should be using that to sell him. The schedule after that really firms up, running defense-wise.

Lee Evans -- Did I jinx him earlier this year when I declared him a must-start every week? Two straight stinkers. Well, the Browns, Chiefs, and Niners pass defenses are coming in the next three weeks. We'll wait until after those games before passing judgment about possible jinxes. I still love him as a WR1 moving forward.

Trent Edwards -- He's struggling, but -- as I just said -- the Bills face some porous defenses coming up, which should be the perfect remedy.

Ben Roethlisberger -- He's either banged up physically or mentally, but I like him to bounce back. Remember, the Colts pass defense is really solid.

Marshawn Lynch -- Offensive line issues have doomed Lynch's ascent to fantasy stardom in recent weeks. If he can't fix things against Cleveland I'll start worrying.

Bernard Berrian -- No catches. That sucked. Of course, the Packers have a much better pass defense than ground control. Before last week he had been incredibly consistent, and I look for him to get back to that level.

The Rams -- What a pathetic excuse for a game. They really need Steven Jackson back (so do I).

Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Aaron Rodgers -- They just played terribly. The Bears wretched pass defense visits Lambeau this weekend, though.

Fantasy Value Machine: Rising/Falling Panthers originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Monday Fantasy Football Reality Check: You Can't Stop the 27 Train

Matt Snyder — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

I haven't done a good job of hiding my love for Brandon Jacobs this season, and I don't plan to start doing so anytime soon. He's a beast, and even a solid run defense like the Eagles crumbles when he's barreling down upon them. We now have nine weeks in the books, and Jacobs has only had one bad game. He's on pace for 1432 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, after scoring nine times in the past seven games.

While others are scared by the presence of Derrick Ward and Ahmed Bradshaw alongside Jacobs in the Giants' backfield, I realize those two actually help him. He's not going to wear down -- he's only averaging 17 carries per game, but gaining 5.3 yards per carry. You can also count on the Giants have a lot of leads to protect, which means they'll be keeping the ball on the ground to keep that clock running and the chains moving. The overwhelming majority of the goal-line touches are his as well.

Basically what I'm saying is that even when you see the Baltimore Ravens on Jacobs' schedule, you needn't bother sitting him. Yes, I know the Steelers held him down in a similar defensive scheme to the Ravens. Even more reason he'll come out with a vengeance, as far as I'm concerned.

Other Reality Checks

- The Titans running game is fine. The Bears stacked the box with eight or even nine guys all game to dare the Titans into throwing the football. If there's an owner in a state of panic about Chris Johnson's abysmal day yesterday against the studly Bears run defense, buy low on him in a trade. He's the most talented rookie runner in an extremely talented crop.

- Matt Hasselbeck is coming back this coming week, and the Seahawks are facing the Cardinals. The Cards will have a short week of preparation, sport a mediocre pass defense, and will likely shred the Seahawks pathetic defense. That means Hasselbeck's going to be throwing the football all day. I like him as an add if he's available on the waiver wire and would trade a RB4 or WR4 for him if you need QB help.

- All your Eagles are fine, stick with them. That Giants defense is just ferocious.

- Thomas Jones' value is sky-high right now, and in the next two weeks he's going to have a tough task. The Jets hit the road to face the Patriots and Titans. However, if you can stand strong with him through these two contests, he's got the Broncos, Niners, Bills, and Seahawks for the fantasy home stretch. Be a visionary and buy him high, with the playoffs in mind.

- Steve Slaton didn't have much chance against the Ravens' front, but he faces the Colts, Browns, Packers, and Raiders among others the rest of the way. He's a good buy-low this week.

Monday Fantasy Football Reality Check: You Can't Stop the 27 Train originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Value Meter: It's All About Brady Quinn

Matt Snyder — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:45:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football, NFL Fantasy Felony

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

Brady Quinn has never started an NFL game. He's only appeared in one, completing only three of eight passing attempts for 45 yards.

And I'll guarantee you he's the hottest waiver wire add this week in fantasy football. He may even have been rostered in many leagues (only six percent in fleaflicker leagues, though), but now the guy who did own him thinks he's struck fantasy gold.

Can he measure up?

The Browns do have some explosive options at receiver, even if they have issues with dropping balls or staph infections. They have a quality offensive line to provide protection for the youngster, and Jamal Lewis is an established feature back. The offense just put up its fair share of points against a really solid Baltimore Ravens defense, though they were missing personnel in the defensive backfield.

Also, don't discount the learning Quinn did while holding a clipboard for a season and a half, not to mention the built up proverbial fire in the belly. He's a competitor, and he's always been thought of as a smart QB.

His schedule lines up this way, with passing defense rank in parentheses:

- Broncos (27th)
- Bills (15th)
- Texans (14th)
- Colts (3rd)
- Titans (12th)
- Eagles (8th)
- Bengals (9th)
We'll know a lot more after his performance this week against the terrible Denver defense. If he just flat out kills it, he's worth a hold. If he has a good, but not great, game, I'd deal him in a heartbeat with those opposing defenses rounding out the schedule.

Either way, Brady's all the rage this week, and he's your top riser.

Some Other

Sage Rosenfels - Took over for the injured Schaub, and racked up 224 yards and two TDs in just a half.

Gus Frerotte - He's making sweet music with Bernard Berrian, and has easily settled into that Minnesota offense.

Calvin Johnson - I'm holding now. They are going way out of their way to get him the football, so it's not going to stop anytime soon. The WR is the focal point of the Lions offense.

Falcons D/ST - They don't play the Raiders every week. Remember that.

Ray Rice - Now is the perfect time to ship him to Willis McGahee's owner.

Anthony Gonzalez - I'd hold. The Colts are going to have to rely on the pass with the running game sputtering. He's getting more looks than Marvin Harrison.

Top Fallers

Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Derek Anderson -- Lots of owners were stung with losing QBs from their fantasy rosters this week. Schaub is out for at least a month, it sounds like Orton will miss two to three games, and Anderson has -- in my opinion -- taken his last relevant snap of the season. The QB switch signifies that the Browns are likely waving the white flag for this season and trying to see what they have in Quinn. You can't just switch back without giving Quinn enough leeway to make a few mistakes and learn on the job.

Other

Marshawn Lynch - The Jets have a tough run defense, so he had a rough time. It happens. He likely won't find a ton of running lanes against the Pats this week, either. Be ready to pounce next week, though, because that schedule reads Cleveland, KC, and SF for the next three.

Plaxico Burress - He has too much talent to sputter like this. I am starting to wonder if the Giants are trying to prove they don't need him, kinda like with Jeremy Shockey? I'd be worried if I owned him ... and you know what that means: Bargain shopping time!

Larry Johnson - Sigh. I hate to say it, but you could probably get a bargain right now for this piece of work. Kolby Smith is out for the season, and when LJ returns in Week 11 he faces a relatively easy schedule for runners the rest of the way. Just don't give much. I don't trust him.

Willis McGahee - The job is still his if he ever gets healthy.

Joseph Addai - Something just isn't right with the Indy running game right now.

Fantasy Football Value Meter: It's All About Brady Quinn originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 04 Nov 2008 14:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Tim Hightower Is Your New Flavor of the Week

Matt Snyder — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:20:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Switching running backs from an aging has-been to a rookie with really high potential was obviously the right move, and Ken Whisenhunt pulled that trigger this week. Tim Hightower took Edgerrin James' job as the feature back for Arizona, and he ran wild with it. Whisenhunt couldn't have chosen a better time to make the switch, either, knowing that their opponent this week was the St. Louis Rams ... the same team that sports the league's 30th ranked run defense.

Hightower was likely already rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues, but now his trade value is absolutely sky-high. You may think you are being a true visionary to deal him high immediately, but check out that schedule. He should have his way with the Niners and Seahawks in his next two contests. Then would be your time to sell. Hold him for now, and in two weeks he'll have three stellar games under his belt. He'll also be looking at a remaining schedule of Giants, Eagles, Rams, Vikings, and Patriots. Other than the Rams contest, there won't be many running lanes in the other games.

Other Reality Checks

- Steven Jackson just wasn't himself. The Cardinals defense did a nice job, sure, and Antonio Pittman was splitting time; but he obviously wasn't healthy enough to return to action. Expect better next week, even though the Jets -- his opponent -- have a nice run defense. He's still a stud.

- I'd trade Cedric Benson like he just acquired the bubonic plague. He went through the the unit formerly known as the Jags defense for 104 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals have a bye in Week 10, and have the pleasure of facing studly run defenses (Eagles, Steelers, Ravens) in the following three weeks.

- Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco have made me incorrect many times this season. I have nothing else to do but throw my hands up in the air and say I'm convinced. They are viable QB2s.

- At this point, I don't think I'd waste a roster spot on a single Raiders player -- outside Darren McFadden in a keeper league. They do play Denver and Kansas City in Weeks 12 and 13, respectively, but the Atlanta Falcons were in the bottom third of the league in total defense before yesterday's obliteration of the Raiders offense.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Tim Hightower Is Your New Flavor of the Week originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 03 Nov 2008 14:20:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Monday Reality Check: Welcome Roddy White to Fantasy Football Elite

Matt Snyder — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:45:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

We loved Roddy White coming into the season. The rationale was simple, he was a stud last year with Joey Harrington et al throwing to him. Whenever Matt Ryan got comfortable in the NFL, White would enjoy even better numbers. Well, it's happening right before our very eyes.

In four of the last five games, White has scored at least one touchdown and accrued over 100 yards receiving. In the other, he nabbed seven catches for 90 yards. While Ryan is still finding a comfort level in the NFL, he's likely to lean more heavily on the receivers he trusts. He obviously trusts White, as the majority of his targets head that way.

In my weekly rankings, I welcomed Lee Evans into the elite echelon of fantasy WRs, and now I'm doing the same to White. These two join Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, and Santana Moss as guys you can never, ever bench.

So, welcome, Roddy, you may now celebrate with a back-flip.

Other Reality Checks:

- Don't give up on Ronnie Brown. He had another rough outing and teams have caught onto the Wildcat, sure, but the Dolphins are playing the Broncos next week. The Broncos sport the 30th-ranked run defense in the league, and recently allowed Sammy Morris to pile up 20 fantasy points in one half.

- The Jets flat out suck. I can't justify them any longer. Stop playing Brett Favre, and move on with your life. I apologize for suggesting he was a good fantasy QB earlier in the season.

- Don't you dare ever sit Matt Schaub at home. I hope you played him this week, as I had him ranked in the top five.

- DeAngelo Williams has to be maddening to own. He's unpredictable, even in matchups where it seems easy to predict. We knew he was a decent flex play yesterday, so hopefully he was active in most lineups. Even though he's coming off a good week, it might be easy to pry him from his owner due to the fickle season ... and now is the time to strike. He has a bye next week. After that? Raiders, Lions, Falcons, Packers on the docket. Each of those four teams are ranked 23rd or lower against the run.

- Torry Holt is no longer startable in fantasy. We have to give up on the name recognition. It was one thing when no one was accruing stats on the Rams earlier in the season. Now, though, we've seen Donnie Avery outplay him two straight weeks. The Rams face some bad pass defenses in the upcoming weeks (Cards, Jets, Niners, Bears), so grab Avery if you still can. I'd sit on Holt, but not start him until he shows some sign of life.

Monday Reality Check: Welcome Roddy White to Fantasy Football Elite originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 7 Recap: Fantasy Flukes and Coincidences

Sean Lalley — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 10:44:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Strange things happen in fantasy football on a weekly basis. No matter how perfect your team looks, there's always a wild card that can disrupt everything. Sometimes, you just have to take your lumps and move onto the next week. I mean seriously, do you really think that Dan Orlovsky is going to nearly triple the fantasy production of Peyton Manning each week? Deep sigh, if you were starting Peyton yesterday, as I was.

Well, no matter how much we study the matchups, absorb knowledge and/or think we just know ... flukes can happen. It's your job to observe such freak bust-outs and flops, then monitor each situation as it relates to your team. Of course, you can always grab the latest sexy waiver wire wonders right here each week. And you can grab value information to digest on whether a certain performance was a fluke or going to be a reality moving forward.

That said, let's take a look at a few All-Star lineups that were probably crushed by a few odd, maybe even fluke performances in Week 7.

QB: Peyton Manning and Drew Brees - To put into perspective, as mentioned, Dan Orlovsky just smoked both of these guys. And that's not even the half. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco and even JaMarcus Russell trumped them. Yup, Peyton and Brees at the bottom of the barrel for QB's in Week 7. Raise your hand if you even considered starting any of the aforementioned guys? Didn't think so, but here's more salt in the wound -- Orlovsky finished as a Top 3 QB in most standard scoring leagues. Ouch!

RB: Ronnie Brown and LaDainian Tomlinson - With L.T. it's starting to sound like a broken record, as he failed to crack the Top 25 RBs for Week 7. It's getting late very early for L.T. and his owners, as the bust whispers are starting to roar. Not only was L.T. outdone this week by the likes Sammy Morris, Mewelde Moore and LenDale White, but also Ahman Green, yes - Ahman Green outscored him. Now, that just hurts. As for Ronnie Brown, his finish at the bottom of the pile can be attributed to a tough matchup.

Yet, both guys are still weekly "must" starts theoretically speaking. And if you started them together as your backfield -- you're quite bitter. I feel you.

WR: Reggie Wayne and Greg Jennings - Arguably two of the best if not thee best WR options out there right now, sans Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. And both of these guys left owners gasping for air on Sunday. At one point late in the fourth quarter, Wayne only had one catch, and most were holding out hope for at least a garbage time TD. Not to be had. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field Greg Jennings was laughing it up as a victor. However, most people were wishing he'd wipe that grin off his face, because he'd just killed a collection of fantasy teams nationwide.

Then again, you'd have never been in such a predicament had you started Antonio Bryant, Javon Walker or Josh Morgan. Yeah, like I'm sure that was an option or a thought that even crossed your mind. Oh well, how could you predict such random acts of fantasy kindness would happen? Moving forward -- are you gonna think twice about blind luck? Sure, but you still NEVER bench your stars.

These things happen in Fantasy football. No matter how much you think you've got it down pat, luck (good or bad) can always come along on Sunday afternoon. And that's why they play the games! You never do know when an Orlovsky-Mewelde Moore-Sammy Morris-Antonio Bryant-Donnie Avery roster is going to pounce a Manning-Brown-LT-Wayne-Jennings lineup. Ah yes, and that is the joy and agony of fantasy football.

Week 7 Recap: Fantasy Flukes and Coincidences originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 21 Oct 2008 10:44:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Football Reality Check: Sell LenDale White Now

Matt Snyder — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:53:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

LenDale White pierced through the defense for 149 yards on 17 carries, while hitting paydirt three times against the Kansas City Swiss Chiefs yesterday. He even had an 80-yard touchdown run. You don't need me to tell you that he won't do it again, do you?

Look, if you had White in your lineup, congratulations. Step two is to deal him for help at other positions while his stock is at its absolute apex. Yes, I'm aware the Titans face the Colts generous run defense next week in Tennessee. Here's the thing, though, the Chiefs are way worse than the Colts ... and Chris Johnson is a better running back than LenDale White.

If you are willing to concede White's 80-yard touchdown romp as a fluke, considering he's not fast enough to complete this run against an actual NFL-quality opponent, then you'll agree with me. If we throw that out -- like I said, I believe it was a fluke -- you've got a rather pedestrian 69 yards on 16 carries against a horrible defense. Johnson averaged more yards per carry, even with White's 80 yard effort.

Look, you are going to be bombarded with thoughts about how great an option White is moving forward, and people will use the schedule (Colts, Packers, Jets, Lions, Texans) as evidence his matchups are easy.

Let's just ease up on the gas here and realize he's the second-best option in his own backfield. A touchdown vulture at best. Remember, when a team employs the "thunder and lightning" approach in the backfield, you want the lightning.

Other Reality Checks

- Drew Brees and Marques Colston were caught against a buzzsaw. The Panthers were fierce, coming home off an embarrassing road loss to an apparently studly Bucs defense. It appears the Saints will be without Reggie Bush and possibly Jeremy Shockey (again) for the next few weeks at the very least. I'm not fazed. Both Brees and Colston will be elite options from here on out.

- It would appear that the Baltimore backfield, once again, belongs to Willis McGahee. LeRon McClain owners can now simply view him as a backup on his real team, and not of much value to their fantasy teams unless McGahee gets hurt again. It was a good decent ride.

- Kyle Orton is a starting fantasy quarterback until further notice. I don't care what your league's size is.

- I hope you enjoyed Mewelde Moore's fantasy day, because you won't be seeing it again. The Steelers face the tough Giants and Redskins defenses in the next two weeks. After that they get the porous Colts run D, but Willie Parker will surely be healed by then.

- Something is just not right with LaDanian Tomlinson. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, is just fine.

- Finally, I still believe the best fantasy football player is Clinton Portis. He was playing hurt yesterday.

Fantasy Football Reality Check: Sell LenDale White Now originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:53:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Reality Check: Good Luck

Matt Snyder — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 12:45:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Sunday was one of those days that made me realize why women who don't even like football jump into their husbands' leagues and win them on their first try. The guy who showed up at the fantasy draft unprepared and just guessed his way through it got a victory as well.

Let us count the ways in which we all were too smart for our own good:

The Top Ten Reasons This Week Was a Crapshoot:

1. Adrian Peterson is a stud. The Vikings are a good running team. They faced the Lions, who sported the worst defense in the NFL coming into the game ... and Peterson lost two fumbles without scoring a TD. The 111 yards were hardly a consolation in leagues where losing the ball is penalized.

2. The Colts' awful run defense was becoming legendary before our eyes. The Ravens' LeRon McClain had been running really hard in recent weeks. His owners were rewarded with -2 (yes, that's a negative) rushing yards and a lost fumble. Willis McGahee wasn't much better, either, for those who gambled.

3. The Ravens were the league's top-ranked defense against the pass. Marvin Harrison had seemingly lost a step and the Colts didn't really seem to be in sync thus far. Harrison went for two touchdowns, including a 67-yarder. I think he was seen showing up at the game in a DeLorean.

4. Patrick Cobbs outscored Randy Moss, Steven Jackson and LaDanian Tomlinson ... COMBINED.

5. Correll Buckhalter outscored Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall combined.

6. Warrick Dunn, he of the diminutive size and a thousand years of experience, has apparently overtaken the bigger, stronger, and younger Earnest Graham on the Bucs' RB depth chart.

7. Matt Ryan outscored Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Jason Campbell, Brett Favre and Jake Delhomme ... among others.

8. Jason Campbell had a worse game against the Rams at home than he had at Dallas or at New York (Giants).

9. The Cardinals D/ST unit was one of the best plays of the week ... against the insanely talented Dallas Cowboys.

10. Brett Favre had a worse game than Ryan Fitzpatrick, his counterpart in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Seriously, say that out loud and let it sink in. You would have been better off starting Fitzpatrick as opposed to Favre ... against the Bengals.

And on that note, we say good luck on Monday night. If things continue on this path, Derek Anderson is going to triple Eli Manning's fantasy points.

(Update: Sure enough, he almost did. Anderson: 310 yards and two TDs. Eli: 196, one TD, and three picks)

---

Yes, I realize there were people like Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Clinton Portis, Andre Johnson, Marion Barber, Reggie Bush, etc. who did their jobs for us. They were, however, the exception rather than the norm.

Fantasy Reality Check: Good Luck originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 13 Oct 2008 12:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 5 Fantasy Football Value Machine: Go Get MegaTron

Matt Snyder — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

Well, that sucked. I'm not one to hide my mistakes, so I'll link the post where I pleaded with fantasy owners to not bench Calvin Johnson. He awarded owners with less than three measly points. Hey, I stand by my reasons. The Bears had been awful against the pass, Nathan Vasher was going to sit, and Charles Tillman was even questionable. So what happened? The Bears defense just physically dominated the Lions offense. Maybe they were tired of giving up passing yards and stepped up their game. Maybe Jon Kitna was too teary-eyed after the departure of Matt Millen. Whatever the reason, Johnson's fantasy owners suffered along with Lions fans in Week 5.

If you stumble across an irrational Johnson owner, now is the time to strike. He's uber-talented and the Lions are always going to be playing from behind. You'll see many more 15-plus point weeks over what you saw last week. Go get him.

Other value after Week 5:

Jon Kitna - As I said, they are going to be throwing with a huge deficit a lot this year.

Trent Edwards - He's going to be fine with a bye this coming week. The concussion effects will have disappeared before the next time he plays ... which will be at home.
Matt Schaub - He's going to be fine as well. At least you don't have to be worried about Schaub losing his job to Sage Rosenfels anymore.

Matt Hasselbeck - The Giants are a really tough defense on opposing QBs, so that game shouldn't have been a huge shock -- except to Chris Berman, who, for some godforsaken reason, picked the 'Hawks.

Donovan McNabb - Redskins D is tough, he'll be fine.

Adrian Peterson - Aberration City.

Larry Johnson - And I'm not one bit surprised. Hope you sold him after he shredded the Broncos.

Marshawn Lynch - It's going to be a rare occurrence when the Bills have to throw all game while playing catchup. Great buy-low if the owner overreacts.

Deuce McAllister - Just as we warned you, you can't run up the middle against the Vikes. Deuce is a very tasty buy-low.

Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal - Don't count them out just yet.

LaDanian Tomlinson - Says his toe is hurting him, and it shows.

Santonio Holmes - Seems like Big Ben prefers Hines Ward, but Santonio has much better game-breaking ability.

Santana Moss - It was Clinton Portis' day Sunday, but Moss is still the top receiving option for Jason Campbell.

Chad Johnson - Don't buy. He sucks.

Antonio Gates - That was a bad game all-around by the Chargers, so it's hard to blame Gates.

value after Week 5:

Brandon Jacobs - I love him, but it's doubtful you'll see many more 25-plus point weeks.

Aaron Rodgers - Looks like the shoulder is fine after all.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Looks like the Bengals passing offense still has a pulse. Unlike Ocho, he's a good option moving forward and I wouldn't sell.

Roddy White - He'll get a lot of attention against the same Bears who shut down Calvin Johnson.

Chris Cooley - Now, there he is! Let's hope we continue to see more of his numbers and less of his man-parts.

Bernard Berrian - Time to bail. Most of the time the Vikings are going to run the football, but that game last night was all upside-down. The Saints showed that you can throw all your weight at Adrian Peterson and still lose, so teams won't be rushing to abandon Berrian deep.

Ronnie Brown, Matt Forte, and Steve Slaton - Hold. For the rest of the season. Please.

Domenik Hixon - Sell now, with Plaxico Burress' impending re-arrival.

Devery Henderson - That was nice if you happened to be starting him, but next time you plug him into your lineup you'll get a two-point clunker. Make him someone else's problem.

Matt Ryan - The rookie is showing more and more on a weekly basis.

Felix Jones - Not often he'll outscore Marion Barber, but he did it.

Greg Camarillo - Better numbers than Anthony Fasano.

Specific questions concerning your fantasy team? Hit us up via the inbox and we'll be happy to help.

Week 5 Fantasy Football Value Machine: Go Get MegaTron originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Reality Check: DeAngelo Roars

Matt Snyder — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Those earmarking Jonathan Stewart for a stellar week knew what they were doing. You can run on the Chiefs. You can run all over them -- which makes Denver's game plan last week so much more inexplicable, though that's a whole different subject altogether.

The problem was, the wrong Panthers running back got nasty.

I do have to self-pimp and point out that we were recommending DeAngelo Williams as a good flex option during the Sunday Morning Tailgate. This is because the Panthers split up the carries and you can never really tell which guys is going to get his on a given day. Williams actually had more carries before Sunday than Stewart (55 to 45). He just hadn't scored yet and Stewart had seen paydirt four times.

Now he's scored three times -- one via reception. I think moving forward we have to consider this an absolute split backfield, much like the Jacksonville situation with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew has been for the past couple years.

With good matchups, both running backs will be worthy of a RB2 gamble in larger leagues. With tough ones you'll have to hope they put up RB3 numbers.

One thing is for sure, we should not have been giving Stewart all our attention down in Carolina. DeAngelo deserved his as well. Now he'll get it.

Other Reality Checks

- Isaac Bruce is clearly the top receiving option for the Niners, as J.T. O'Sullivan seems to feel comfortable with him even in the red zone. He's a quality option as a WR3 every week.

- Ryan Grant isn't dead yet. Sure, he should have put up better numbers against the Falcons, but the Packers were too busy trying to come back all game, which is opposite of what we expected. Carrying the rock 18 times for 83 yards isn't all too much discouraging. The Packers get the Seahawks -- who didn't enjoy Brandon Jacobs much this week -- and the Colts' porous run defense in the next two weeks. I'd stay the course here for two more tries.

- Andre Johnson is back. Hopefully you bought low, because he's going to remain an elite option for the rest of the season.

- Kyle Orton is not going to play the Lions every week. Everyone will remind you of this in light of his huge game yesterday. The thing is, he's been a good fantasy option for three straight weeks. The upcoming schedule presents the Falcons, Vikings, and Lions again for the Bears' next three opponents. Add him to your roster if still available on the waiver wire. The defense will continue to put him in position to throw touchdown passes.

- It looks like Carson Palmer is going to salvage the fantasy season for many-an-owner of his. He passed well against the Giants, then missed a game due to injury. He shook off the rust as the game in Dallas moved along, and should find good passing holes against the Jets this coming week. You could probably still buy him cheap if you need QB help.

Fantasy Reality Check: DeAngelo Roars originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Value Machine: Thanks Carson!

Matt Snyder — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 11:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football, NFL Fantasy Felony

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

Hopefully you traded Rashard Mendenhall, as we insinuated last week when we said his value will never be higher. Remember, fantasy sports are all about value and perception is reality in between games. Many owners flocked to Mendenhall last week because he was "replacing" Willie Parker. His perceived value skyrockets, which means it's the perfect time to spin him. Just keep this in mind as we move forward.

Top week four : Laveranues Coles ... He busted loose for 30 plus points in most leagues. The problem is that he didn't receive the majority of Brett Favre's attention and rarely will this result in three scores. Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, and Dustin Keller all take looks away from Coles. This was a one week ride, so hopefully you enjoyed it and can move him for good value this week.

Top week four : Carson Palmer ... He comes off his one good game of the season -- against a solid defense, no less -- and decides to not fully disclose his injury. Owners found out he couldn't go right before game time, and surely some guys were screwed over by this. Keep an eye on his health, because if he can come back, his owners will surely be pissed enough to deal him for less than market value.

Also

Matt Hasselbeck - It's actually the perfect time to buy, as long as his owner isn't paying attention. The receiving corps has been decimated, but Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are both ready to return to action.

Marc Bulger - After only a one week hiatus from the starting lineup, he's back ... with a new coach.

Jake Delhomme - Second week with Steve Smith back, and he has a solid week.

Steven Jackson - Busted through for a 25 point outing. His team does, however, still suck.

Earnest Graham - Bounce back after facing some studly run defense in Chicago. He's a fine option moving forward, so I wouldn't sell.

Shaun Alexander - There's talk he'll end up on the Steelers with Fast Willie banged up and Mendenhall done. I still think his good running days are behind him, though, so if he signs, immediately trade him.

Deuce McAllister - Great to see from a great guy who has endured too many injuries in his career. He's not done afterall.

Michael Bush - With Justin Fargas on the shelf and Darren McFadden not totally healthy, Bush is showing himself a capable NFL back.

Lance Moore - We liked him all week, leading up to a game that even surpassed our expectations. I'd hold him at least through this week against the Vikings ... but after that you have to start eying the impending return of Marques Colston, which will murder Moore's value.

Muhsin Muhammad - They only play the Falcons twice, Steve Smith is the top air target, and the Panthers like to run the football. Consider last week an aberration and bail.

Kevin Walter - The Jags were paying so much attention to Andre Johnson that they forgot to guard anyone else. Walter won't be putting up these kinds of numbers again anytime soon, so he's a good sell.

Derrick Mason - Call me crazy, but I'd hold. The Steelers play the pass well, and Mason still had a great game. Joe Flacco is going to progress as a passer as the season goes along, and he seems to trust Mason the most. Obviously Mason's far from elite, but as a spot-start he'll be just fine.

Devin Hester - He caught that TD, sure, but he also dropped a surefire score in the first half. He's my favorite player of all-time and I'm telling you to sell him if you can. What's that tell you?

Zach Miller - That was a long touchdown ... skewing his stat line.

Greg Olsen - Two good weeks, and two bad ones. Sounds like a sell-high following a good one.

Also

Aaron Rodgers - Subpar game, and he's injured now. He either plays through a shoulder injury or sits. Either way, that doesn't help your team.

J.T. O'Sullivan - The Saints pass defense hadn't exactly been stellar heading into the week, and JTO still didn't do a ton with his opportunity on the road. There's enough reason to still like his chances moving forward, though, so look past the week for now.

Ben Roethlisberger - They were playing the Ravens. He will need a running game behind him, ultimately, but for now you should expect better numbers than last night.

Pierre Thomas - Not a buy, as long as Deuce is healthy. Pierre's been surpassed on the depth chart.

Matt Forte - There is no better time to buy than immediately. He was held to 43 yards on 19 carries, but it was against the Eagles. That's three stout run defenses in a row Forte has had to deal with. Three of the next four games, though, are against the Lions and Falcons. Go get him.

Marshawn Lynch - Ten points against the Rams? Ugh. He'll be back ...

Willis McGahee - He can't stay healthy and LeRon McClain runs hard. I wouldn't be buying here. Get McClain.

Marion Barber - The Cowboys abandoned the run, and Terrell Owens is bitching? What an absolute farce. If anyone should be complaining it's Barber. Of course, unlike T.O., he's not pathetically selfish.

Ryan Grant - I'm starting to get worried ... BUT, if Rodgers is hurt the Pack must run.

Anquan Boldin - He had another great game, but he almost died on the field thanks to an obliteration to the dome. I wonder what Drew Rosenhaus is trying to do to Eric Smith?

Chris Chambers - A slight dip in production, but he'll be back.

Brandon Lloyd - The injury is a concern, so keep an eye on it. If he does end up being alright, he's going to be a good play against the Lions this weekend as the Bears number one wideout.

Chansi Stuckey - Favre threw six TDs, and none to Stuckey. He had shown love to Stuckey earlier in the season, so here is a really, really cheap buy this week.

Hank Baskett - Reggie Brown is back, DeSean Jackson is a valuable playmaker, and Kevin Curtis will be back eventually. Baskett has nearly no value left.

Jerry Porter - The Jags finally got something done through the air. Of course, Porter only caught one ball for six yards.

David Patten - Drew Brees torched the Niners, and Patten only came away with one catch while Lance Moore and Robert Meachem blossomed in front of everyone's eyes.

Antonio Bryant - Welcome back to Earth, Antonio.

Chris Cooley - He's yet to get things going in this offense, which seems to be heavily reliant upon Clinton Portis and the outside receivers. I'd give him another week or two before giving him a shot, but he could be had for really cheap right now, I'm sure.

Tony Scheffler - He was blanketed by the Chiefs, but I'm not expecting that to continue. He's a fine buy this week.

Fantasy Value Machine: Thanks Carson! originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 30 Sep 2008 11:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Reality Check: All About Favre

Matt Snyder — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:55:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

I think Peter King, John Madden, Chris Berman, and Tony Kornheiser all had a spring in their step last night. Oh sure, there are more media guys obsessed with Brett Favre, but those are the guys who immediately come to mind for me when it comes to excessive love affairs over a player by the media. Anyway, cue up the hysteria yet again, as Brettfavre (remember, it's one word ... you can't say one without the other) torched the scoreboard to the tune of six touchdown passes yesterday.

Six touchdown passes. That's just out of this world.

His counter-part, Kurt Warner, let loose for 472 yards. What was in the water in New York? I'm sure the Mets could have used some of it (oops, sorry Mets fans ... too soon?). Seriously, though, can we count on Brettfavre's return to being an elite fantasy QB from here on out?

Acutally, I'm going to say yes. The Jets have a bye this week, but after that they face the Bengals, Raiders, and Chiefs. Should be smooth sailing for Favre owners in starting him for those games. The rest of the way he sees passing friendly St. Louis, Denver, San Fran, and Seattle among others.

It's retro-Favre in 2008. Sit back and enjoy him should be an owner.

Other Reality Checks

Edgerrin James
The nine carries for 29 yards speak volumes, especially when you consider Tim Hightower had six carries. Sure, the Cards were down a substantial amount of points for most of the game, but the Jets didn't even score in the first quarter. The Cards are obviously realizing what we all knew coming into the season ... Edge is done. Don't let those two TDs skew your opinion.

Matt Schaub
Easily saved his job in sparkling fashion, hitting on 29 of 40 passes for 307 yards and three TDs. More importantly, he didn't turn the ball over, nor did he rely heavily upon Andre Johnson. This game, though a loss to his real team, was a great omen for Schaub fantasy owners. He'll be a quality QB2 from here on out in any league.

Michael Turner
Don't say you weren't warned. Those Lions and Chiefs games are going to easily be the high point of his season. It won't be close.

Larry Johnson
I hate being wrong, but I can admit it. LJ pummeled me this week. I couldn't have been more vocal against Johnson's chances for a good game, and he trounced the sneaky-awful Broncos defense. Bad call by me. More impactful, though, was the realization that the Broncos get killed by opposing runners (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, and now LJ). I'm not backing off my proclamation that Johnson is not a good fantasy option moving forward. I am, however, going to hype any RB facing the Broncos from now on.

Fantasy Reality Check: All About Favre originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Value Machine: Fast Willie Goes Down, Mendenhall Slides Up

Matt Snyder — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:10:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Position Rankings, NFL Sleepers, Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football, NFL Fantasy Felony

Value Machine checks out the overall perceived value of fantasy players. If you want to commit a fantasy felony, you'll sell high on the up arrow guys and buy low on the down arrow guys.

We caught a glimpse of vintage Willie Parker in week one, and have since seen a steady decline. The points -- we'll round and generalize, as many leagues use different scoring formats -- have gone from 30 to 10 to 2. And now he's hurt. He will not play in week four. He didn't score a TD in the past two weeks after putting a three-score hurtin' on the Houston Texans in week one. Even if he comes back, you have enough evidence to worry about durability and week one being fluky (for what it's worth, he did have a 100-yard game in week two ... but that was on less than four yards per carry).

In light of this, Willie Parker is your top this week.

On the flip side, your top in value is Rashard Mendenhall. Fast Willie received 53 carries in the first two weeks, so you know the Steelers like to run the football. Mewelde Moore becomes the de facto backup to Mendenhall, and he's nothing more than a third-down back. Expect Mendenhall to get 20-plus touches per game while Parker sits. Also, Mendenhall's value will never be higher, because people love the "new guy" starter ... and Mendenhall's likely to get stuffed all night against the Ravens this week.

Other

Philip Rivers -- Gotta consider him an elite option at this point. Don't sell. Just enjoy.

Jason Campbell -- He's got a little something going in Jim Zorn's offense with Santana Moss.

Steve Slaton -- What a coming out party that was in Tennessee. We loved Slaton in the preseason here at FanHouse, so it wasn't altogether shocking.

Correll Buckhalter -- Came through with some good stats after Brian Westbrook's exit. Westbrook now has a high ankle sprain, which poses a significant issue for a guy that uses speed and agility as his main weapons.

Trent Green -- He's now the starter in St. Louis, so there's that. The bad news is that the Rams are just brutal.

Brandon Lloyd -- He's emerged as the clear-cut number one WR option for the Bears. Sure, they don't rely upon the pass, but a number one wideout is still a viable option. Oh yeah, in weeks five through nine -- when you'll likely be missing guys due to bye weeks -- the Bears face the Lions twice and the Falcons. Stash Lloyd now.

Carson Palmer -- Quality numbers against the stellar Giants defense, so maybe he's not dead after all?

Brady Quinn -- Derek Anderson is down to his last chance. Unfortunately for Quinn, it's the Bengals. Quinn's stock is rising because everyone has given up on Anderson, but Anderson could torch Cincy, so let's hold off on the love for now.

Julius Jones -- Two straight big weeks, and it appears that with a decimated receiving corps Mike Holmgren is ready to keep the ball on the ground. We'll see, but I don't think his value ever rises higher than it currently is.

Chansi Stuckey -- Brett Favre loves him. You know how he always finds way to get the ball to guys he loves.

LeRon McClain -- Two TDs and more carries than Willis McGahee. He's surely a coveted player in all fantasy leagues this week. I suspect that once McGahee is finally full-go, McClain is relegated to backup duties again, though.

Joseph Addai -- He's back. Once the Colts offense can stay on the field for more than a third of the game he'll get more carries, too.

Antonio Bryant -- He was the main benefactor of Brian Griese's onslaught, and is thus worth a look should Joey Galloway continue to miss games.

Other

Jeremy Shockey -- Sports hernia. Ouch. The reports say three-to-six weeks ... and I'm betting on the latter being much more realistic.

Brian Westbrook -- As I said above, the ankle sprain poses significant issues for Westbrook for the next few weeks.

Marc Bulger -- Lost his job, not that he was doing much with it anyway. Don't buy.

Derek Anderson -- As I stated earlier, this week is his absolute last chance as the Browns' starting QB. It is, however, his first chance against a subpar defense. I'm going out on a limb and predicting he blows up and keeps the job.

Jon Kitna -- He sprained his knee after a really lackluster day against the Niners' defense. Zero TDs to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson is not good.

Jonathan Stewart -- His value was sky-high after week two. Then he faced a stellar run defense in Minnesota. If you catch an owner of Stewart's that lacks foresight, trade for him now. He proved his value in the second half against the Bears ... and they face the stop-the-run challenged Falcons this week at home. He's gonna go nuts.

Brandon Jacobs -- Other than the touchdown, that was a pathetic effort against the Bengals at home Sunday.

Plaxico Burress -- Just when you think you can count him as a top-five option, he pulls a disappearing act.

Bryant Johnson -- Someone on Sunday Morning Tailgate called me a homer because I recommended Marvin Harrison over Johnson ... which was weird since I'm a Bears fan. Either way, scoreboard. Three points against the Lions defense? That's a precursor for a season of unpredictable fluctuation. Not fun for Johnson's owners.

Andre Johnson -- The Texans are probably going to be a bit unpredictable all season following the destruction of Hurricane Ike in their hometown. That being said, you have to assume last Sunday will be one of Johnson's least productive of the season.

Fantasy Value Machine: Fast Willie Goes Down, Mendenhall Slides Up originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Reality Check: Ronnie's Back ... And He Can Throw

Matt Snyder — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 14:15:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Five touchdowns. Five (if you include the pass). We aren't gonna see that day again this season, not from Ronnie Brown or anyone else. Hopefully those who owned Ronnie in Fantasyland were fortunate enough to have him in their starting lineups. What can we expect moving forward, though?

Simply put, I believe we just saw proof that Ronnie's now fully healed from his knee injury. Before the injury in '07, Brown was one of the top fantasy RBs in the league. The Dolphins are going to keep him as the starter with Ricky Williams occasionally spelling him or joining him in the backfield -- which happened several times Sunday.

Brown and the Dolphins now have a bye week ... which will help just in case his knee really wasn't 100 percent yet, and will come back for week five against the Chargers at home. Though the matchup isn't overly easy, Ronnie just proved to each and every one of us that you can't take the chance of having him on your bench. He's a RB2 in most leagues, but may seep his way into RB1 territory by the end of the year -- especially with so many first round picks crapping out.

Other Reality Checks:

Earnest Graham and Brian Griese, Bucs
Graham was awful, and Griese threw for over 400 yards. The thing is, the Bears completely stifled all running lanes, and the Bucs were forced to air it out an unGodly 67 times compared to only 17 rushing attempts. That's not likely to happen on a weekly basis, so we can chalk it up as a fluke. Do be aware, however, that this is an option in Jon Gruden's mind if/when the Bucs match up against stout run defenses. Overall, though, Graham is still a better option most weeks.

Rudi Johnson and Kevin Smith, Lions
All signs point to the fact that Rudi took this job and ran with it yesterday. He only carried the ball 14 times, but made it into 83 yards while also catching a 34 yard TD. Moving forward, Smith is going to be rendered worthless and Rudi is a quality RB3. Let's keep in mind that the Lions only gave Rudi 14 carries yesterday because they were getting whipped. That's going to happen often.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs
It's not often the Chiefs get to play a defense as bad as the Falcons, so hopefully you LJ owners/lovers enjoyed that last gasp of fantasy fun with him. Looking at the next five games, I can't see him topping 12 points in any of them (vs. DEN, @ CAR, vs. TEN, @ NYJ, vs. TB). Sell high if you still can.

Randy Moss, Patriots
Don't say you weren't warned. The Cardinals absolutely torched the Dolphins secondary, and Matt Cassel couldn't even get Moss the ball in space. He's been known to mentally shut it down when saddled with subpar QBs in the past, so I'd be very worried if I were a Moss owner. I mean, his longest catch yesterday went for seven yards.

Fantasy Reality Check: Ronnie's Back ... And He Can Throw originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 22 Sep 2008 14:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week Two Fantasy Value Machine: Jay Culter Legit, Even Without Help

Matt Snyder — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

Value Machine checks the current value of non-obvious names -- no Tony Romo or Brian Westbrook here -- for owners looking to scope out the trade market.

For the record, the most egregious thing about Ed Hochuli's snafu is being overlooked by everyone. I officiate high school -- I understand I'm far less qualified to complain than an NFL official, but this does make me more qualified than someone sitting at their computer claiming the "refs cheated" -- and the worst part about the call was the fact that the ball went backwards. Even if Hochuli thought, in real time, Jay Cutler's arm went forward, the ball still went backwards. A backwards pass is a loose ball. How the referee can't see that from even with the QB is beyond me. People keep talking about the whistle, but it's not acceptable to blow it there. I still respect him as an official, because human error is part of the game. Human error like this, though, shouldn't happen in such a high level game.

Even without the extra points, that he never should have accrued, Cutler had another big game. With two young, studly receiving speedsters and a reliable tight end, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. This time, the Broncos actually played a legitimate defense. You don't want to expect around 30 points a week, but it's very reasonable to start expecting 20. Jay Cutler is your top for week two.

Other
Philip Rivers -- Two straight big weeks, and I'm not expecting it to stop anytime soon.

Aaron Rodgers -- Sure, he got fat against the Lions ... but we need to realize the confidence is building in Green Bay. Both for Rodgers himself and in him by everyone else. A slow start could have been disastrous.

Kurt Warner -- Shredded the Dolphins at home, and his stock won't get much higher. You do have to consider, though, that he plays in a division with really subpar defenses.

Jason Campbell -- Huge bounce-back game and came through with a clutch bomb. Expect improvement as the season progresses and he gets more comfortable in the new offense.

J.T. O'Sullivan -- Survived the debacle that was week one, and now the Mike Martz-related love can commence.

Julius Jones -- The Seahawks WRs are all hurt, as is Maurice Morris ... so Julius was heavily leaned upon. Expect that to continue, however, 20 point weeks aren't going to be commonplace from here on out.

Jonathan Stewart -- Huge second half effort against a strong Bears run defense surely moves him above DeAngelo Williams on the depth chart.

Anquan Boldin -- Three TDs, six catches, tons of yards. Larry Fitzgerald is still the top option for the Cards, though, so it may be a good time to explore trade options.

Santana Moss -- He and Campbell look to have good chemistry, and the deep threat is a fantasy treat.

Chris Chambers -- That's seven TDs in nine starts for the Chargers. Get him active every week.

Robert Meachem -- While owners rushed to nab Devery Henderson and David Patten this week, Meachem was the one who came through with a receiving touchdown.

John Carlson -- Matt Hasselbeck has to throw to someone.

Tony Scheffler -- Cutler is really spreading around the love, and it's not going to hurt to own any of the guys grabbing his throws.

Michael Turner was all the rage last week, but we told you to sell high on him. It may not still be too late, but he's shown his colors now in a NLG (non-Lions game). His value took the biggest hit in week two. Obviously, his five-point effort is lower than we should expect, but you're never gonna see that 35 again.

Other
Jake Delhomme -- Terrible week, but it was against a solid defense. Definite buy-low time with Steve Smith coming back this week ... if you find an owner stupid enough to not realize it.

Marc Bulger -- The good news is that he can't get worse and the Rams are always going to be coming back from behind. The bad news is that the team flat out sucks.

David Garrard -- Protection issues are dooming his -- and his team's -- season.

Matt Hasselbeck -- No WRs leaves him turning to Carlson and Julius as his top options. That's not fun if he's your QB1.

Ryan Grant -- Pathetic effort against the pathetic Lions means he's either not healthy or just really wanted his money and has lost motivation. Solid buy-low because his value is in the can, but you'll definitely need to handcuff him with Brandon Jackson -- who scored double digit points Sunday.

Kevin Smith -- Returned to reality after not getting to face the Falcons. It's gonna be another long year in Detroit.

DeAngelo Williams -- Looks like he's already losing his job to the rookie Stewart.

Randy Moss -- I know I said no obvious names, but three points in the first full game without Tom Brady is a bad omen. He's shut down on less than stellar QBs before, so the cause for concern is certainly realistic. I'd bail, but if you disagree he could probably be had for a cheaper than market price.

Muhsin Muhammad -- For as much as he was targeted the past two weeks, the points return was quite minimal. He can make comments about his former team all he wants, but the fact remains that's he's lost a few steps and is mediocre at best. With Smith's return this week, Moose is rendered meaningless in fantasy.

Devery Henderson -- A classic one-hit wonder. He'll either get that you 84 yard TD, or virtually nothing. That's too much of a gamble in most fantasy leagues.

Anthony Fasano -- From a promising week one to a goose-egg. We may have overreacted, but it can't hurt to buy low in hopes that he starts getting back into the offensive flow.

Dante Rosario -- Like Fasano, a return to Earth after a big week one. The difference is that Steve Smith is returning, and Jonathan Stewart will be eating time from the clock. Looks like week one will be the high point of Rosario's season.

Week Two Fantasy Value Machine: Jay Culter Legit, Even Without Help originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week Two Fantasy Football Reality Check: The Brandon Marshall Plan

Matt Snyder — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:09:00 EST

Filed under: Sunday Wrap-Up, Fantasy Football

There's a ton of fallout and talk about the ending of the Chargers/Broncos game, and rightfully so. From a fantasy football perspective, though, Brandon Marshall is getting lost in the shuffle. Can you seriously even lose an 18-catch game in the proverbial shuffle?

Yes, after a one-game suspension -- for basically being an idiot -- Marshall stormed onto the scene with 18 catches, 166 yards and a touchdown. While you can't really say that he's going to catch that many balls every single week -- it was the second most in a single game in NFL history -- this huge game illustrates the rapport between Jay Cutler and Marshall. They caught fire in the later weeks last season, and this was a precursor of things to come.

At this point, you have to consider Marshall as a top-five receiver. He's obviously going to receive an inordinate amount of targets every week, and the emergence of Eddie Royal helps to alleviate some of the defensive attention from Marshall.

Do not attempt to sell high on Marshall. If you are fortunate enough to own him, hold onto him. You'll reap the rewards by season's end.

Other Reality Checks

- Larry Johnson is just not a good football player anymore. He can whine about the coaching situation or the direction of the team all he wants. The fact of the matter is that he sissy-foots into the line every time he gets the ball. It's almost like he's protesting, because a running back that really wants to succeed wouldn't just run directly into would-be tacklers. I do not believe for one second that we're seeing anything fluky. He will not be an advisable fantasy option this season.

- Derek Anderson, on the other hand, will be just fine. The weather conditions last night were horrible, and the Browns have faced two of the best teams in the NFL. Things will get much easier from here on out, though Braylon Edwards' drop issues aren't helping matters. While you'd be much better suited with Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers, Anderson is still going to be a usable fantasy quarterback this season.

- Darren McFadden is the next Adrian Peterson! Woo hoo! Settle down, Beavis. It was the Chiefs. The Chiefs are brutal. I'm a big fan of McFadden, but you can't expect 20-plus point weeks from him on a consistent basis due to the presence of Justin Fargas (or even Michael Bush) and a wildly unsuccessful passing attack. He is best suited as a matchup-based RB2 or flex option in most leagues.

Week Two Fantasy Football Reality Check: The Brandon Marshall Plan originally appeared on Fantasy FanHouse on Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:09:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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